Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Russian Summer Heat Wave 2010: Climatological Background and Intraseasonal Evolution Igor Zveryaev, Yulia Zyulyaeva Sergey Gulev, Klaus Peter Koltermann.

Advertisements

1995 Chicago heat wave 5 days above 100°F apparent temperature 739 deaths 1,072 hospitalizations 3,300 ED visits 14.6 heat-related death rate ratio.

Plant Sector Workshop March 21, MIT – Progress on the Science of Weather and Climate ExtremesMarch 29, 2012 Motivation –Billion-dollar Disasters.

Warming Hole-fact or fiction? Vasu Misra Florida State University.

Scaling Laws, Scale Invariance, and Climate Prediction

Gabriel Lau Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA Princeton University Heat Waves and Climate Change.

Downstream weather impacts associated with atmospheric blocking: Linkage between low-frequency variability and weather extremes Marco L. Carrera, R. W.

Interannual Variability in Summer Hydroclimate over North America in CAM2.0 and NSIPP AMIP Simulations By Alfredo Ruiz–Barradas 1, and Sumant Nigam University.

Shanese Breitkreitz. Meaning – La Nina  The little girl  El Viejo – Old Man  A cold event  A cold episode.

Notes – Surface Currents

Past and future changes in temperature extremes in Australia: a global context Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events,

Impacts of Climate Change on Physical Systems PPT

Instrumental Observed Temperature Trends - ANNUAL IPCC TAR (2001)

Ocean Currents. Huge Rivers in the Ocean Ocean currents are huge rivers flowing within the ocean. Each current has its own temperature and its own saltiness.

Changes in NAO and ENSO 3.4 and Their Effects on U.S. Climate by Elise Lancaster METEO 497A April 22, 2003.

Factors That Affect Climate (Temp and Precipitation) Latitude, Elevation, Global Winds, Proximity to Water, Ocean Currents.

Summer 2010 Forecast. Outline Review seasonal predictors Focus on two predictors: ENSO Soil moisture Summer forecast Look back at winter forecast Questions.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For Real-time information:

Norway Gabriele, Michela & Daniele 1. Where is Norway? 2 Norway is in the northern hemisphere in the north of Europe. Gabriele, Michela & Daniele.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 July 2010 For Real-time information:

Tailored climate indices for DRR (infrastructure) Elena Akentyeva Main Geophysical Observatory, ST. PETERSBURG, RF.

Climates of The World.

Monitoring of the Global Surface Climate Ayako Takeuchi Climate Prediction Division, JMA.

CLIMATE. Weather vs Climate Weather: what is happening in the atmosphere at a particular place and time –Ex: Daily weather forecast for Minneapolis 24ºF,

An Analysis of the Nature of Short Term Droughts and Floods During Boreal Summer Siegfried Schubert, Hailan Wang* and Max Suarez NASA/GSFC Global Modeling.

The climate in USA varies across different parts of the country. The western and southern parts of US are warmer. The eastern and northern parts of.

Summary of observed changes in precipitation and temperature extremes (D9)

El Nino and La Nina opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle describes the changes in temperature between the ocean.

Abnormal Weather October 22, Teleconnections Teleconnections: relationship between weather or climate patterns at two widely separated locations.

Trends in Iowa Precipitation: Observed and Projected Future Trends Christopher J. Anderson, PhD Scientist, Assistant Director Climate Science Initiative.

France John A. Borkowski/Malcolm G. Peters. Thermohaline Circulation: part of the large-scale ocean circulation that is driven by global density gradients.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 August 2010 For Real-time information:

Convection Regions, Global Winds, Jet Streams. Atmospheric Convection Regions Since earth is unevenly heated, climate zones occur (different convection.

Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 June 2010 For Real-time information:

Climate variability and predictability over South Eastern European regions.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 October 2009 For Real-time information:

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 May 2010 For Real-time information:

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 August 2010 For Real-time information:

Southern California February 9, 2002 MISR mesoscale climate dynamics in Southern California Sebastien Conil Alex Hall IRI, April 4, 2006.

Diagnosing the sensitivity of O 3 air quality to climate change over the United States Moeko Yoshitomi Daniel J. Jacob, Loretta.

Importance of chemistry-climate interactions in projections of future air quality Loretta J. Mickley Lu Shen, Daniel H. Cusworth, Xu Yue Earth system models.

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 November 2009 For Real-time information:

Ocean Current s.  Warm currents flow away from the equator.  Cold currents flow toward the equator. Ocean Currents.

Homogenization of daily data series for extreme climate index calculation Lakatos, M., Szentimey T. Bihari, Z., Szalai, S. Meeting of COST-ES0601 (HOME)

Northern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crop Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 February 2010 For Real-time information:

Climate. Weather: a local area’s short-term temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, and other physical conditions of the lower.

Fact Statements.  Surface currents are mainly caused by prevailing winds.  Their flow is controlled by the winds, Earth’s rotation and location of the.

Northeast Regional Climate Information Projected Climate Changes for the Northeast More frequent and intense extreme precipitation events, 100-year storm.

ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.

Climate Activities.

Tanya L. Spero1, Megan S. Mallard1, Stephany M

Ecoregions Of Texas Yamileth Escarcega.

A project within the EC 5th Framework Programme EVK2-CT

Differential Heating – Specific Heat

Climate- Abiotic factor

Chapter 14: Section ). You will be able to define what an el niño and la niña Event is. 2). You should be able to explain what causes el niño.

What factors influence climate?

Short term Climate change

Rangeland: Regions of North America

General Atmospheric Circulation

Southwest climate basics

Currents and Climates Notes.

Meteorology Objectives: Differentiate between weather & climate

Global Weather Patterns

To identify, describe and list factors that control ocean currents

Energy / Convection 6.E.2.B.3.

Fig. 1 a) All-India Summer (JJAS) Monsoon rainfall anomalies (% of mean) during The 31-yr sliding mean of the anomalies is shown in.

Presentation transcript:

Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel

HiRAM_HCM3CFSR

≥ 3 days duration Time 90 th Percentile 75 th Percentile Daily Maximum Surface Air Temperature Identification of a Heat Wave Event Average Temperature ≥ 90 th Percentile value

Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 1 mm d -1

Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 2 mm d -1

Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 3 mm d -1

Surface Air Temperature Change minus RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 oCoC

RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 Observation Model Model Model Ratio: vs Model Model Ratio: vs Duration (days) Number of Events per year Number of Heat Wave days per year Heat Waves in Region 2

Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region Region Region RCP 4.5 Model Projections Ratio: vs Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Region Region Region RCP 8.5

Present PDF HiRAM_HCM3 Region 1 Region 2 Region 3

# HEAT WAVE DAYS HiRAM HiRAM vs CFSR Days/yr

Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations Surface Temperature Precipitation °C mm/dy

Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Midwest Northern Plains Pacific Northwest SE Canada Texas-Oklahoma Mid-Atlantic California Gulf Coast Southwest Wyoming/Montana/ Idaho Model Projections Ratio: vs

Rotated EOF Tmax

European Heat Waves Mode 1 Mode 2 Surface Temperature Precipitation mm day -1 oCoC

Duration# Events/yr# Heat wave days/yr Western Russia Eastern Europe Western Europe RCP 4.5 Model Projections Ratio: vs

Thank You