Hurricane Research in NOAA Frank Marks NOAA HFIP Project Lead 62 nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

62 nd IHC2HFIP Significantly improve forecast guidance with modeling systems capturing range of natural variability in tropical cyclone track, intensity and structure with sufficient fidelity to predict rapid intensity changes with minimal uncertainty. Vision ensembles V TMAX

62 nd IHC3HFIP What physical processes limit predictability of track, intensity and structure? Large scale wind and moisture structure and variability Convection in vorticity-rich environment (VHT) Air-sea exchange of momentum and enthalpy Vortex dynamics and evolution (resiliency, mixing, VRW) Upper ocean structure and mesoscale variability Aerosols and microphysics What is best way to represent natural variability of processes in model system? Ensembles (multi-model, single model/multiple physics, /initial state, /resolutions, etc.) Representation of physical processes Resolution, domain size, and nesting What is best mix of data for model initialization? Overarching Research

62 nd IHC4HFIP HFIP Unified NOAA approach to guide and accelerate improvements in forecasts, with emphasis on rapid intensity change, and reduction in uncertainty. Improve forecasts and increase confidence to enhance mitigation and preparedness decisions. Responds to input from stakeholders, NSB, OFCM, and HIRWG reports. Embraces strong collaboration with non-NOAA partners with objective to transition research into operations.

62 nd IHC5HFIP Intensity and structure change, with emphasis on RI: processes that modulate internal storm dynamics and storm interactions with atmosphere and ocean; Track: interactions between tropical cyclone and its environment through optimal use of observations; Forecast Uncertainty: global and regional model ensembles to bound uncertainty and test predictability HFIP Research Thrusts V  MAX

62 nd IHC6HFIP Improve HFS/GFS to reduce error in track and intensity forecasts Optimize new and existing observing systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts Expand forecast tools and applications to aid forecasters HFIP Components Understanding FF

62 nd IHC7HFIP Overlap with Table 5.1 with focus on transition to operations: Guide and accelerate HFS improvements (HFS) Develop observing system strategy analysis capability (OSE) Fully fund transition of research to operations (R2O) Increase high performance computing (res & ops) Coordinate with research community on basic research NOAA cannot meet goals alone! Broaden base of expertise in tropical cyclone research community Work closely with federal, academic, and private sector communities HFIP Objectives

62 nd IHC8HFIP Table 5-1. Research Priorities in Atmospheric and Ocean Science OFCM TC Research Plan HFS OSE √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ HFIP R2O B,

62 nd IHC9HFIP OFCM TC Research Plan √ HFIP R2O

Questions?

Background Material

62 nd IHC12HFIP HFIP Leadership (HEOB) The membership of the HFIP Executive Oversight Board (HEOB) includes: NWS AA, Dr. John L. Hayes (Co-Chair) OAR AA, Dr. Richard Spinrad (Co-Chair) NESDIS AA, Ms. Mary Kicza NOS AA, Mr. John H. Dunnigan NMFS Senior Designee, Ms. Bonnie Ponwith PPI AA, Dr. Paul Doremus (Acting) NMAO, Director or Designee (TBD) Director, NHC/NWS, Dr. Edward Rappaport (Acting) Director, AOML/OAR, Dr. Robert Atlas Director, NCEP/NWS, Dr. Louis Uccellini Director, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, Mr. Sam Williamson

62 nd IHC13HFIP HFIP Team Dr. Frank Marks and Dr. Ahsha Tribble were selected as the Project Lead and Deputy Project Lead, respectively. They formed a project team including: Program Manager, Environmental Modeling Program: Mr. Fred Toepfer Program Designee, Local Forecasts and Warnings: Mr. Scott Kiser Program Manager, Science and Technology Infusion or designee: Dr. Chris Fairall NESDIS Representative: Dr. Mark DeMaria Hurricane Program Director, Aircraft Operations Center: Dr. Jim McFadden Program Manager, NMAO Aircraft Services: RADM Phil Kenul HWRF Program Manager and EMC Hurricane Lead: Dr. Naomi Surgi OFCM/JAG/TCR representative: Mr. Mark Welshinger ELDP Candidate (NWS): Mr. Mark McInerney Executive Secretariat: NWS/Dr. Daniel Meléndez OAR/Mr. Roger Pierce

Modeling and Data Assimilation Observing Strategies and Observations T2O Critical mass Scope of HFIP NSB Ecosystem Impacts Preparedness and Response Uncertainty Rainfall and Inland Flooding Climate Interactions Hurricane Modification Impacts on Engineered Structures Socio-Economic Impacts HIRWG OFCM Forecasting Operational Needs Storm Surge HFIP 62nd IHC 14 Basic Process Research

62 nd IHC15HFIP Significance of Rapid Intensity Change Rapid intensity (RI) change (≥30 kt in 24 hours) has a significant impact on preparedness and evacuation actions for emergency managers Greatest forecast challenge for hurricane forecasters Not handled well by current operational models High priority in HIRWG report and the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 83% of major hurricanes have at least 1 RI event – Major hurricanes are responsible for 80% of all hurricane damage Linked to changes in storm structure and storm surge Research and operational efforts necessary to improve forecasts of rapid intensity change will also improve intensity and track forecasts.

62 nd IHC16HFIP HFIP Performance Metrics I.Reduce average track error at Days 1 – 5 II.Reduce average intensity error at Days 1 – 5 III.Increase probability of detection (POD) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 IV.Decrease false alarm ratio (FAR) for rapid intensity change for Days 1 – 5 V.Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the forecast guidance

62 nd IHC17HFIP Short Term Actions: Priorities and Payoffs High Resolution Model and Other Model Enhancements Technical staff with modeling and software engineering expertise R&D for HFS/GFS to demonstrate, using DOE HPC system, high resolution and ensemble prediction capability and address data assimilation challenges HFS/HWRF R&D and upgrades sustained Storm Surge Testbed Enhance HPC Capability NOAA R&D computing to support HFS/GFS development including software engineering Research to Operations (R20) Enhancements Increase funding for the JHT (includes staffing) Increase support for the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JSCDA) Targeted field programs and operational flights Broaden expertise and expand interaction with external community Establish a visiting scientist/Post Doc program Advisory committees, community workshops Permanent HFIP Staff and infrastructure PAYOFFS : Staffing and computing infrastructure established to evaluate potential model improvements Targeted high resolution and ensemble model research and development funded Demonstration completed on the impact of forecast performance using the high resolution model system on DOE system– decision point for NOAA HPC investment Upgrades to HFS/HWRF implemented operationally, and HFS/HWRF on a path to 4km resolution Storm surge testbed established Staff and infrastructure established for enhanced transition of research to operations Broaden community expertise through visiting scientists Involvement with external community for modeling R&D and development of forecast tools through JHT, DTC, and JCSDA