1 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin by: Mac McKee, Director and Abedalrizq Khalil Graduate Research Assistant Utah Water Research Laboratory Laboratory Utah State University

2 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Abedalrizq Khalil:

3 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Overview: about the Sevier Basinabout the Sevier Basin the Sevier River Water Users databasethe Sevier River Water Users database development of real-time management modelsdevelopment of real-time management models implementationimplementation

4 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin… about 12.5% of the area of Utahabout 12.5% of the area of Utah arid climatearid climate flows to a terminal lakeflows to a terminal lake surface water is mostly used for irrigationsurface water is mostly used for irrigation managed by a single entity, the Sevier River Water Usersmanaged by a single entity, the Sevier River Water Users has been heavily instrumentedhas been heavily instrumented many diversion/release structures are remotely controlled via the webmany diversion/release structures are remotely controlled via the web

5 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir

6 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir releases

7 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: Piute Reservoir outlet controls (replaced)

8 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: automated controls for canal diversions

9 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin RichfieldCanaldiversionstructure

10 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: canal flow monitoring

11 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin: weather station

12 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Web-based dissemination of information

13 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Reservoir volumes…

14 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users Reservoir discharges and elevations…

15 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Data and Information: The Sevier River Water Users River and canal flow conditions…

16 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Using only raw data, available on a near real-time basis, the Sevier River Water Users have: achieved substantial improvement in system efficiencyachieved substantial improvement in system efficiency greatly improved management during recent years of drought for many canal companiesgreatly improved management during recent years of drought for many canal companies reduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus lower basinreduced water disputes, especially upper basin versus lower basin

17 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Availability of raw data could also make analysis possible: development and application of near real-time operations models, especially for system components with long travel timesdevelopment and application of near real-time operations models, especially for system components with long travel times o canal diversions o reservoir releases

18 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Applications to date: six-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatchsix-month ahead forecasts of monthly flows at Hatch 24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek24-hour forecasts of flows on Clear Creek daily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canaldaily operations of Sevier Valley/Piute Canal daily operations of Piute Reservoirdaily operations of Piute Reservoir hourly operations of Piute Reservoirhourly operations of Piute Reservoir

19 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin The Sevier River Basin…

20 Modeling of Piute Reservoir Releases: meet water orders, minimize spills Piute Reservoir Vermillion “Reservoir” Clear Creek Sevier Valley/ Piute Canal Joseph Canal Elsinore Canal Richfield Canal Vermillion Canal Monroe/South Bend Canal Monroe Canal Brooklyn Canal Annabella Canal hourly modelhourly model forecast, hour-by-hour, the reservoir release recommended to meet downstream canal diversionsforecast, hour-by-hour, the reservoir release recommended to meet downstream canal diversions capture and report information about uncertainty of the forecast releasecapture and report information about uncertainty of the forecast release learn from mistakes and improve future forecastslearn from mistakes and improve future forecasts Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin

21 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling approaches: “intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based)“intelligent systems” approach (versus physically based) several methods examined:several methods examined:  neural nets  “lazy learners”  methods from statistical learning theory: support vector machines; relevance vector machines

22 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Problems encountered: annual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very difficultannual hydrologic changes make pattern recognition very difficult farmers can’t make up their mindsfarmers can’t make up their minds farmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their betsfarmers, ditch riders, and canal operators hedge their bets reservoir operators don’t listen to them, anywayreservoir operators don’t listen to them, anyway The methods we are using must be able to recognize patterns in order to provide a reliable prediction of how much water to release/divert, and they should be smart enough to retrain themselves when their predictions become poor. 

23 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Inputs “Novelty” Detection State Prediction No Perform Model Selection Update decision rule (RVM) Feature Extraction Yes Adaptive Simulated Annealing

24 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Input data: Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water demands and streamflow in tributary streams to fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour):Data that reflect the physical forces that cause water demands and streamflow in tributary streams to fluctuate throughout the day and from one day to the next are utilized (13 total inputs, each hour):  hourly total solar radiation  previous-day hourly streamflow  precipitation  air temperature

25 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Model Selection… The influence of the “distracted variables” is suppressed by very low estimates of their corresponding scale parameter, . Input dimension Normalized scale

26 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (no “drift” correction)

27 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Detection of system “drift”…

28 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Modeling results: 2003 irrigation season (with “drift” correction)

29 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Time Scaled Releases (cfs) P impress them with lots of colors… Uncertainty estimate and displays…

30 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Residuals can be used to judge model performance

31 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin What comes next: programming the “model” as a stand-alone package-- happening nowprogramming the “model” as a stand-alone package-- happening now “blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening now“blind” testing the package against 2004 data--happening now implement on the Sevier River Water Users web site-- Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Reservoir gate controllersimplement on the Sevier River Water Users web site-- Roger Hansen wants to hook the model up to the Piute Reservoir gate controllers

32 Real-Time Management of Irrigation Facilities in the Sevier River Basin Visit us at: or contact:Mac McKee, ,