Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 17, 2004.

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Presentation transcript:

Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 17, 2004

Economic Growth in the Information Age INTRODUCTION: Prices of Information Technology THE INFORMATION AGE: Faster, Better, Cheaper! ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Cost of Capital AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda

THE INFORMATION AGE: Faster, Better, Cheaper! MOORE'S LAW: The number of transistors on a chip doubles every months(Pentium 4, released November 20,2000, has 42 million transistors). MOORE (1998): "If the automobile industry advanced as rapidly as the semiconductor industry, a Rolls Royce would get half a million miles per gallon, and it would be cheaper to throw it away than to park it." INVENTION OF THE TRANSISTOR: Development of Semiconductor Technology. THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT: Memory Chips; Logic Chips.

Transistor Density on Micro Processors and Memory Chips

HOLDING QUALITY CONSTANT Matched Models and Hedonics SOFTWARE: Prepackaged, Custom, and Own-Account. SEMICONDUCTOR PRICE INDEXES: Memory and Logic Chips. COMPUTER PRICE INDEXES: The BEA-IBM Collaboration. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT: Terminal, Switching, and Transmission.

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices and the Growth of Output. OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, Semiconductors, Software, and IT Services. OUTPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, Semiconductors, Software, and IT Services. OUTPUT CONTRIBUTION OF IT: IT versus Non-IT Value Added.

ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY: IT Prices, Investment, and Productivity. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION BY TYPE: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. INPUT SHARES OF IT: Computers, Communications Equipment, and Software. CAPITAL CONTRIBUTION: IT versus Non-IT Capital Services.

AMERICAN GROWTH RESURGENCE: IT Investment and Productivity Growth. AVERAGE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: Capital Deepening, Labor Quality, TFP. TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY: IT-Production versus Non-IT Production. SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH: Capital Input, Labor Input, and TFP.

ECONOMICS ON INTERNET TIME: The New Research Agenda. Modeling IT and the semiconductor industry: permanent versus transitory contributions to economic growth. The Solow Paradox -- we see computers everywhere but in the productivity statistics -- versus the Information Age. Equity Valuations and Growth Prospects: accumulation of intangible assets versus irrational exuberance. Widening Wage Inequality:capital-skill complementarity versus skill-biased technical change.