Overview

Chart 1 Tail risk (a) (a) In this simple schematic diagram, the distribution of possible events is assumed to be normal. (b) Probability density.

Chart 2 Speculative-grade corporate bond default rate forecasts Source: Moody’s Investors Service.

Chart 3 Global quarterly syndicated loan issuance Sources : Dealogic and Bank calculations

Chart 4 Arrears of 60+ days on US second-lien sub-prime home equity loans (a) Source: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (a) Year refers to year of securitisation.

Chart 5 Equity prices Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI and Bank calculations. (a) July 2006 Report

Chart 6 EME sovereign US$ bond spreads and credit ratings (a) Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Standard & Poor’s. (a)Lines represent logarithmic best-fit lines. Ratings are plotted linearly. Outliers with ratings below CCC in June 2004 (Argentina and Dominican Republic) are not shown. (b)Trough of US interest rate cycle.

Chart 7 Decomposition of borrowing costs for UK high-yield corporates (a) Sources: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch, Thomson Datastream and Bank calculations. (a)The decomposition assumes a debt maturity of 20 years. For details, see Churm, R and Panigirtzoglou, N (2005), ‘Decomposing credit spreads’, Bank of England Working Paper no. 253.

Chart 8 UK PNFCs’ (a) capital gearing (b) Sources: ONS and Bank calculations. (a) Private non-financial corporations. (b) Gearing is calculated as the ratio of debt, net of liquid assets, to the market value or replacement cost of capital.

Chart 9 US implied forward corporate credit spreads (a) Sources: Merrill Lynch and Bank calculations. One-year forward spread over swaps for BBB US corporate bonds.

Chart 10 LCFIs’ total assets Sources: Bloomberg, SEC filings, published accounts and Bank calculations. (a) Other includes (among other items) receivables, investments, goodwill and property.

Table A Change in assessment since the July 2006 Report Source: Bank calculations. (a) Assessed change in the probability of a vulnerability being triggered over the next three years. (b) Assessed change in the expected impact on the UK financial system if a vulnerability is triggered

Chart 11 Major UK banks’ and LCFIs’ credit default swap premia (a) Sources: Bloomberg, Markit Group Limited, published accounts and Bank calculations. (a) Asset-weighted average five-year premia. (b) July 2006 Report

Chart 12 Major UK banks’ pre-tax return on equity (a)(b) Sources : Published accounts and Bank calculations (a) Data for major UK banks, excluding building societies. (b) Pre-tax return on equity calculated as pre-tax profit as a proportion of shareholders’ funds and minority interests