Voting behaviour Joan Garrod FOTOLIA

Voting behaviour Falling turnout Politicians from all parties are increasingly concerned by the falling turnout rate at UK elections, particularly general elections. The turnout rate measures the proportion of those who are eligible to vote who actually do so. There are two related problems:  A growing number of people, especially first-time voters and those from minority ethnic groups, are not registered to vote, thus making themselves ineligible.  Even among those registered to vote, a growing number fail to actually cast their vote. Turnout at local elections, by-elections and European parliamentary elections is much lower than at general elections.

Voting behaviour Turnout at general elections The following table gives the UK percentage turnout at general elections in selected years. YearTurnoutYearTurnout

Voting behaviour Why people don’t vote (1)  In December 2013, ICM Research carried out a survey for the Guardian newspaper.  They interviewed an online sample of 2,023 adults aged 18+ between 20 December and 22 December.  The following slide shows some of the reasons non-voters gave for not voting.

Voting behaviour Why people don’t vote (2)

Voting behaviour From the same research, here are some people’s feelings towards politicians. Why people don’t vote (3)

Voting behaviour Reasons for not voting Political parties, both in and out of government, appear to have a problem inspiring trust among the electorate, and also in presenting themselves as sufficiently different from one another. The Guardian research showed that:  64% of respondents identified the failure of governments to honour their pledges as something that would put them off voting  26% regarded the parties as ‘so similar that [voting] makes little difference’

Voting behaviour Role models? Recently, two well-known figures revealed that they had never voted — they were the former England footballer Michael Owen and the comedian/broadcaster Russell Brand. It has been suggested that high-profile figures such as these revealing their lack of participation in voting would put off some people, especially younger voters, from taking part in elections. Discussion point: To what extent do you think that younger voters might be influenced by these views?

Voting behaviour It’s not just turnout that matters While there is understandable concern at falling turnout rates, there seems to be an even greater problem for UK democracy — the growing inequality in turnout.  Participation in elections is falling fastest among the young and the least affluent.  This means that the well-off and older voters have a disproportionate influence over government policies.  Such unequal turnout reduces the incentives for governments to respond to the interests of non-voters. This leads to the growing conviction among non- voters that politics has little to offer them and does not represent their interests, making them even less likely to vote.

Voting behaviour The growing gap  In 1987, there was a four-point gap in the turnout rate between the highest income groups and the poorest of the electorate.  In 2010, the gap had increased to 23 points. If we take ‘young voters’ as those aged between 18–24, and ‘older voters’ as those aged 66 and over:  in 1970, the gap in the turnout rate between young and older voters was 18 points  in 2010, the gap had increased to 32 points This is significant because research shows that those who vote when they are young are more likely to continue to vote as they get older. It seems now that younger people are less likely than those from previous generations to get into the habit of voting.

Voting behaviour Consequences (1) The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) published a report, ‘Divided democracy’, in November Part of the report was an analysis of the impact of the 2010 spending review on voters and non-voters.  This showed that those groups who voted in the 2010 general election faced cuts worth 12% of their annual household income.  However, groups of non-voters faced cuts worth 20% of their annual household income. The cuts had a disproportionate effect on the young and the poor — precisely those groups who are least likely to vote.

Voting behaviour Consequences (2) The IPPR analysis also showed that:  Those with annual household incomes of less than £10,000 stand to lose the equivalent of 41% of their average income through cuts.  Those with annual incomes of over £60,000 will lose on average £2,104, representing just 3% of this group’s average income.  The average loss in services and benefits amounts to £1,850 per voter, compared to £2,135 per non-voter.

Voting behaviour A solution? Clearly, non-voters are at a disadvantage in terms of government policies. The IPPR argue that the best way to boost political participation among hard-to- reach groups is by compulsory voting. This is currently practised in about a quarter of the world’s democracies, including Belgium and Australia. In Belgium, the turnout has averaged 93% in the elections since 1946, while over the same period the turnout in Australia has averaged 95%. Voting itself is not required by law — what is compulsory is attendance at the polls. Discussion point: What do you see as the advantages and disadvantages of such systems?

Voting behaviour A compromise? (1) The IPPR report proposes a compromise — namely that first-time voters in the UK should be obliged to go to the polls, on the first occasion that they are eligible to vote. They would only be compelled to attend — ballot papers would have a box entitled ‘None of the above’ in order for voters to register that they did not wish to cast a vote for any of the candidates listed. The IPPR suggests that to ensure a high participation rate, there should be a small fine for non-attendance.

Voting behaviour A compromise? (2) The IPPR’s arguments for this proposal are:  having been to the polls once, young voters would be more likely to continue going in the future  politicians would be forced to pay attention to young voters and their interests Discussion point: What are your views on this proposal, given the knowledge of the disadvantages of non-voting?