1 April 17, 2006 LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services NOAA’s National Weather Service Unidata Policy Committee NOAA/NWS Status

2 Outline Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS) Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Digital Services NWS Budget

3 Implementing an Integrated Upper-air Observing System (IUOS) Strategy and Roadmap

4 NOAA’s Observation System Target Architecture Partnerships National International Target Architecture Principles: Utility Focus on societal benefits Requirements-based All data archived and accessible Interoperability Full and open data sharing Standards-based Flexibility Leverages new technology Sustainability Build on existing systems Affordability Effectively use non-NOAA systems

5 Background Toward Integrated Observing Systems Need for improved and cost-effective observations of Earth system driving plans for integrated observing systems in NOAA, nationally, and globally through GEOSS In NOAA, plans underway for integrated ocean (IOOS) and surface (ISOS) observation systems IOOSISOS

6 Background Why IUOS? NOAA currently spends $100M/yr on upper-air observations (not including satellites) Platforms and DMAC fragmented across LOs, Programs, and Goals resulting in duplication and cost-inefficiency New systems coming NPN refurbishment and expansion MDCRS/Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS) Radiosonde Replacement System (RRS) PDM direction to begin eliminating radiosonde/aircraft observation duplication Radars, UAS, Satellites, … Plan is needed for integrated upper-air observation system (IUOS) supporting NOAA mission linked to IOOS and ISOS Upper-air System Average Annual Investment Amount, FY08-12 ($M) Aircraft Obs4.86 Communications6.69 GPS IPW0.45 Lightning0.75 Profilers11.21 Radar46.99 Radiosondes14.02 Adaptive Obs14.30 Total99.27 NOAA Investment/yr ($M) by System

7 What is IUOS? Definition Complete network (including DMAC) of all upper-air observation systems available to NOAA regardless of: parameter, data quality, ownership, timeliness, or redistribution rights Aircraft Observations over U.S.

8 What is IUOS? Mission and Requirements Space IUOS Mission: Cost-effectively meet existing NOAA upper-air observation requirements; and future validated requirements for: Improved spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution New observations of environmental parameters Data Management and Communications (DMAC) Upper-air observation requirements space: Geographical Extent: Global Vertical Extent: 10 m above surface to Sun Temporal Range: Warnings to Global Climate Change Prediction Parameters: Winds, temperature, pressure, moisture, air chemistry, reflectivity, aerosols, biology, …. IUOS part of GEOSS

9 What is IUOS? Solution Characteristics IUOS solution characteristics – Future IUOS will be: Adaptable, extensible, stable, continuous, and quality assured Cost-effective – avoid unnecessary duplication Serving multi-purposes - including driving Earth-system models Consistent with/component of USGEO and GEOSS Final Operating Capability: “Optimal” mix of NOAA and non-NOAA observation platforms including both in situ and remote sensors based on NOSA Architecture Principles IUOS Platforms and Sensors

10 Where are We? Known Components of Future IUOS Radiosondes with GPS (RRS) -- completed by FY 08 Aircraft 1700 aircraft (MDCRS) today expanding to 2000 by FY aircraft with WVSS today expanding to 1135 by FY 12 NOAA directing elimination of redundancies between radiosondes and aircraft observations starting in FY 08 Refurbished/expanded NOAA Profiler Network (NPN) Completed by FY 09 IOOS expanding NPN to coastal areas in FY 07 Satellite evolution will occur, but details unclear GPS IPW, UAS, Phased Array radar, and other new technologies on/over horizon Aircraft Obs (MDCRS) Routes Potential New IOOS Profilers Profilers Existing NOAA Profilers

