A Global Reach with a Local Perspective Current Economic Conditions Affecting Your Business
Favorable US economic trends Substantial cash, increasing M&A activity US banks’ recovery & lending policies Favorable valuations 2014 M&A Outlook
Labor costs, labor unions, manufacturing costs down US preeminence returns & recovering US Dollar Positive inflows into equity after 5 years No bubble yet, stock market peak likely off, top near Technology gains continue US banks continue recovery and improve lending Favorable 2014 US Trends
For Financial Investors Slow 2013, prior uncertainties now clearer, substantial cash For Strategic Acquirers Increasing international interest in southeastern US Substantial cash, balance sheets, growth planning For US Economy & Lending Favorable trends and policies For Liquidity & Diversification Valuations, structure, alternatives and opportunities M&A Outlook
Investors predict 4 industries having most potential for growth in 2014: Health care, financial services Technology Energy Manufacturing Changing regulations in healthcare and financial services, increased O&G production, evolving world of technology, and US manufacturing opportunities will increase investment activity Potential Sectors
M&A Drivers: New technology Geographic growth Product/service growth Customer growth Challenges: Regulatory uncertainty Valuation disparities Volatile energy prices Inability to forecast future performance Energy / O&G Sector
All-In Valuations Note: 2013 H1 volume is annualized Source: GF Data
All-In Valuations Source: GF Data
TEV YTD TotalN = Total N = Size Premium Please note that N for encompasses six years of activity Data is through 3Q. Source: GF Data
TEV/EBITDA – By Industry Industry YTD TotalN = Manufacturing Business services Health care services Retail Distribution Publishing/Media Technology NA6.338 Other N = Please note that N for encompasses six years of activity Data is through 3Q Source: GF Data
Transaction Structure Trends Source: GF Data
Price does not equal value Three valuation approaches – Asset approach Market approach Income approach Typical buyers – Strategic buyers Financial buyers So how does all this effect the value of my business?
Example Company
Valuation based on EBITDA multiple
Assuming average 2013 transaction structure
From the buyer’s perspective
Investors wary in 2013 due to uncertainty surrounding politics, monetary policy, global issues, and economic environment Private equity ended 2013 with a record high $1 trillion of dry powder… 2013 reported best year for PE fundraising since financial crisis Strategic buyers continue to hold large amounts of cash – another $1 trillion Investors Looking to Put Capital to Work
Seller activity affected by: Diversification objectives Liquidity goals Continuing profitability trends Succession issues, exit planning Buyer Activity fueled by: Large cash reserves, low interest rates Improved consumer confidence Opportunities in emerging markets Middle market most active sector Increasing Activity in 2014
2013 should have been a banner year for PE deals, but deal volume decreased. Sellers accessed loose debt markets and did more than $60bn in dividend recapitalizations Capital “under pressure,” or nearing the end of a fund’s investment period, actually declined Asian markets cooled considerably Strategics spent the post-recession years cleaning up their balance sheets had the cash to spend on M&A IPOs soared on the back of historically strong equity markets Igniting Dry Powder
PE fund-raising surged in 2013 $461bn in new capital worldwide 21% increase over 2012 Debt markets open and eager to finance new deals The excess of unassigned capital will keep asset valuations high in all industries Strategic partnerships between corporations and PEs (and hedge funds) will increase the number of “hybrid” deals, and increase demand Igniting Dry Powder
Generating organic growth continues to be a challenge in the current economic environment Slow economic growth Weak aggregate demand Near-zero inflation M&A remains the best way for corporations to act on growth opportunities PE funds believe they are best positioned to assist with growth mandates Expect to see PE-sponsorships for corporate M&A For strategic buyers
Unallocated capital in PE
Private Equity IRRs
Value of a business with $1mm in free cash
Confluence of factors: IRRs have a inverse relationship with your company’s valuation. PE IRRs remain lower, the base of capital has expanded, debt markets are hungry PE firms still believe they can run your business better than you 2014 could be the right time to partner with PE to create liquidity and diversify. Why This is Good News
M&A By Sector
M&A by Sector
TEV/Total Revenue Healthcare Industry Metrics: Southeast US
EBIT and EBITDA Multiples Healthcare Industry Metrics: Southeast US
TEV/EBITDA Manufacturing: U.S. Middle Market
Number of Transactions Manufacturing: U.S. Middle Market
PEs and strategic buyers have cash on hand, ready to deploy After an historic year for equities, shareholders will demand additional share price appreciation, and M&A is the fastest way to achieve those results In the manufacturing space, watch for firms to build by buying, often in partnership with PEs or possibly hedge funds Health care companies can expect renewed deal volume as volatility declines with a proliferation of understanding the complexities of Obamacare A Seller’s Market