1 Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 4 Probability

Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Conditional Probability of Events 4.2

3 Conditional Probability of Events When the relative frequency with which an event can be expected to occur is based on the condition that additional preexisting information is known about some other event, we call this the conditional probability an event will occur. P(A | B) is used to symbolize the probability of event A occurring under the condition that event B is known to already exist.

4 Conditional Probability of Events Some ways to say or express the conditional probability, P (A | B), are: The “probability of A, given B.” The “probability of A, knowing B.” The “probability of A happening, knowing B has already occurred.”

5 Conditional Probability of Events The concept of conditional probability is actually very familiar and occurs frequently without us even being aware of it. The news media often report many conditional probability values. However, they don’t make the point that it is a conditional probability, and it passes for simple everyday arithmetic.

6 Conditional Probability of Events Consider a poll of 13,660 voters in 250 precincts across the country during the 2008 presidential election (see Table 4.2). Table 4.2

7 Conditional Probability of Events One person is to be selected at random from the sample of 13,660 voters. Using Table 4.2, find the answer to the following probability questions. 1. What is the probability that the person selected is a man? You answer: Expressed in equation form: P (voter selected is a man) = What is the probability that the person selected is 18 to 29 years old? You answer: Expressed in equation form: P (voter selected is of age 18 to 29) = 0.14.

8 Conditional Probability of Events 3. Given that the voter selected was a woman, what is the probability she voted for McCain? You answer: Expressed in equation form: P (McCain | woman) = What is the probability that the person selected voted for Obama if the voter was 65 or older? Answer: Expressed in equation form: P (Obama | 65 and older) = Note: The first two are simple probabilities, whereas the last two are conditional probabilities.

9 Conditional Probability of Events The example above involved finding conditional probabilities from a table of percentages, but we can also find conditional probabilities from a table of count data. Let’s stay with the field of politics but change our data set. This time we will consider a poll of 1,000 voters in 25 precincts across the country during the 2008 presidential election (see Table 4.3). Table 4.3

10 Conditional Probability of Events One person is to be selected at random from the sample of 1,000 voters. Using the table, find the answer to the following probability questions. 1. Given that the voter selected was a high school graduate, what is the probability the person voted for McCain? You Answer: 103/220 = = Expressed in equation form: P (McCain HS graduate) = 103/220 = = 0.47.

11 Conditional Probability of Events 2. Given that the voter selected had some college education, what is the probability the person voted for Obama? You Answer: 172/320 = = Expressed in equation form: P (Obama | some college) = 172/320 = = Given that the selected person voted for McCain, what is the probability the voter has a postgraduate education? You Answer: 88/477 = = Expressed in equation form: P (postgraduate | McCain) = 88/477 = = 0.18.

12 Conditional Probability of Events 4. Given that the selected person voted for Obama, what is the probability the voter does not have a high school education? You Answer: 19/510 = = Expressed in equation form: P (no high school | Obama) = 19/510 = = 0.04.

13 Conditional Probability of Events Notes 1. The conditional probability notation is very informative and useful. When you express a conditional probability in equation form, it is to your advantage to use the most complete notation. That way, when you read the information back, all the information is there. 2. When finding a conditional probability, some possibilities will be eliminated as soon as the condition is known. Consider question 4 above.

14 Conditional Probability of Events As soon as the conditional given that the selected person voted for Obama is stated, the 477 who voted for McCain and the 13 who voted for others are eliminated, leaving the 510 possible outcomes.