11 How will we get there? Implementation Strategy -- Phased In the context of existing observing systems… Phase 1: Integrate In Situ Regional Soundings (IOC – FY08) Platforms: Radiosondes, aircraft (MDCRS, WVSS, TAMDAR) DMAC: Ensure compliance with GEO-IDE Principles and Standards – ditto in subsequent phases Phase 2: Integrate Regional Soundings (IOC – FY10) Platforms: Phase 1+ Profilers (NPN), Cooperative Agency Profilers (CAP), GPS Integrated Precip. Water (IPW), Satellite Soundings and IPW Phase 3: Integrate Regional Radar Observations (IOC – FY12) Platforms: Phase 2+NEXRAD, TDWR, Dual Pol, Phased Array, Other Radars (e.g., Commercial, CASA) Phase 4: Integrate Adaptive Observations (IOC – FY 14) Platforms: Phase 3+G-IV, P-3, UAS Phase 5: Integrate Use of Future Satellite Observations (IOC – FY 16) Platforms: Phase 4+GOES-R, NPOESS, Other satellites W&W/NWS Lead Other NOAA Lead Satellite Radar Adaptive In Situ IUOS Components

12 How will we get there? System Roadmap for Phases PAR T-Bed 5 Radiosonde 92 NWS, 10 Caribbean Profilers 1-for-1 RAOB/Aircraft Obs Radar (Phased Array) Actual # profilers required determined by Int. Reg. Sndg Aircraft (MDCRS) Communications and Optimization Unfunded Aircraft w/Water Vapor Radar (FAA TDWR) ESA Galileo IOC FY08 Radar (Dual Pol) Actual # 1-for1 stns determined By In Situ Sndg Strategy 98 Radar (Other, NetRad/CASA) ? ? 158 # FAA TDWRs Determined by Int Radar Strategy 100% Complete FY OK T-Bed Phase 1 – In Situ Sndgs Phase 3 – Int Radar RRS Profilers MHz Sites PAR T-Bed FY15 45 FYXX Phase 2 – Int Region Sndgs FY06 Earmark funds all 102 stations for RRS upgrade GPS IPW 200 Actual # GPS-Met IPW Determined by Int. Reg. Sndg FYXX ? ? ? ? R&D Sites Operational Sites 50 Buoy Mounted Profilers

13 Phase 1: Radiosonde/ WV Aircraft Obs PDM Guidance In FY06: Evaluate model response to water- vapor sensor derived data Evaluate implications of –forecasters using different data source and, –reaction of broader US weather enterprise. Use evaluation to develop plan for implementation In FY08: Begin eliminating redundant capability for weather observations PDM Guidance ($M)

14 Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS) Sounding Exchange Leverage aircraft water vapor sensor profile Utilizes vertical data sets from ascent & descent of aircraft –Obtains higher resolution observations Reduce total number of launches of Radiosondes Target sites outside of Climatological Requirements Targeted sites will launch 1 per day –Allows limited specials for severe weather and other discrete events Saves $’s by reducing expendables

15 Phase 1: One-for-One (Radiosonde vs. WVSS) Sounding Exchange Estimated Cost Savings One Radiosonde Launch Eliminated per Day 1/ Limited to costs for expendable supplies such as helium, balloon, parachute, etc Labor costs not included

16 NOAA IUOS Current Data Management Capacity Observing system architecture and data management are fragmented across LOs, Mission Goals, and Programs SensorsSystem MonitoringQC/QADistributionArchive GOES/POESSOCSOCGOES/POES, NOAAPORTNCDC NPNNPN HubNPN HubMADIS, NOAAPORTNCDC/FSL NLDNVaisalaVaisalaVaisala, NOAAPORTVaisala WSR-88DROCWFO, RFC, ROCAWIPS WAN, NOAAPORTNCDC ASOS CeilometerAOMCWFO, AOMC NOAAPORTNCDC GPS IPWNPN HubNPN HubNPN HubFSL RadiosondeWFO, Gateway,WFO, NCEP, Gateway NOAAPORT, GTSNCDC GCOS-GUANNCDCNCDC MDCRSAir Carriers, ARINCNCEP, MADISARINC, NOAAPORTFSL P-3, G-IVAOML, OMAONCEP, AOMLFTP, NOAAPORTNCDC PIREPS/AIREPS RTVS, ARMSNCEP, NCDCNCEP, NCDCNCDC

