March 15, Meeting the Future Together The Garfield County Cumulative Impacts Study Introduction & Overview Energy Advisory Board March 15, 2005

March 15, What is the GARCO CIS and why are we doing it? It’s a two-year study effort to identify and quantify all the factors that will drive Garfield County’s growth over the next years. We’re conducting the CIS because: –Garfield County is one of the fastest growing counties in Colorado and has been called the US natural gas equivalent of the Persian Gulf –Just like any private company, the County and our municipalities need accurate data in order to continue to provide a solid level of services efficiently to our residents and industries alike –The results will be valuable to us as we do our jobs but also valuable to each of you and to all the businesses in the County as they plan for the future

March 15, What information will the CIS provide? A detailed description of the current economy of Garfield County and what drives it Current population and demographic analyses for Garfield County Projections of economic activity and growth in Garfield County over the next years Projections of job levels in Garfield County over the next years Projections of population growth in Garfield County over the next years An inventory and description of current local government services levels (for the County and cities) Projections of what will be required to maintain Garfield County’s currently positive levels of services to its taxpayers and citizens An analysis of the impacts of growth on county and municipal finances Development of a tool kit that provides a view of the influences on local land values and the tools that help land owners

March 15, How much will the CIS cost; who will pay for it; who will do the research? The CIS will cost in total about $500,000, with roughly $150,000 being spent this year and the rest in 2006 Costs will be paid through the increased tax base generated in part by energy and other development. The study will be conducted by 1-2 teams of economic, modeling and infrastructure research and analysis consultants The research team will be chosen using Garfield County’s normal procurement process, with the EAB serving an advisory role

March 15, Will the CIS focus on the energy industry? No. The CIS will focus on the three primary economic drivers of Garfield County’s economy: –General growth such as primary and second home development (resulting from a range of economic stimuli) –Growth related to energy development –Growth related to non-energy industrial and commercial growth

March 15, How and when will the CIS be conducted? The CIS will be conducted over the next 20 months in 3 parts: –Phase One (April to October 2005): The land values enhancement study This study will examine how local industries affect the values of various types of land and will develop a tool kit to help minimize negative impacts –Phase Two (April to December 2005): Choosing and calibrating an economic/employment/ population model During the remainder of 2005, the CIS will identify a preferred projection model (e.g., employment based, economic based) and will calibrate it to the economy of Garfield County and the region. The model also will produce a set of multipliers that will help Garfield County understand how different economic sectors relate to each other

March 15, Phase Three Phase Three (October 2005 – December 2006): Running the model and completing the facilities and services impact analysis –Phase Three will be composed of two separate activities. The first will be running the Garfield County model and producing a set of employment and population projections. That will occur in –The second activity will be the conduct of a services and infrastructure analysis that will apply the employment and population projections to local county and city service levels to create estimates of service and infrastructure demands on local government. This effort will begin in late 2005 with a survey of service levels. The primary analysis work, however, will be conducted in –Garfield County will require consultants to prepare an Excel spreadsheet form of the model to allow the county to sensitivities without additional consultant expense.

March 15, What will be the role of the EAB? The Garfield County Energy Advisory Board will play a significant role by: –Reviewing the overall design of and plan for the CIS –Reviewing the Scope of Work for each CIS study –Reviewing the list of consultants to whom the RFPs will be sent –Reviewing the proposals that come back from the bidders –Reviewing model outputs –Receiving regular updates and tracking progress –Reviewing the final products of the CIS –Acting as a liaison with the communities represented –Communicating CIS progress to the Garfield County Board of County Commissioners

March 15, How will the EAB fulfill its role? Through 4 volunteer committees First meetings over the next days Committees may include non-EAB members to ensure the broadest possible input from Garfield County residents The committees are: –Land Committee (multi-stakeholder membership) – Functions: Advise on the land values enhancement study Assist in creating a tool box to remove institutional barriers (e.g., problems with mortgage financing) and provide valuable planning information to minimize impacts from any land use that might temporarily reduce property values Review study design and outputs

March 15, Second & Third Committees CIS Technical Committee (multi-stakeholder membership) – Functions (relative to the economic/employment/population model): –Review and input into all CIS design issues prior to presentation to the full EAB –Review all outputs and progress reports prior to presentation to the full EAB –Assist in the preparation of presentations to the EAB and lead all discussions Services and Infrastructure Committee (multi-stakeholder membership)– Functions (relative to the services and infrastructure study): –Review the services and entities to be surveyed –Review the final survey of service/infrastructure levels –Review model outputs –Lead discussions/presentations at the EAB and with local governments and NGOs about service needs

March 15, Industry Committee Industry Data Committee (membership limited to industry representatives) Functions: –Develop procedures (including methods for handling CBI) for securing the industry input (from each industry sector) required to provide the modelers good projection data –Hire an independent technical consultant to gather the data, make it consistent, aggregate it and feed it back in a usable form to the modeling consultants –Work with all companies to ensure at least 80% participation in data provision