Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Planning and programming Planning and prioritizing Part 2 Strengthening Statistics Produced in Collaboration between World Bank Institute and the Development Data Group (DECDG)

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. The annual plan Embarking on a statistical program without a plan is a recipe for failure This is aggravated by the interdependency of a statistical agency’s activities Planning for all the interdependencies is not realistic In addition to planning, flexibility is therefore necessary The annual plan consists of the following elements: A clear set of objectives to be met by the end of the planning period Which entities are responsible for each activity A description of the activities to be undertaken A list of the requirements (incl. resources) to ensure the practicality of the objectives Fallback options should the outcomes not meet the objectives Mechanisms for monitoring and evaluation 2

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Why annual plans? The reason why statistical work programs must be annual are: The fact that the standard budgetary cycle is also annual If they were devised less frequently, they would be forgotten If they were drafted more frequently, the activity of planning would consume available resources and create a sense of instability The annual plan must fit into a longer-term framework, preventing the creation of a series of disjointed annual plans 3

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Planning, budgeting and delegation Sensible planning implies that managers should have some discretion to modify approaches in light of unforeseeable circumstances Effective planning requires the establishment of a sound budgeting approach, complete with a statement of how authority is to be delegated The plan will appoint managers to head its various activities Each project in the plan must be costed Each manager will be given the responsibility for achieving a balance between income and expenditures The managers will have the incentive of finding approaches allowing them to meet objectives with the resources allocated, instead of spending as much as possible to demonstrate their authority Planning involves controlling the resources allocated to managers 4

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Planning and accountability The greater the discretionary authority given to managers, the greater is their accountability In the framework of a plan with devolution of authority and responsibility, the chief statistician will ask for accountability from managers If the management is too inexperienced to carry out its part of the agency-wide plan, the chief statistician will not be able to comfortably delegate budgetary authority An organization can be considered mature if the head of the system can rely on subordinate managers to help formulate and carry out plans 5

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Evaluation of the plan At the end of a planning exercise the chief statistician should receive a formal evaluation This evaluation may be conducted by an outside party or by a unit within the statistical agency The evaluation serves several purposes: Accounting to the government for the work of the agency Conveying to the staff the seriousness of the process Determining the degree of error in the process and attempting to explain the causes Validating or changing the agency’s strategy 6

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Budgeting process - 1 The budgeting process usually involves the following steps: NSO drafts work program, including cost calculations NSO submits budget proposal to the ministry Negotiation between NSO and ministry Ministry may want to spend less than NSO asks for Compromise is reached Budget is finalized Budget is submitted to parliament for approval Parliament may wish to amend budget As the NSO work program must be in accordance with the amended budget, the program can only be finalized after the budget has become final 7

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Budgeting process - 2 A distinction may be made between budget for current expenditure and budget for capital investment Separate budgets are allocated for big data collection exercises, such as the census NSOs may be allowed to charge clients (e.g. ministries) additionally for surveys they undertake at the specific request of those clients NSOs may be entitled to charge users for publications bought or other services provided NSOs may be allowed to keep the revenue wholly or partly and to spend it on additional statistical activities However, almost always these forms of additional income are a small part of total resources; more than 10% is exceptional 8

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prioritizing - 1 Prioritizing in official statistics involves decisions about: Data collections to undertake: subject matter, target population, variables Program implementation and operations Which data sources to use Survey methodology (sample size, data collection procedures etc.) Statistical organization, including decisions about data processing, analysis and dissemination Various matters of resource management, including human resource management, capital investment etc. In all this, requirements of the users must be taken into account 9

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prioritizing – 2 80% or more of the budget of a statistical office is spent on core processes: data collection, data processing, analysis and dissemination 10-20% is spent on administration, management and other ‘overhead’ Therefore, decisions about core processes are at the heart of prioritizing First of all, this involves decisions about which data collections should be undertaken The complexity of these decisions depends on the size and complexity of the statistical system However, every country needs a core statistical program and it is almost impossible to prioritize within this core program 10

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prioritizing - 3 The core program of every NSS consists of: Annual national accounts, including underlying business and household collections Basic demographic data A monthly or quarterly consumer price index Basic agricultural statistics Some statistics derived from administrative data, including international trade data (based on Customs documents), health and educations statistics (based on data from the responsible ministries) All or most of these data are fundamental for macro-economic and basic social policy 11

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prioritizing - 4 Translation of users’ needs into a statistical work program is not necessarily straightforward There is often general clarity about what the users need However, it is not always clear in detail which statistics are essential to monitor the effects of government programs Because causes and effects may not always be fully understood, users may not always be able to articulate their demands Users may be in a hurry, while statisticians need time to collect and compile the required data By the time statistics have been collected, priorities may have shifted Users may not see the ‘larger picture’, e.g. what is needed to compile national accounts - there may be elements in the system for which they have little interest, but which are nevertheless necessary A distinction may be made between well-established needs and fluctuating or volatile needs 12

Copyright 2010, The World Bank Group. All Rights Reserved. Prioritizing - 5 Criteria for prioritizing are: Clearly defined user requirements The practicality of collecting quality data Legislation implying that certain statistics are produced: e.g. the Consumer Price Index Significance of statistics for the system of statistics as a whole, e.g. for the national accounts. Significance of what is measured, in money terms or population numbers Volatility of the phenomenon that is described; this is relevant for frequency of measurement Nature of use: are statistics used for policy decisions or for policy studies? Reporting burden: a high reporting burden may be seen as a ‘negative criterion’ Cost: high cost may be seen as a ‘negative criterion’ Of overarching importance for priority setting is the dialogue with users in order to achieve mutual understanding; statisticians need better understanding about what users want and users must better understand what statisticians can deliver 13