COORDINATED GROUND-BASED AND SPACE OBSERVING SYSTEMS TOWARD NATURAL DISASTER FORECASTING AND/OR MONITORING OF MULTIHAZARD SEIMOGENIC RISKS P. Nenovski 1, D. Teodosiev 2, F. Hruška 3, J.Chum 3, J. Laštovička 3, U. Villante 4, M. Vellante 4, K. Schwingenschuh 5, M. Boudjada 5, I. Cholakov 1, V. Wesztergom 6, A.Sinha 7 1 Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria 2 Space Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria, 3 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic 4 Universiuty of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy, 5 Space Research Institute, Graz, Ausrtria 6 Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Sopron, Hungary 7 Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India

The proposed regional observing system could be related to: FP7 THEME 9: SPACE Activity: 9.1 Space-based applications at the service of European society Area 9.1.1: Pre-operational validation of GMES services and products Work should focus on building on the existing achievements of GMES, especially core service geo-information provision, and conduct research exploring innovative new geoinformation derived products and service lines, or upgrade existing service lines in the light of new geo-information products. FP7 THEME 6: ENVIRONMENT Activity 6.4 Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development Sub-Activity Earth and ocean observation systems and monitoring methods for the environment and sustainable development Area Integration of European activities within GEO ENV Contribution to observing systems for seismogenic hazards

The regional measuring system is focused on risks typical to seismic regions, mainly earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis, floods, etc. The overall objective is to specify, design, implement and validate a generic usage of information for production and exchange of data products capable for risk prevention and risk event management. Main seismic regions in Europe are Greece, Italy, Bulgaria, Turkey, FYR Macedonia, Portugal, etc.

The concept of space observing systems toward natural disaster forecasting and/or monitoring of seismogenic risks is based on multipoint measurements of crucial parameters on ground and in the high atmosphere and ionosphere. Physical parameters sensitive to earthquakes, landslides, etc. are: magnetic field components usually measured with sampling frequency of 1 sec; ionospheric parameters – every 15 min; ionosphere disturbances from ~10 sec to ~1 hours measured by Doppler shift sounding of the ionosphere at the frequency of 3.59 MHz; and infrasound measurements of pressure fluctuations with sampling frequency 25 Hz and operation range of periods ~0.1 sec to ~30 min. Actually, magnetic field measurements are conducted under the South Europe Geomagnetic Measurement Array (SEGMA) which includes Austria, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria and covers N LAT and LONG.

The usual trends in data are easily eliminated, the local ones remain. Unfortunately, the latter are of different quality and quantity. Various methods of data analysis are thus required. Applying statistical and other non-linear approaches, preliminary conclusions can be drawn about the relevance of local (unusual) changes of the parameters indicative for specified natural disaster. Magnetic field and ionospheric data have been used and testified for earthquake prediction and warning. We selected a set of such data and demonstrated the ability and reliability of common analyses of polarization, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and other ones to determine a reliable set of physical parameters for earthquake warning system.

A base for increased interoperability between regional seismic monitoring systems in Europe, India, etc can be built being capable for a natural risk management. This base will be capable to request and ingest raw input data, process the input data into products suitable for risk prevention/crisis management, distribute the products within the network - if required, exchange products with other data system operated by different methods and/or organizations.

Geophysical Institute and Space Research Institute at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, University of L’Aquila, Italy, and Indian Institute of Geomagnetism, Mumbai, India, have long term experience in geomagnetic, ionospheric and electromagnetic measurements on ground and in situ (satellite-based) and data analysis of lithospheric, atmospheric and ionospheric processes indicative for impending earthquakes. We have an experience and facilities to monitor magnetic field and ionospheric variations and work as a partner in future projects toward such an European activity.

Dr Petko Nenovski, DSc Geophysical Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Acad. G. Bonchev, str., 1113 Sofia, Bulgaria, Dr Dimitar Teodosiev, PhD Space Research Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, 6 Moskovska, str., 1000 Sofia, Bulgaria,

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