Board of Trustees Quarterly Data Report Volume 1, Number 2 Graduation and Retention Update January 7, 2014

Retention Rates Cohort Entering Year 1st Year Retention 2nd Year Retention 3rd Year Retention 4th Year Retention 5th Year Retention SummerFallSummerFallSummerFallSummerFallSummerFall % 79.2%83.9% %69.6% 84.0%83.5%68.5%70.4% %70.5%62.0% 81.9%83.5%68.5%72.0%60.2%63.4% %71.5%65.2%60.2% 83.5%84.5%71.2%71.9%63.4%67.1%58.5%61.9% %72.2%66.4%63.4%60.6% 85.0%84.8%72.3%72.1%66.5%66.3%63.9%63.2%60.6%60.5%

Retention Rates FTICs Entering Fall 2012 On- Campus Housing Off- Campus Housing Percent of Students in On- and Off-Campus Housing89.8%10.2% Average Grade Point Average Average Number of Hours Attempted Average Hours Successfully Completed Percent of Students Retained in Fall %80.8%

Graduation Rates Six Year UNF FTIC Graduation Rates FTIC Entry Year Six Years Later Graduated from UNF45%49%46%49%47% Rank among SUS institutions6 th 5 th 6 th (tied)6 th 6 th (tied) Graduated from an SUS Institution 54%57%54%56%55% Rank among SUS institutions5 th 6 th Graduated from a U.S. Institution* 61%65%62%65%64% *Do not have data for other state institutions

Relation between Retention and Graduation Predictor Variable Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361) Bachelor's degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate Bachelor’s degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 Bachelor’s degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate

Positive Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates Predictor Variable Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361) Bachelor's degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate Bachelor’s degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 SAT I Math 25th % score SAT I Verbal 25th % score ACT Composite 25th % score SAT I Math 75th % score SAT I Verbal 75th % score ACT Composite 75th % score

Positive Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates Predictor Variable Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361) Bachelor's degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate Bachelor’s degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 Total dormitory capacity Tuition and fees, % Students Living on Campus % enrollment that is White, non-Hispanic FTIC as a % all undergrads In-state required fees for full-time undergrads

Negative Predictors of Institutional Graduation Rates Predictor Variable Public Masters (n =167) Public and Nonprofit Masters (n =361) Bachelor's degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate Bachelor’s degree within 6 years Full-time retention rate rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 rr2r2 % full-time FTICs receiving Pell grants % undergrad students receiving Pell % receiving federal grant aid % enrollment that is Black, non-Hispanic Transfer-out rate – bachelor’s cohort New transfer students as % of all new students

Predictive Modeling for 2005 Cohorts (227 Public and Non-Profit Privates) Retention, 2006Graduation, 2011 FactorEffectSignificance EffectSignificance UNF 1.929None None Peers / Aspirants 2.205None 4.471None Undergraduate Pct ***-0.101** FTE vs. Total Enrolled 0.126**0.188** Matriculation Rate ***-0.171***** SAT Math 25th percentile 0.049***0.085***** SAT Verbal 75th percentile 0.024**0.043*** ACT 25th percentile 0.369None1.109**** Pct. Female 0.091**0.164*** Pct. Hispanic 0.075**0.137*** Total Univ. Revenues 0.026****0.021** Tuition+Fees Pct. of Revs None0.075** Avg. Pell Grant ****-0.007**** Pct. With Pell Grant None-0.116** Pct. Living on Campus 0.067*0.135*** Transfers as Pct. of New ****-0.162***** Student / Faculty Ratio 0.390***0.260None Town Location *-0.058None Admission Rate * None Variation Explained 68% 83%

After accounting for student & institutional factors, our retention and graduation rates are essentially the same as other comprehensive masters institutions. Stated otherwise, we are positioned right where one would expect us to be. Once we know the factors in the preceding table, factors found to be insignificant include: Predictive Modeling for 2005 Cohorts (227 Public and Non-Profit Privates) –Whether school is public or private –City, rural, or suburban locations –Total enrollment –Total undergrads –Total applicants –Total FTE –FTIC percentage –Other SAT or ACT thresholds –Total tuition & fee revenue –Affordability index –Percentage of black students –Percentage of white students –Percentage with any aid –Percentage of FTICs with Pell –Average Pell for FTICs –Total dorm rooms –Remoteness of location

Upon ArrivalAfter Fall termAfter Spring term Factor EffectSignif. EffectSignif.EffectSignif. Lived on campus in Fall0.244*****0.238*****0.169** Housing made mandatory0.101None-0.011None-0.124None SAT0.000None0.000None0.000None High School GPA0.530*****0.062None-0.014None AP credits0.014****0.008*0.003None Fall Hours Attempted0.014None-0.006None Fall Hours Earned0.017None-0.002None Fall GPA0.495*****0.254***** Spring Hours Attempted0.002None Spring Hours Earned0.034*** Spring GPA0.273***** Asian0.266None0.215None0.365* Asian Pacific Islander0.346**0.407***0.305* Black0.202*0.231**0.203None Hispanic-0.044None0.018None-0.024None Multi-racial-0.094None-0.016None-0.074None Non-resident alien0.376*0.029None-0.156None Ethnicity not reported3.824None3.825None 4.422None Female0.005None-0.040None None Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention (UNF Students Only, Cohorts)

Upon ArrivalAfter Fall termAfter Spring term FactorEffectSignif.EffectSignif.EffectSignif. Declared major in BCH-0.103None-0.100None-0.121None Declared major in CCB0.050None0.046None0.069None Declared major in COEHS-0.028None0.002None-0.005None Declared major in CCEC0.035None0.129None0.169* Did not declare major0.070None0.059None0.099None From Out-of-State-0.441*****-0.594*****-0.631***** From Region **-0.268**-0.231* From Region ****-0.225****-0.206*** From Region *****-0.381*****-0.319**** From Region ***-0.270***-0.195** From Region None-0.239None-0.238None From Region None-0.229None-0.288None Year None0.034None-0.082None Year None0.068None-0.064None Year None0.002None-0.102None Year None None None Variation Explained 6.5% 21.4% 22.2% Sample Size Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention (UNF Students Only, Cohorts)

A student’s grades are the key driver of retention and graduation. Living on campus is highly related to retention at all three points in time. Moreover, the size of the effect of on-campus housing on retention was the same whether on- campus was mandatory or optional. Upon a student’s arrival at UNF, high school GPA and AP credits are good predictors of retention, whereas SAT scores are not. Once the FTIC gets through his/her first fall, even the high school GPA is no longer a good predictor. After the first spring, AP credits also drop out as good predictors. Fall term GPA is a strong predictor once student gets through his/her first Fall term. Spring term GPA and spring hours earned are strong predictors once student gets through his/her first Spring term. Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention (UNF Students Only, Cohorts)

There is evidence we retain Black, Asian-Pacific Islander, and Asian students more readily than White students. There is no gender effect. There is no effect of the college being targeted as they come in our door (all comparisons are versus COAS), but CCEC majors show higher retention once they’re through the spring term. Out-of-state students, and students from all regions except regions 6 and 7, are retained at a lower rate than region 2 (our home region). Once through the spring term, 2012 FTICs do show higher retention than FTICs from all earlier years, but there’s not conclusive evidence that 2012 was indeed better (i.e., the differences observed could be random). Predictive Modeling of Second-Year Retention (UNF Students Only, Cohorts)