Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University June 7, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University June 7, 2005

Economic Growth in the Information Age INTRODUCTION: Prices of Information Technology THE INFORMATION AGE: Faster, Better, Cheaper! ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Cost of Capital AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda

THE INFORMATION AGE: Faster, Better, Cheaper! MOORE'S LAW: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every months(Pentium 4, released November 20,2000, has 42 million transistors). MOORE (1998): "If the automobile industry advanced as rapidly as the semiconductor industry, a Rolls Royce would get half a million miles per gallon, and it would be cheaper to throw it away than to park it." INVENTION OF THE TRANSISTOR: Development of Semiconductor Technology. THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT: Memory Chips; Logic Chips.

Source: No Exponential is Forever, Gordon Moore ftp://download.intel.com/research/silicon/Gordon_Moore_ISSCC_ pdf

HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANT Matched Models and Hedonics SOFTWARE: Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account. SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES: Memory and Logic Chips. COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES: The BEA-IBM Collaboration. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT: Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.

Relative Prices of Computers and Semiconductors, All price indexes are divided by the output price index ComputersMemoryLogic

Relative Prices of Computers, Communications and Software, All price indexes are divided by the output price index ComputersCentral Office Switching EquipmentPrepackaged Software

ComputersCommunicationsSoftware Relative Prices of Computers, Communications and Software, All price indexes are divided by the output price index

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Growth of Output. OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. OUTPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT: IT versus Non-IT Value Added.

ComputersCommunicationsSoftwareTotal Output Shares of Information Technology by Type,

Output Contribution of Information Technology by Type Output contributions are the average annual growth rates, weighted by the output shares. Computers Communications Software

Non-IT Consumption Non-IT InvestmentIT Output Output Contribution of Information Technology

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. INPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION: IT versus Non-IT Capital Services.

ComputersCommunications EquipmentSoftwareTotal Input Shares of Information Technology by Type,

Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology by Type Computers Communications Software

Non-IT Capital ServicesIT Capital Services Capital Input Contribution of Information Technology

AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth. AVERAGE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: Capital Deepening, Labor Quality, TFP. TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: IT-Production versus Non-IT Production. SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.

Contributions of Information Technology to Total Factor Productivity Growth Contributions are average annual relative price changes, weighted by average nominal output shares. Non-IT ProductionIT Production

Sources of Gross Domestic Product Growth Labor Input Non-IT Capital Input IT Capital Input Non-IT Production IT Production

Sources of Average Labor Productivity Growth Labor Quality Non-IT Capital Deepening IT Capital Deepening Non-IT TFP IT TFP

ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda. Modeling IT and the semiconductor industry: permanent versus transitory contributions to economic growth. The Solow Paradox -- we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics -- versus the Information Age. Equity Valuations and Growth Prospects: accumulation of intangible assets versus irrational exuberance. Widening Wage Inequality:capital-skill complementarity versus skill-biased technical change.