17 NOAA IUOS End State: Data Management Functionally Streamlined System ComponentSystem MonitoringDistributionArchive 1. SatellitesSatellite Ops CenterNOAAPORTNNDCs Research Satellites* Integrated QC/QANOAA Central Portal NPOESS/GOES-R* MetadataNNDC E-commerce * Data Continuity/CalibrationNNDCs/SAA * Performance Monitoring 2. Radar/VHF/LidarTerrestrial Remote NPN Sensing Monitoring Center WSR-88D, TDWR * Integrated QA/QC GPS IPW * Metadata Radiometer* Data Continuity/Calibration ASOS Ceilometer * Performance Monitoring Lightning Data (NLDN) NetRad/Commercial Radar 3. In Situ SensorsIn Situ Monitoring Center Radiosonde* Integrated QA/QC AMDAR/MDCRS/TAMDAR* Metadata ASAP* Data Continuity/Calibration PIREPS/AIREPS* Performance Monitoring 4. Targeting/Adaptive SensorsAdaptive Obs Monitoring Center P-3. G-IV, UAS* Integrated QA/QC SFMR * Metadata Driftsondes * Data Continuity/Calibration Dropsondes * Performance Monitoring * Targeting/Uncertainty

18 Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Update

19 IOOS: According to Ocean.US The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide. - From the IOOS Development Plan [Adopted by ICOSRMI]

20 Background – IOOS the Big Picture The U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System Development Plan is an Interagency Committee on Ocean Science and Resource Management Integration (ICOSRMI) plan AGM for FY 08-12: NOAA must “manage Earth observations on a global scale, ranging from atmospheric, weather, and climate observations to oceanic, coastal, and marine life observations” IOOS is designated as a NOAA Major Project: NOC and NOSC oversight Manager: Dave Zilkoski; Deputy: Mike Johnson; DMAC Focal Point: Kurt Schnebele  The US Ocean Action Plan calls for IOOS  GEOSS is a comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained international network of observations  IOOS is the US contribution to GOOS which is the ocean component of GEOSS

21 IOOS Components U.S. IOOS has three interdependent subsystems: Observing (Global and Coastal components) Data Management & Communication (DMAC) Modeling and Analysis MA Coastal Ocean Component GLsNE SE Go Mex Pac Isl GoA NW Global Ocean Component National Backbone Regional Observing Systems Resolution Lower Higher DMAC* C&No Cal So Cal Partners: Federal Agencies  NOAA  NSF  Navy  NASA  EPA  USGS  MMS  USACE Regional Associations State Agencies WMO/IOCPartners: Federal Agencies  NOAA  NSF  Navy  NASA  EPA  USGS  MMS  USACE Regional Associations State Agencies WMO/IOC * Ocean Component of NOAA GEO IDE

22 NOAA’s IOOS Observing Systems By NOAA Mission Goal (As defined in the NOAA Observing System Architecture) Commerce & Transportation Hydrographic Surveys (includes bathymetry) National Current Observations National Water Level Obs. Network (NWLON) Phy. Oceanographic Real Time Sys. (PORTS) Shoreline Surveys Climate  IOOS Arctic Observing System  IOOS Argo Profiling Floats*  IOOS Drifting Buoys  IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks*  IOOS Ocean Reference Station*  IOOS Ships of Opportunity  IOOS Tide Gauge Stations  IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys Ecosystems  Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP)*  Coral Reef Ecosystem Integrated Observing System (CREIOS)  Commercial Fisheries-Dependent Data  Economic/ Sociocultural Observing System*  Ecosystem Surveys  Fish Surveys  National Observer Program  Protected Resource Surveys  Recreational Fisheries-Dependent Data  System-Wide Monitoring Program (SwiM) for Marine Sanctuaries*  System-Wide Monitoring Program (SWMP) for National Estuarine Research Reserves  Passive Acoustics Observing System*  National Status and Trends Program* Weather & Water  Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN)  DART  Voluntary Observing Ships  Weather Buoys  SEAWIFS* Coastal Total Systems: 23 Mission Support  NOAA Ships  NOAA Aircraft*  NOAA Satellite (managed outside of IOOS) Global Total Systems: 8 * - NOAA is working to update Interagency IOOS documentation

