Probabilities when Outcomes are Equally Likely

Math Message Which phrase – Extremely likely chance, or Very Unlikely best describes the chance of picking a red card from a regular deck of 52 playing cards?

Words we use to describe the likelihood of events Impossible Extremely unlikely Very unlikely Unlikely or even chance Likely Very likely Extremely likely Certain

Comparing Two Events More likely Equally likely Less likely Picking a heart is _____________ than picking the 9 of hearts.

Comparing Two Events More likely Equally likely Less likely Picking a red card and picking a black card are ____________.

Comparing Two Events More likely Equally likely Less likely Picking a face card is _______ than picking a non-face card.

Finding the Probability of Events When you randomly draw a single card from a deck of cards, 52 equally likely results or OUTCOMES are possible. An event is the specific set or collection of possible outcomes in which you are interested. Probability is the number from 0 to 1 that tells the chance that an event is going to happen.

Facts A Deck of Playing Cards has 52 CARDS A Die (singular of dice) has 6 sides A Coin has 2 sides (heads and tails)

The Classic Deck of 52 Playing Cards 4 Suits: Spades ♠, Hearts ♥, Clubs ♣, Diamonds ♦ Each suit is made up of 13 cards or ranks. A (ace), 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J (jack), Q (queen), K (king). Ace is usually considered high. J, Q, K are the face cards

A Deck of Cards Hearts ClubsDiamonds Spades

Formula Probability of an event = number of favorable outcomes number of possible outcomes A favorable outcome is an outcome that meets the conditions of an event that will make the event happen. Picking a heart is an event. A favorable outcome is picking a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, or A of hearts. There are 13 favorable outcomes out of 52 possible outcomes. The probability of the event is = 13 52

Practice Probability of an event = number of favorable outcomes number of possible outcomes Picking a face card is an event. A favorable outcome is picking a J, Q, or K of hearts, diamonds, spades, or clubs. How many favorable outcomes are there? ____ How many possible outcomes are there? ____ So the probability is ____

What are some games of chance that you know?

Games of chance include… Flipping a coin Rolling a die Rock/ Paper / Scissors Spinners Card games (blackjack, poker) Other:

Games of Chance: Rock, Paper, Scissors Did you know there are national competitions for rock, paper, scissors!

“Equally Likely” You can be beaten by paper, draw with rock or win with scissors! ….unless you always choose rock!  Where did the game originate?

Games of Chance: Jan-Ken-Pon (Rock, Paper, Scissors) Rock, paper, scissors is thought to have originated from Asia! In Japan, the game is called “jankenpon” or “janken” for short. The game is usually played for the best of three. In Japan, you say “jan” on the first beat, “ken” on the second beat, and “pon” on the third beat. If the players both throw the same choice and the round is a tie, they say, “Aikou deshou” (“ai-kou-deshou“). This means “one more time!”

Play a game against a partner 10 times and record the results copying this table into your books:: My ChoiceMy Partner’s choice My Result (Win/Loss) 묵찌빠 가위 바위 보

If you were playing “Jan-Ken-Pon” what are the chances of you winning using “Ken”? “Hmm…” (Rock) (Paper ) (Scissors)

Games of Chance: Jan-Ken-Pon (Rock, Paper, Scisors) The first game released on the Sega Master System was “Alex The Kidd.” It was the only system released with a free game built into the system’s memory (when you turned it on without a game inserted)! The bosses for each level were the Janken Brothers who you had to beat playing “Scissors, Paper, Rock!”

Games of Chance: Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock! Click picture to play video

Games of Chance: Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock!

If you were playing “Scissors, Paper, Rock, Lizard, Spock” what are the chances of you winning using “Spock”? “Hmm…” Scissors Paper Rock Lizard Spock

“Equally Likely”

Hmm.. How did the odds change when you moved from playing the 3 outcome games to the 5 outcome game (Paper, Scissors, Rock, Lizard, Spock) ?

If you had flipped a coin and 5 times in a row it came up heads, what are the chances the next time you flip it will be heads? “Hmm…”

Has the same chance of happening. 1 in 2 50 / 50 (50% / 50%) “Equally Likely” “Equally likely” means… A coin has 2 sides. Heads & tails! Statistically speaking, the chances must be 50/50

“Equally Likely” What other mathematical language/numbers can we use to describe the probability of a flipping a coin?

If you were rolling a die and you had rolled 6 two times in a row, what are the chances that you will roll six again? “Hmm…”

“Equally Likely” Your can either roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

“Equally Likely” What other mathematical language/numbers can we use to describe the probability of what could happen when you roll a die?

“Equally Likely” “Equally likely” means… Your can either roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Statistically speaking, the chances must be 1 in 6

Who thought you had a 50/50 chance of rolling a six? Whoops! Why is using the term “50/50” wrong when describing the probability outcomes of rolling a die?

Your can either roll a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Statistically speaking, the chances must be 1 in 6 (unless you’ve got dodgy dice)!

Problems 1 and 2

Partner work

Describing Mathematical Probability... using decimals Q1: Use a decimal to describe the mathematical probability for flipping a.. (a) head: P(head) = (b) tail: P(tail) = Q2: Use a decimal or fraction to describe the mathematical probability for rolling a.. (a) 1: P(1) = (b) 2: P(2) =(c) 3: P(3) = (d) 4: P(4) =(e) 5: P(5) =(f) 6: P(6) =