Trend of Rice Consumption in Japan Kobe University Kako, Toshiyuki

Three Phases of Rice Economy ① Rice shortage phase （ 1945 ～ 67 ） ② Rice surplus phase （ 1968 ～ ） ③ Rice trade liberalization phase （ 1995 ～ ）

Year Proportion of rice planted area in total planted area Proportion of rice output in total agricultural output Proportion of rice revenue in total agricultural revenue of farm household Proportion of calorie supply from rice in total daily per capita calorie supply Proportion of expenditures on rice in household food expenditures Proportion of expenditures on rice in household consumption expenditures Position of Rice in Japanese Agriculture

Factors influencing rice consumption level Consumer rice prices Consumption expenditure Change in dietary habits: westernization Aging of population Decline of family size Increasing participation rate of women in labor market Declining share of farm households

Ｓｈａｒｅ ｏｆ Ｃａｌｏｒｉｅ Ｓ ｕｐｐｌｙ ％

Estimation result of per capita rice demand function (1980 － 2001 年） Ln C = Lny Lnn R 2 =0.964 (10.385)(-3.950) (3.854) c : per capita rice consumption y ： Per capita private final consumption expenditure n : Number of person per household

Projection of Rice Demand Assumptions on the rate of change of exogenous variables (Data: ) 1. Per capita private final consumption expenditure: 0.4% 2. Number of person per household: － 0.8% Lny = t R2=0.60 ( )(2.927) Lnn = t R2=0.907 ( )(-7.048)

Projection results of table rice demand in 2010 and desirable figures described in the Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Desirable figures described in Basic Plan of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Areas Projection result Total Domestic supply (brown rice) 9.06 million t8.46 million t Annual per capita rice supply (milled rice) 66.0 kg60.2 kg