In a discussion of experienced flight instructors, some noted that praise for an excellent a smooth landing is useless because it is typically followed.

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Presentation transcript:

In a discussion of experienced flight instructors, some noted that praise for an excellent a smooth landing is useless because it is typically followed by a poorer landing on the next try, but harsh criticism for a poor landing is useful because it is typically followed by an improvement on the next try. How can we explain this phenomenon? Misconceptions of regression The study of Kahneman & Tversky (1973):Kahneman & Tversky (1973): © POSbase 2003Contributor

Misconceptions of regression Quality of Landing Number of landings average Performance poor excellent Conclusion: There are statistical reasons why the landing will be better after a poor landing and worse after an excellent landing. This phenomenon is known as „regression toward the mean“ © POSbase 2003

Misconceptions of regression  Obedience after punishment and disobedience after praise  Effects of measures against a crisis: Measures against crime, illness, financial loss, lack of rain (rainmaker), or pain (healers): The situation may get better without any intervention. For example, people recover from 50% of all illnesses without any intervention.  Most extra-ordinary fathers have mediocre sons.  Brilliant women have dull husbands.  If someone is especially good in a test, but not in school or at work: Is supposed to have unused potential.  Sports Illustrated: Stars were reluctant to get on the front page because there were rumors that after being on it, stars suffer from a bad form. Obviously, one comes to the front page of Sport Illustrated after an extraordinary performance so that a decrease in performance is likely anyway. © POSbase 2003

The representativeness heuristic leads to a other judgment errors:  Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973)  Insensitivity to sample size (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972)Kahneman & Tversky, 1972  Misconceptions of chance (Kahneman & Tversky, 1972)Kahneman & Tversky, 1972  The conjunction fallacy (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983)Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 Misconceptions of regression © POSbase 2003