ISAB Snake River 2010 Spill-Transport Review ISAB – Presentation to Council April 14, 2010

Assignment On February 25, 2010, NOAA Fisheries requested the ISAB review their proposal to defer spill and move to max transport for May The NOAA review request included reference to reports by NWFSC, FPC, USACE, and ISAB. In March 2010 ODFW raised some questions and provided additional information.

Independent Scientific Advisory Board for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Columbia River Basin Indian Tribes, and National Marine Fisheries Service 851 SW 6 th Avenue, Suite 1100 Portland, Oregon J. Richard Alldredge, Ph.D., Professor of Statistics at Washington State University. James Congleton, Ph.D., Emeritus Fisheries Professor, University of Idaho Nancy Huntly, Ph.D., Professor of Wildlife Biology at Idaho State University. Roland Lamberson, Ph.D., Professor of Mathematics and Director of Environmental Systems Graduate Program at Humboldt State University. Colin Levings, Ph.D., Scientist Emeritus and Sessional Researcher at Centre for Aquaculture and Environmental Research, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada. Robert J. Naiman, Ph.D., Professor of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences at U of Washington William Pearcy, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus of Oceanography at Oregon State University. Bruce Rieman, PhD, Research Scientist Emeritus, U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station Greg Ruggerone, Ph.D., Fisheries Scientist for Natural Resources Consultants, Affiliated Research Scientist Alaska Salmon Program at the School of Fisheries, U of Washington Dennis Scarnecchia, Ph. D., Professor of Fish and Wildlife Resources at University of Idaho. Peter Smouse, Ph.D., Professor of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources at Rutgers University. Chris Wood, Ph.D., Head of Conservation Biology Section at Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canada.

Acknowledgments ISAB colleagues Council staff NOAA FPC ODFW USFWS Other contributors

Scope of ISAB Review Focus on new data, analyses and conclusions within the context of the previous ISAB spill-transport report (ISAB ). Does not make policy recommendations; rather attempts to present current scientific understanding in a form that can be used by policy makers.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS NOAA: transport provides higher SARs for s/s Chinook and steelhead; T:M ratios >1 -- data from ODFW: increased spill associated with increased in-river survival for s/s Chinook and steelhead between LGR and MCN.

Synopsis—NOAA, ODFW, FPC, and USFWS (cont’d) FPC: potential effects on other species, effects of transport on straying, comparison of spill versus transport in 2005 and USFWS: additional years would improve understanding of spill effects under low- flow conditions and potential costs of no spill to lamprey populations.

ISAB Conclusion 1: Multi-species Perspective Combinations of transport and in-river migration with spill spreads the risk across species, stocks, and the ecosystem Offers an approach that can shed light on uncertainties in the longer-term dataset.

ISAB Conclusion 2: Operational Changes – Lessons Learned A mixed strategy in low-flow conditions provides an important opportunity to learn from the concurrent spill and transport mix of recent years.

ISAB Conclusion 3: Addressing Uncertainties - Lamprey A gap in knowledge remains on the effects of spill-transport operations on downstream juvenile Pacific lamprey migration. A means of tracking migrating juvenile lamprey is needed.

ISAB Conclusion 4: Addressing Uncertainties - Sockeye Continuing new studies to examine the relative benefits of spill and transport for sockeye could reduce uncertainties about sockeye juvenile migration.

ISAB Conclusion 5: Addressing Uncertainties – Straying Out-of-basin straying is a concern with reports that transported steelhead have higher straying rates and lower homing rates than fish migrating in-river.

ISAB Conclusion 6: Spill as the Baseline – Ecological and Evolutionary Considerations The premise that spill more closely mimics natural evolutionary and ecological processes than maximum transportation argues for a mixed strategy to balance risks and conserve diversity and future potential.

Overall From a scientific standpoint, a mixed strategy for spill and transport is best supported by the available science. Ecological and evolutionary considerations provide an important framework in support of this strategy.

Thank you!