Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Market Overview/ Tactical Asset Allocation Basics Denver, CO September 29, 2010

Global Major Trend Index: Currently Positive…Suggests Global Markets Can Move Higher INTRINSIC VALUE - 21 Indicators.....current net reading of +89 Global Markets Considered To Be Undervalued. ECONOMIC-INTEREST RATES- INFLATION - 15 Indicators, net reading of -12 Deflation, Slower Growth, Rising Government Deficits. ATTITUDINAL - 22 Indicators, net reading of -64 Mixed Signals Of Optimism/Pessimism MOMENTUM-BREADTH-DIVERGENCE - 41 Indicators, net reading of +186 Technical work is decisively positive. TOTAL = 99 indicators, calculated weekly.....current net reading of Ratio of positive to negative points = 1.30 (0.95 to 1.05 is Neutral)

Global Equity Valuations (Ex-US): Room For Multiple Expansion

Emerging Market Equity Valuations: Room For Multiple Expansion

Global Equity Valuations: Comparatively Cheap To U.S.

U.S. Equity Valuations: Not As Much Room For Multiple Expansion

Global Equity Valuations

The Long Term Performance Impact Of Valuations:

Money Flows: Contrarian Indicator

A Lead On The Global Economy

Global Stock Bond Performance

Dividend Payers Outperform After CLI Peaks

Global Asset Allocation Structure Global MTI Went Positive Mid-September 68% GLOBAL EQUITIES: Increased (Net Exposure 60%) 8% EQUITY HEDGE: No Planned Change 15% INCOME: No Planned Change (Net Exposure 13%)  4% Global Government Bonds: Now made up of Brazilian and Australian government bonds, as well as Emerging Country Fixed Income ETFs.  4% Corporate Bond Funds: The two funds are now up 5.8% YTD.  4% High Yield Bonds: Yield spread is now considered neutral.  2% Treasury Inflation Protection Bonds (TIPS): Inflation is expected to pick up, and this holding should help in that environment.  1% Convertible Bonds: Focus is only on Foreign Convertible securities. 2% FIXED INCOME HEDGE: No Planned Change The Fixed Income Hedge was established in September 2009 and is made up of a short holding in U.S. T-bonds. 4% REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS: No Planned Change Position made up of mortgage REITs, along with a global real estate fund. 4% PHYSICAL METALS: Increased An additional 1% of assets was committed here in early September due to our concern about inflation implications. Gold is now 3.1% of assets and Silver is 0.9%. 27% CASH EQUIVALENTS: Increased

Global Equity Portfolio Structure

S&P 500 Technical Similarities With The Past

Mid Term Exams

Asset Allocation Principles

Benenefits of Disciplined Tactical Asset Allocation

Tactical Asset Allocation Basics