Modernisation and secularisation quantified Marion Burkimsher Observatoire des Religions, University of Lausanne, Switzerland Marion Burkimsher Observatoire des Religions, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

Modernization and secularization quantified Marion Burkimsher Observatoire des Religions, University of Lausanne, Switzerland Marion Burkimsher Observatoire des Religions, University of Lausanne, Switzerland

All countries moved from left to right, ie to a higher HDI, except Belarus and Russia

Measure of modernisation: the Human Development Index Composite indicator (max. 100) combining measures of: Health: life expectancy at birth Health: life expectancy at birth Education: adult literacy and school enrolment Education: adult literacy and school enrolment Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP) Wealth: GDP per capita (PPP) Measure of secularisation: attendance at religious services World Values Survey: data from 4 waves 1981, 1990, 1999, 2006 Attendance at religious service: at least once a month = attender Any religion, self-defined by respondent

45 countries: needed to have HDI data and WVS data for 2 years, so that a trend could be plotted Highly developed countries are over-represented Because of measurement and sampling issues, any data point can have a wide margin of uncertainty

Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is wide

The area between the black dashed lines can be considered the “natural level” of religiosity of a population given its level of development. This “normal band” is roughly the trendline +/- 10% These countries have been in the “normal band” at some point: India, Turkey, Brazil, Iran, Romania, South Korea, Hungary, Slovenia, Great Britain, Belgium, Australia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Spain, France, Finland, Norway, Japan, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland (21 countries)

These countries have been above the “normal band” and their most recent trend is downwards: Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, Peru, Argentina, Chile, Malta, Poland, Iceland, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain, Canada, United States, Australia (16 countries) However, these countries are above the “normal band” but have not seen recent falls: South Africa, Nigeria, South Korea, Italy, Portugal (5 countries) Exceptions to prove the rule?

These countries were initially below the “normal band” but are now closer to it (most have seen rises in attendance rates): Moldova, Viet Nam, China, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Iceland, Finland (11 countries) Only Bulgaria is the exception to this pattern, having moved a little further away from the “normal band”

Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is wide Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards this

Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is wide Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards this Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania

Conclusion 1: there is a correlation of higher development being associated with lower religiosity, but the spread of values is wide Conclusion 2: There is a natural level of religiosity related to a country’s level of development and there is convergence towards this Conclusion 3: Some countries have had a period of revival, which has then been followed by renewed secularisation if that revival took them above the “normal band”, eg. South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Romania Conclusion 4: Many countries are approaching maximum development (as defined by the HDI), but the minimum attendance rates would appear to be around 10-20% of the population

Possible feedback mechanisms Health: more religious people tend to have healthier lifestyles - less smoking, drinking, promiscuity, greater social cohesion Health: more religious people tend to have healthier lifestyles - less smoking, drinking, promiscuity, greater social cohesion Education: in highly educated countries, young people are more likely to be attenders if they have either a high education or a low educational level Education: in highly educated countries, young people are more likely to be attenders if they have either a high education or a low educational level Wealth: in highly developed countries, individuals in wealthier households are less likely to be attenders Wealth: in highly developed countries, individuals in wealthier households are less likely to be attenders Less developed countries attract aid, often delivered by religious organisations Less developed countries attract aid, often delivered by religious organisations Immigration: highly developed countries attract immigrants who bring their higher religiosity with them Immigration: highly developed countries attract immigrants who bring their higher religiosity with them Fertility: in highly developed countries, attenders have a higher fertility than secular people Fertility: in highly developed countries, attenders have a higher fertility than secular people

What next? As many developed countries are approaching “maximum development” as defined by the HDI, what new factors will come into play? The HDI does not consider other measures of “development”, such as urbanisation, (tele)communications, insecurity…