Belgrad nov. 2013 SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

Advertisements

Downstream weather impacts associated with atmospheric blocking: Linkage between low-frequency variability and weather extremes Marco L. Carrera, R. W.

Class #16 Monday, October 4, 2010 Class #16: Monday, October 4 Chapter 8 Oceanography and El Niño/La Niña/ENSO 1.

UCSB Climate Research Meeting Dept. of Geography ICESS- UCSB October 16, 2009 Earth Space Research Group Climate Variations and Impacts: Monthly Discussion.

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Climate Review for WY 2004 and Outlook for WY 2005 Philip Mote Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Annual Fall Forecast Meeting October 26,

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, October 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 October 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, July 2014 Initial Conditions Issued 14 July 2014 Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

Impacts of El Nino Observations Mechanisms for remote impacts.

Planetary Scale Weather Regimes: ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): A global teleconnection, strongest in the Pacific, between the tropical oceans and.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa Dec 2012 Initial Conditions Summary Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current State.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 November 2012.

Seasonal outlook of the East Asian Summer in 2015 Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency May th FOCRAII 1.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2013 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN MONSOON SYSTEM Anita Drumond and Tércio Ambrizzi University of São Paulo São Paulo, 2007

Water Year Outlook. Long Range Weather Forecast Use a combination of long term predictors –Phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) –Phase of Atlantic.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 1 October 2012 For more information,

ENSO impact to atmospheric circulation system for summer Motoaki Takekawa Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 26, 2007.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 30 December 2013 For more information,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 17, 2006.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, June 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 9 July 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update – Current.

The South American Monsoon System Summary July 2011-June 2012

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 February 2015 For more information,

Climate monitoring information on the Mediterranean Peter Bissolli Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, Germany), Dep. Climate Monitoring WMO RA VI Regional Climate.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2007.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27, 2006.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, December 2015 Initial Conditions Issued 14 December 2015 Forecast Background – ENSO update.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Global Tropics, January 2016 Initial Conditions Issued 14 January 2016 Forecast Background – ENSO update –

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 3, 2006.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 5, 2005.

January 8, 2013 Steve Baxter Monthly Climate Review December 2012.

Anomalous Behavior Unit 3 Climate of Change InTeGrate Module Cynthia M. Fadem Earlham College Russian River Valley, CA, USA.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 December 2010 For more information,

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

March 8, 2013 Steve Baxter Monthly Climate Review February 2013.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 6, 2006.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 April 2011 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 21 November 2011 For more information,

Fifth Session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2014 Hitoshi Sato Climate Prediction.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 23 March 2015 For more information,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 31, 2006.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 19, 2005.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2015 For more information,

Seasonal Climate Outlook of China in Summer 2017

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

JMA Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for OND 2017

The impacts of dynamics and biomass burning on tropical tropospheric Ozone inferred from TES and GEOS-Chem model Junhua Liu

Teleconnections in MINERVA experiments

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle Lab

AIR/SEA INTERACTION El Nino

El Nino and La Nina An important atmospheric variation that has an average period of three to seven years. Goes between El Nino, Neutral, and La Nina (ENSO.

for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

Preliminary Consensus Forecast for the 2017 NE Monsoon Season

Forecast Assimilation: A Unified Framework for the

2013 Macau Rainy Season Forecast

Seasonal prediction of South Asian summer monsoon 2010: Met Office

ENSO-NAO interactions via the stratosphere

2.3.1(iii) Impacts of El Nino

Impacts of El Nino Observations Mechanisms for remote impacts.

Nonlinearity of atmospheric response

Presentation transcript:

Belgrad nov SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France

2 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

3 Oceanic analysis SST Oct Ocean analysis From MERCATOR, reference GLORYS

4 Ocean analysis AugustSeptemberOctober Equatorial Pacific Equatorial AtlanticEquatorial Indian Kelvin waves time

5 Weak SST anomalies in equatorial regions : –Atlantic : ~neutral –Pacific : weak positive anomaly in the western part, becoming neutral in the eastern part (warming)  ENSO phase : neutral –Indian : west neutral, east positive  IOD still negative (but now ~0) Ocean analysis Niño3.4

6 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

7 Ocean forecasts SST forecasts Météo France ECMWF

8 Niño3.4 Ocean forecasts – Central Pacific

9 Ocean forecasts - Atlantic Northern tropical Atlantic (TNA) :

10 Tropics :  Pacific : weak positive anomaly around the Warm Pool; ENSO neutral  Indian : IOD ~0  Atlantic : warmer than normal conditions in Northern sub-tropics Ocean forecasts

11 Ocean forecasts

12 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes

13 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

14 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

15 Tropical response and forcing - DJF Shaded areas : velocity potential anomalies (divergent circulation anomalies) green upward motion anomaly pink downward motion anomaly Isolines : stream function anomalies (rotational circulation anomalies) blue lines cyclonic (in NH) red lines anticyclonic (in NH) Upper troposphere circulation fields (200 hPa)

16 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

17 Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

18  Relatively good consistency in tropical response to SST forcing  But no trace of teleconnection from tropics to NH mid-latitude  limited predictability related to tropical forcing General Circulation forecasts - DJF

19 Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

20 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill ( )

21 Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill ( )

22 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill ( ) outer-quintile categories

23 Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill ( ) outer-quintile categories

24 Summary for DJF. - close to normal conditions in equatorial waveguides, despite of warming of SST anomalies over the central part of Equatorial Pacific  ENSO : neutral conditions - limited predictability over mid-latitudes (Europe) - some signal (for T) over the Mediterranean basin : slightly enhanced probabilities of warmer than normal conditions

25 Temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe : DJF Skill ( ) T RR Not yet available

26

27 NAO- NAO+ Atlantic ridge Blocking SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regime occurrences in DJF (MF model) Lower Tercile Upper Tercile Lower Tercile (significance threshold 70 %) Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes

28 Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

29 Les produits « génériques » Distribution (pdf) de l’ expérience de référence Limites des catégories Catégorie « en-dessous de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Négative (16% fréquence) Catégorie « au-dessus de la Normale » (33% fréquence) « forte » Anomalie Positive (16% fréquence) - 1,0 * σ 1,0 * σ 0,43 * σ- 0,43 * σ Catégorie « Normale »