The Measure of American Democracy Charles Stewart III June 1, 2012

Who won?

How would we know?

Florida 2000 reminds us of what V.O. Key once wrote: Over most of the United States, the conduct of elections is the most neglected and primitive branch of our public administration.... V.O. Key, Southern Politics in State and Nation (1949

Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000?

What do the data say?

What problems were unearthed in 2000?

What problems were unearthed in 2000?: Florida 1.Recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis) 2.Old voting machines (lost votes) 3.Poor ballot design (confused voters) 4.Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away)

What problems were unearthed in 2000? Nationwide 1.Nationwide recount law and practice were a mess (leading to a near constitutional crisis) 2.Old voting machines (lost votes) 3.Poor ballot design (confused voters) 4.Poor registration systems (led to voters being turned away) 5.People registering by mail (possibility of fraud) 6.Physically disabled hindered from voting independently 7.No federal champion for improving elections 8.Felon disenfranchisement

What problems were unearthed in 2000?: The magnitude Data sources: state election divisions; Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration Supplement

The response: The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) ProblemSolution(s) Old voting machines$billions for new machines Lever machines & punch cards banned Poor ballot designEAC mandate for research Poor registration systemsMandates for new computerized systems Provisional ballots as “fail safe” People registering by mailID requirement for most first-time voters No federal championEAC

Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? Yes, definitely –Voting machines Yes, somewhat –Voter registration systems No –Designing better ways to resolve election disputes –Improving polling place practices –Spurring research into best practices –Improving access for the disabled

Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? Q: How do we know?

Have elections gotten better in the U.S. since 2000? Q: How do we know? A: Data analysis

Improvements in voting machines

Election data from elections divisions

Improvements in voting machines Election data from elections divisions Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services

Improvements in voting machines Election data from elections divisions Voting machine data from the EAC and Election Data Services Net result: Fewer lost votes due to voting machines –1 million fewer in 2004 –1.3 million fewer in 2008

Improvements in registration lists Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study

Improvements in registration lists Data from the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Study Fewer people failing to vote due to registration problems –0.92% of registered voters in 2000 –0.74% in 2004 –0.57% in 2008

We’re doing better. Do we feel better?

YearEgotropicSociotropic 2000CBS/NYT; LATPew; NAES 2002None 2004CBS/NYT; Pew (2); ABC/WP (2); NAES (2) CBS/NYT; Pew; ABC 2006Pew (3); CNN; Fox; ABS/WPCNN; Gallup/USAT; Pew 2008Gallup/USAT; Pew (2); SPAEGallup/USAT; ANES; CBS/NYT; Pew; NAES 2010Pew Source: Roper Center (mostly)

We’re doing better. Do we feel better?