NESTOA September 16, 2011 Scott Pattison Executive Director National Association of State Budget Officers 444 North Capitol Street, NW, Suite 642 Washington, DC (202)

NASBO 3 Current Fiscal Situation

NASBO 4 State Fiscal Outlook Revenue Improvement Spring Spending Pressure Health care reform Limited federal funds Significant restructuring

NASBO Medicaid 5 Fiscal 2011 data is based on enacted budgets and fiscal 2012 data is based on governors’ proposed budgets Source: NASBO Spring 2011 Fiscal Survey of States In Millions

NASBO 6 National Economic Indicators 2nd Quarter GDP grows 1.0%  8 th straight quarter of some growth; grew 0.4% in 1 st Q. Growth forecasts revised downward CBO revises GDP forecast to 1.5% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012  NABE revises GDP forecast to 1.7% in 2011 and 2.3% in 2012 Other economic figures:  Unemployment rate unchanged at 9.1% in August CBO projects it will remain near 9% through 2012  12 Federal Reserve Districts report modest or slow growth  Manufacturing grows for 25 th straight month in August, although growth slows  Home Sales fell in July; still higher than last year

NASBO 7 State and Local Employment Continues to Decline State and local employment has declined 620,000 from the start of the recession through July  State employment declined 145,000 from Aug July 2011  Local employment declined 475,000 from Sept July 2011 State governments eliminated 23,000 positions in July alone States have also taken other personnel actions such as furloughs, early retirement, salary reduction, cuts to state employee benefits, etc. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

NASBO State Debt Level Remains Comparatively Low 8 Debt-to-GDP: U.S. States Compared to Advanced G20 Nations – Moody’s Investor Services & International Monetary Fund %

NASBO Tax and Fee Increases

NASBO 10 Current Fiscal Situation: Indicators

NASBO Budget Improvement *34-year historical average rate of growth is 5.7percent *Fiscal ‘12 numbers are recommended Source: NASBO Spring 2011 Fiscal Survey of States * Average

NASBO Budget Cuts Made After the Budget Passed ($ millions) *FY 2011 mid-year budget cuts are ongoing Source: NASBO Spring 2011 Fiscal Survey Mid-Year Budget Cuts Decline

NASBO FY 2012 Proposed Spending Still Less than FY 2008 ($ in billions) * FY 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 are actual. FY 2011 is estimated and FY 2012 is proposed..

NASBO 6 Quarters of Revenue Growth Following 5 Quarters of Declines Source: Fiscal Studies Program, Rockefeller Institute of Government; U.S. Census Bureau

NASBO * FY 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 are actual. FY 2011 is estimated and FY 2012 is proposed. ($ in billions) Revenue Remains Below Pre-Recession Levels

NASBO Balances as a Percentage of Expenditures * FY 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 are actual, FY 2011 is estimated and FY 2012 is proposed. (percentages) Balance Levels are Below Historical Average for Most States

NASBO 17 Background on State Finance Trends

NASBO 18 Spending by Funding Source (Percentage) Source: NASBO 2009 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 19 Total State Expenditures Source: NASBO 2009 State Expenditure Report

NASBO 20 General Fund: Medicaid & Education Over 63% Source: NASBO 2009 State Expenditure Report

NASBO Percentage Change in Medicaid Spending and Enrollment 21 % Source: Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured Adopted

NASBO 22 What Can Be Done? Financial Management Ask performance questions Ask for outcome data Use performance information to justify changes to programs

NASBO 23 Outlook

NASBO Major Challenges to State Budgets Spending Demands and Some Revenue Growth  Dependent on Economic Growth Health Care Cost Pressures Wind Down of Recovery Funds (Planned For) Dealing with Long Term Liabilities Court Cases/Federal Government Mandates

NASBO 25 Source: New York Times, 6/12/11 Tough Decisions to Make…

NASBO 26 Scott Pattison (202)