Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos MarinERA: Facilitating the coordination of national and regional marine RTD programmes in Europe

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos The project aims to lead to an improved understanding of the evolution of the Mediterranean Marine Ecosystem in decadal time scales, in order to lead to more reliable predictions in the context of currently evolving anthropogenic climatic change.

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Motivation (in place of an introduction): Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Motivation (in place of an introduction): Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing 11-year cycle of the solar forcing Weng, JASTP 2005

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Motivation (in place of an introduction): Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing 11-year cycle of the solar forcing Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing. Casford, 2002

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Motivation (in place of an introduction): Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing 11-year cycle of the solar forcing Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to decadal-scale forcing. Decadal scale of anthropogenic forcing….

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Why now? Because now we are in the verge of obtaining the capacity to do this: Instrumental period extending to several decades Paleoceanographic analyses reaching decadal resolutions Increased flow of proxy data covering hundreds of years at higher than decadal resolution Numerical simulations (almost) possible

MedEcos Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Scientificas Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, UAB Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University of Athens Consortium

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Approach: Attempt a reconstruction of circulation and –where possible- ecosystem structure and functions based on compilation of available information When necessary, collect and analyze additional information (sediment cores, biogeochemical functioning) Major effort in “fusing” paleoceanographic, instrumental and modelling results Attempt to reproduce past and present conditions using numerical modelling, “tuning” circulation and ecosystem models. Provide “calibrated worst-case predictions” based on the above

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos Structure of the project: WP1: Coordination – external links WP2: Field sampling WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and assessment WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts WP6: Forecasts

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP2: Field sampling Task 2.1: Primary productivity rates and community structure Task 2.2: Production, cycling and export of organic matter (OM) Task 2.3: Production and fluxes of carbonate species (coccoliths, foraminifera). Task 2.4: Temperature and salinity proxies’ calibrations Deliverables: D2.1. Calculations of PP rates and export of OM from the euphotic to the meso- and bathypelagic zones: Month 12 D2.2. Mineralization vs. export of OM under different oxidation states (high vs. low oxygen levels) : Month 12 D2.3. Export of calcareous nanoplankton and calculations of rain ratios (Organic/Carbonate fluxes) : Month 12

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion Task 3.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for the instrumental period. Source:NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model runs Resolution: temporal:monthly spatial: 2.5° x2.5° Coverage: Data interpolated to 1/10° to force the ocean circulation model in WP4.

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion Task 3.2 Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the Straits for the instrumental period. Gibraltar: Initial and boundary conditions from the oceanic component of the previously mentioned NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change Experiment coupled model runs Resolution: temporal:annual spatial: 1° x 1° Coverage: Dardanelles: Exchanges computed indirectly from the heat and freshwater budget of the Black Sea, based on the above model runs. A HF radar facility facing the Dardanelles exit will be used for assessment and possibly calibration

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP3: Instrumental period data collection and fusion Task 3.3. Collection of sediment cores for high-resolution analysis of the instrumental period. Sediment cores from selected high-sedimentation regions (deep Lemnos basin, core MD ) high-resolution analysis of the sediment corresponding to the instrumental period. All extractable information (regarding “palaeo”-SST, “palaeo”-SSS, ecosystem structure and functioning etc.) will be analyzed with emphasis on decadal-scale variability. D3.1. Air-sea and lateral (Strait) fluxes for forcing the instrumental period simulations. D3.2. High-resolution (decadal-scale) sedimentary information for the instrumental period.

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and assessment Task 4.1. Circulation modelling A version of the Princeton Ocean Model, at a resolution of 1/10° x 1/10° and 24 sigma levels with momentum, heat and freshwater flux boundary conditions will be used. Input: rivers, Gibraltar and Dardanelles Hadley Centre’s SST used for assimilation purposes This model is routinely used for operational purposes by the H.C.M.R. in the framework of the POSEIDON project

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP4: Instrumental period hindcast and assessment Task 4.2. Periods of interest within the instrumental period. Identification of periods of special interest within the instrumental period. Use of forcing fields from WP3 Additional use of proxies through cooperation / links with MedClivar Task 4.3. Ecosystem modelling for simulation of the selected periods of interest. The ERSEM Ecosystem model will be run for 1-2 years within the selected periods D4.1. Circulation and thermohaline functioning of the Mediterranean for the instrumental period. D4.2. Selected periods for ecosystem simulations. D4.3. Ecosystem simulations of the selected periods and comparison to the sedimentary records.

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts Task 5.1. Selection of periods of interest out of the instrumental period. select periods of special interest within the Holocene that would be worth and it would be possible to attempt to simulate to define numerical experiments allowing the investigation of the thermohaline and ecosystem dynamics to use the latter in an effort to approximate the climatic conditions leading to the observed sediment variability (for example, sapropel formation).

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP5: Paleoceanographic hindcasts Task 5.2. Simulation experiments Attempt to simulate the periods selected by task 5.1 Experiments plagued by uncertainty regarding the meteorological forcing and boundary conditions (Strait exchanges) Approach will use the Bigg et al., 1994 and Myers et al methodology as a starting basis New developments (like the AGCM reproduced climate 6000 BP by Vettoretti et al., 1998) will be incorporated. Special attention will be given to decadal-scale variability D5.1. Report of the workshop on climatic conditions and related forcing for the selected periods outside the instrumental record D5.2. Report on the simulation experiments

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos WP6: Forecasts Task 6.1. Collection of direct atmospheric forcing information for various selected climatic scenaria. Momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes from the NOAA/GFDL CM2.0/CM2.1 model runs will be interpolated to 1/10° x 1/10° to force the Med circulation model Task 6.2. Estimation of volume, heat, salt and buoyancy exchange at the Straits for various selected climatic scenaria. Estimation of exchanges through the Straits as in task 4.2 Task 6.3. Simulations of circulation and ecosystem functioning Exploit the results of 6.1 and 6.2 to force the circulation model under the IPCC worst case scenario Selected periods will be chosen to run the ERSEM model in order to investigate the ecosystem response D6.1. Air-sea and lateral fluxes under various IPCC scenario. D6.2. Predictions on changing thermohaline and ecosystem functioning under the worst case IPCC scenario for CO2 emissions

Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos TimeTable

(a) Age model of MD core developed by means of ten 14 C-AMS dates (triangles), tuning of the G. bulloides d 18 O record with the ice d 18 O record from the GISP2 core (circles) and tuning with the d 18 O record of the MD core from the Alboran Sea (asterisks). (b) Linear sedimentation rates of MD core for the last 53 kyr that oscillate between 15 and 73 cm·kyr -1. Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos

G. bulloides oxygen isotopic records from (a) MD (Alboran Sea) and (b) MD cores for the last 12 kyr. (c) Sedimentation rates along MD sediment core calculated linearly among calendar years from 14 C accelerator mass spectrometry dates (triangles) and tie points (cross). The mean sedimentation rate of 37 cm kyr -1 is represented by a dashed line. Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean Ecosystem MedEcos