Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences By: Seth Sivak.

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Presentation transcript:

Statistical Analysis of Solar Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences By: Seth Sivak

Why We Study Geomagnetic Storms Blackouts Cell Phone Disruption Global Positioning Satellite Failure Danger to Satellites Danger to Astronauts Possible Danger to Airline Passengers

Questions That Needed Answers Are the maximums definitely at Equinox? Are March and April the maximums of the year? Do Geomagnetic Storms occur randomly? When is the best time to turn on the radar?

Project Overview Madrigal Database (Millstone Hill) Kp and F10.7 cm Solar x-ray Flux Year, MDay, DNum, BHM Data Gaps –F10.7 : 453 missing days (2.38%) –Kp : 2 3-Hour missing elements (.00132%)

Broad View (52 Years) 11 Year Cycle for F10.7 X- Ray Flux Double Peaked Kp Cycle Downslide Peak Always Higher Correlation Between F10.7 and Kp

Year Breakdown Kp > 6 Maximum in September Broad Peak in March and April Minimum during December and January Clear double peak on Equinox

Year Breakdown Kp > 8 Maximum in September Peak in July Double Peak at Equinox Peak in March and April Minimum in December and January

Vernal Equinox All Peaks After Equinox Peak For Kp > 6 is April 4th Peak For Kp > 7 & Kp > 8 is April 1st High Peaks Follow in May

Autumnal Equinox Peak on Equinox Sept. 22nd High for Kp > 6 and Kp > 7 Sept. 4th High for Kp > 7 and Kp > 8

July Maximum July 15th-17th For all Kp Kp > 8 Almost Equal to Equinox Has not been explained Bastille Day Event (July 14th-16th 2000) Other Dates: –July 8, 1958 –July 15, 17, 1959 –July 16, 1960 –July 13, 14, 1961 –July 6, 1974 –July 13, 14, 1982 –July 13, 1991

Probability Kp > 6 Probability calculations and why they are important Histogram maximum with high F10.7 found in March Probability maximums found in February, March, May, June, July, August, and September

Probability Kp > 7 F10.7 > 285 maximums are found in August and September F10.7 > 260 maximums are found in March, June, July, September and October F10.7 > 235 maximums are found in March, June, July and September

Probability Kp > 8 F10.7 > 285 maximums found in September F10.7 > 260 maximums found in March, June, July, September and October F10.7 > 235 maximums found in March, June, July and September F10.7 > 210 maximums found in July

Time Series and Monthly Profiles Maximum in Summer Months Minimum in Winter Months Double Peak on Equinox Probability of storms increase with higher solar flux

BHM Results Peaks During Night Hours Minimum at 9 UT for all Kp levels Regular Kp > 6 and Kp > 7 Random Kp > 8 Some Physical Pattern Occurs

Conclusions Peak in September Peak in March Peak in July Peak During 18:00 UT - 3:00 UT (6 pm - 3 am) Probability for Large Storms With High F10.7 Final Overview of All Models and Data

Future Plans Working till June 21st More research into the July Maximum (DST and Kp 1932) Writing Paper and submitting it to the Journal of Undergraduate Research Web Site : (under construction)