23 IOOS Observing Subsystem: Global Component  Designed to meet climate requirements but also supports: Weather prediction Global and coastal ocean prediction Marine hazards warning Transportation Marine environment and ecosystem monitoring Naval applications Homeland security  Objectives are well defined with GPRA performance measures.  Well coordinated nationally and internationally.  System 55% complete.  NOAA capacities: $43.5 million 19 centers of expertise 151 people Office of Climate Observation - a demonstration project directly applicable to the IOOS Project. NOAA contributes 53% of the present international effort.  IOOS Tide gauge stations  IOOS Drifting Buoys  IOOS Tropical Moored Buoys  IOOS Argo Profiling Floats  IOOS Ships of Opportunity  IOOS Ocean Reference Stations  IOOS Ocean Carbon Networks  IOOS Arctic Observing System  Dedicated Ship Support  Data & Assimilation Subsystems  Management and Product Delivery  Satellites (managed outside of IOOS)

24 IOOS Observing Subsystem Components: Coastal Component- National Backbone  Designed to meet IOOS societal goals and all 5 NOAA Mission Goals Also supports other agency and partner efforts to manage our Nation’s oceans, coasts, and Great Lakes  Coordinated nationally and regionally focusing on partnerships.  System 25 – 35% complete.  Better defining objectives and working on developing strong GPRA measures.  NOAA capacities: ~$600M - $700M support IOOS ~$55M/year is for integration efforts 24 programs contribute, 8-9 major contributors Project Office in NOS AA’s office coordinates NOAA- wide activities NOAA contributes % of the present national effort.

25 IOOS Data Management and Communications Subsystem: DMAC Definition The IOOS is a coordinated national and international network of observations and data transmission, data management and communications (DMAC), and data analyses and modeling that systematically and efficiently acquires and disseminates data and information on past, present and future states of the oceans and U.S. coastal waters to the head of tide. - From the IOOS Development Plan [Adopted by ICOSRMI] The DMAC is: Information technology infrastructure such as national backbone data systems, regional data centers, and archive centers connected by the Internet, and using shared standards and protocols. - From the DMAC Plan (March 2005)

26 IOOS DMAC Subsystem Observation/Measurement Collection Data Transmission Primary data assembly, real-time quality control Interoperable real-time distribution Delayed mode (ecosystems, climate) data assembly, quality control Archive & access Creating information products Users: requirements & feedback DMAC IOOS

27 NWS Digital Services Update

28 Current Capability Production Experimental elements: QPF Snow Amount Sky Cover Significant Wave Height Operational elements: Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Temperature Dew Point Probability of Precipitation Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Apparent Temperature * Relative Humidity * * as of 3/15/06 Operational & experimental elements available for CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii, Guam

29 Planned Enhancements Add as experimental elements during the next 12 months: Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities from the Tropical Prediction Center National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecast Parameters Elements for Alaska

30 Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: Accuracy –Expand Guidance e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS –Produce Gridded Verification –Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields Resolution –Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour resolution for Days 1-3 –Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

31 Planned Enhancements Improve over the next 12 months: Availability (reliability) –Transition to operational status XML web service –Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9% uptime) Consistency –Improve and standardize forecasters’ grid-editing tools –Modify collaboration thresholds and better procedures

32 NWS Budget FY06 – NWS has a $51M deficit in a base operations budget of $610M (labor is $480M or 79%) -Mitigation measures include: % labor reduction at NWS HQ -3% labor reduction in field -Defer new technology improvements and IT refresh (e.g.,TDWR access) -Reductions in contracts/grants/travel/supplies/outreach FY07 - PB Base operations $655M (labor is $491M or 75%) -Increases directed for buoys, tsunamis, facilities -Deficit projected at $30M in President’s budget -Expected deficit is at $40-$50M range due to unfunded pay raises, earmarks, rescissions