WRAP/FEJF Inter RPO Report WRAP - Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting San Diego, CA 22 February 2007 1015a – Presentation (c)

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Presentation transcript:

WRAP/FEJF Inter RPO Report WRAP - Fire Emissions Joint Forum Meeting San Diego, CA 22 February a – Presentation (c)

Overview Lessons Learned FCCS vs. NFDRS – a case study of wildfires in the WRAP region

Status of Draft Report 150pp report (approximate). Proofreading/Formatting in Golden as we speak. Perhaps some changes/additions to “Lessons Learned” section based on discussions today. Posted and available for review on Friday, February 23, weeks for review/comment, make necessary revisions, then post as Final.

– Lessons Learned – Technical Methodology Big hitters: –“Blackened Acres” presumption 2/3 reported acres actually burned –FEPS-generated Fuel Consumption Consumption estimated as a function of moisture regime of fuel By definition, fuel consumption is less than available fuel loading –FEPS-generated Emission Factors

Inter RPO Results / WRAP Phase II Results

What should we do NEXT time? The labor is in the data gathering and QA/QC. –Is there any (better) way to gather, store, and disseminate activity data? Build and use a SCC coding system in coordination with EPA. Improve upon the “Blackened Acres Presumption” Use FEPS –The Consumption Curves make sense. –The burning phase- specific EFs make sense. –The smoldering method makes sense.

How should we use the Inter RPO 2002 WF EI? If you want a wildfire EI that is developed in a consistent way across the US, there is probably no better. It might be an equitable way to set up “boundary” conditions due to WF emissions in regional modeling analyses. As a reference point to build “better” EI’s in the future: –Good activity data is everything. –Better fire science = more confidence in results. –Standards for NIF formats and SCC. –…and we’ve still got the challenge of representing these events “correctly” in the models (plume characteristics)

Case Study: NFDRS vs. FCCS in the WRAP (2002) Different data sources are available to represent fuel loading (& consumption) across the US. –National Fire Danger Rating System –Fuel Characteristic Classification System This analysis attempts to quantify the effect on fuel loading estimates based on NFDRS vs. FCCS for the WRAP’s 2002 Fire Inventory

Fuel Consumption Assignment Rules Rule #Fuel loading data availabilityAction 1 Event was subject to “ large fire ” fuel refinement in Phase II effort and received fuel loading based on site-level information Use refined Phase II tons 2 Fuel loading in tons or tons/acre supplied in raw activity data Use Phase II raw tons directly 3NFDRS code supplied in raw activity data Look up tons from Phase II NFDRS fuel loading table 4 Event subject to “ perimeter-based ” fuel refinement in Phase II Assign fuel loading using perimeter over FCC map 5 No fuel loading supplied in raw or refined activity data Assign fuel loading using FCC map

Basis for Fuel Consumption Values – Post Application of Fuel Assignment Rules (Percent of Acres) Source Type (Total Acres in EI) FCC- based Tons Fuel Consumption Reported in Raw Data Tons Fuel Consumption Derived via QC-effort NFDRS Fuel Model Reported in Raw Data Total Wildfire (5.3M) 13% 44%18%25%100% WFU (200K) 19% 79%0%2%100% Prescribed Burning (650K) 42% 53%0%5%100% Basis for Fuel Consumption Values (as a % of Total Acres) – Post Application of Fuel Assignment Rules

Fuel Consumption Comparison By State

Some More Statistics WRAP Wide –Fuel Consumption increases by 68% (from 48MM tons to 81MM tons) with the application of FCCS –Fuel Consumption increased in 8 states Oregon: –NFDRS G (short needle, heavy 43.5 tons/acre) …45% of the acres of the Biscuit Fire… converts to FCC2 (Western Hemlock (& tons/acre)