“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services November 15, 2005 Brig. Gen. D.L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services November 15, 2005 NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Overview The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water –2005 (YTD) in Review The Future: Action for America –Strategic Initiatives The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water –2005 (YTD) in Review The Future: Action for America –Strategic Initiatives Land OceansSpace Environment Atmosphere Climate NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy 76 billion observations 1.5 million forecasts 50,000 warnings Provide climate, water, weather forecasts and warnings to protect life and property and enhance the economy 76 billion observations 1.5 million forecasts 50,000 warnings A Typical Year Brings: –6 Hurricanes –1,000 Tornadoes –5,000 Floods –10,000 Violent Thunderstorms –Drought Conditions –500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Data Assimilation and Modeling Dissemination Observations Products & Services Action Information Technology Research to Operations Research The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" 2005 in Review (YTD) The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Atlantic Tropical Cyclones since 1886 The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Forecast for Advisory 23 Issued BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA…EVEN STRONGER…HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…. HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.. 18 TO 22 FEET COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… AS HIGH AS 28 FEET LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 000 WWUS74 KLIX NPWLIX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWNAND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! Hurricane Katrina The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Photos by AP Hurricane Katrina Costly Human and Societal Effects The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Record YTD The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Indiana & Kentucky Tornadoes (Nov. 6) AP Photos The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Cheshire County Floods Oct. 17 The Nation’s Risks: Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water 2005 in Review (YTD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Community Preparedness & Safety The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady –Preparedness in Place –Threat Detected –Warning Issued –Warning Understood –Action Taken –LIVES SAVED Van Wert, Ohio is StormReady –Preparedness in Place –Threat Detected –Warning Issued –Warning Understood –Action Taken –LIVES SAVED Photo credit: Todd Campbell The Future Action for America Successful Community Preparedness

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Know and Anticipate Customer Needs Research to Operations Balanced Skill Mix Infuse Proven Science and Technology Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Better Radar Know and Anticipate Customer Needs Research to Operations Balanced Skill Mix Infuse Proven Science and Technology Grow National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) Better Radar Air Quality Forecasts Current Radar Upgraded Radar Gridded Forecast Database TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE IFPS The Future Action for America Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools Integrating and Improving Skills & Tools

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Atmosphere Snow Pack Fresh Water Terrestrial Weather Estuaries Ocean Air Quality Soil Moisture Space Weather Total Environmental Awareness The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" More weather data Higher resolution forecasts Visual displays of probability User-defined products create business opportunities Different Products for Different Customers The public, emergency managers and city planners use WWW. graphic products for detailed forecasts Commercial weather companies & emergency managers use grids to generate tailored products TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70%. Radio stations & public read text forecasts The Future Action for America Digital Services (NDFD)

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area Polygon Eliminates False Alarm Area Polygon Warnings & Demographic Data The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Results Improved Hurricane Track, Intensity and Precipitation Forecasts Improved Tornado and Flash Flood Forecasts Improved Aviation, Fire, Marine, and Space Weather Forecasts Improved Flood, River, and Ocean Predictions Improved Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Energy, Agriculture, Etc. Advances Observations Observations Data Assimilation Data Assimilation Models Models Forecasting Techniques Forecasting Techniques Information Technology Information Technology Dissemination Methods Dissemination Methods The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Develop an organization-wide concept of operations Consolidate data-level IT management Provide Aviation Products and Services Develop an organization-wide concept of operations Consolidate data-level IT management Provide Aviation Products and Services Three Strategic Initiatives The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Strategic Initiatives Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations Strategic Initiatives Develop an Organization-Wide Concept of Operations The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" NOAA NWS END USERS PARTNERS Integrative Communication Model The Future Action for America

“Saving Lives and Livelihoods!" Academic/ Research Academic/ Research Broadcasters Private Sector NOAA NWS NOAA NWS Protect Life and Property & Enhance U.S.A Economy Protect Life and Property & Enhance U.S.A Economy NWS & IAEM Partnership in the Digital Era Emergency Managers Emergency Managers