100 years of living science Andy Purvis Ecology & Evolution section Division of Biology Phylogeny and biodiversity in a changing world 1 101

Entangled banks and the Tree of Life

DNA barcoding

Lahaye et al PNAS 105:

Null hypothesis: single species Tree should match a single coalescent process Gives expectation for waiting times Statistical approach to delimiting species Pons et al Systematic Biology 55:

Statistical approach to delimiting species Alternate hypothesis: genetic clusters separated by longer branches Coalescent within species, Yule process among species Optimise switch point and tune parameters Test for significance Between-species branchingWithin Pons et al Systematic Biology 55:

Thorough sampling from Australian salt lakes 468 individuals 48 (46 to 52) genetic clusters Coherent geographic ranges Coherent morphology Species delimitation: Australian tiger beetles Pons et al Systematic Biology 55:

Bird phylogenies show density-dependence Phylloscopus and Seicercus My before present Lineage no. (log scale) Phillimore & Price 2008 PLoS Biology 6:

A species-level phylogeny of mammals Bininda-Emonds et al Nature 446:

All mammals Placentals Marsupials K-T boundary P E O M P Bininda-Emonds et al Nature 446: No diversification in response to K-T event

Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens? The most comprehensive phylogeny of beetles (1900 tips, ~ 80% of families represented) Hunt et al Science 318:

K-T Hunt et al Science 318: Beetles have not diversified very rapidly They are older than angiosperms Hundreds of lineages made it through K-T And they have kept on diversifying Did beetles get big & strong by eating their greens?

Global pattern of species-richness Mammalian species per 100km x 100km grid cell Lat. gradient Birds: Orme et al Nature 436: Mammals & Amphibians: Grenyer et al Nature 444: 93-96

‘Old’ vs ‘young’ diversity Red = old diversity; blue = young diversity ‘Hotspots’ of history aren’t always the hotspots of richness Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNAS Plants: Forest, Grenyer et al Nature 445:

Disparity: variance in log(body mass) Hotspots of character diversity are not always in same place either Mammals: Davies et al. in press PNAS Plants: Forest, Grenyer et al Nature 445:

Measuring extinction risk - the IUCN Red List EW EX!!! CR EN VU LR cd LR nt LR lc DD? Mace & Lande 1991 Cons. Biol.

Extinction risk is not random: mammals Extinction risk shows both phylogenetic and geographic pattern - it is not random Patterns differ among major groups too mean

Small and large mammals have different rules PredictorSmall (<3kg)Large (>3kg) Geog. range size-14.03***-3.90*** Latitude5.49*** Human density-2.10* Human density *** Ext. threat index3.71***2.99** Neonate size2.09* Litters/year-2.04* Pop. density-2.27** Cardillo et al Science 309:

Model biotic decline as function of human actions Use spatial variation in drivers in lieu of a time series Drivers: % urban or cropland Human population density Plot marginal effect of drivers of threat blue=low, purple=hot controls for biology differences Davies et al. in press PNAS Logit(Land conversion) Log(Human density)

The goal - predictions under relevant scenarios Adapting Mosaic Order from Strength Davies et al. in press PNAS

de Mazancourt et al Ecol. Letts 11: Phenotypic trait value Number of generationsNumber of generationsNumber of generations Number of generations a – species #11 b – species #11 a – species #2 b – species #2c Diversity, global change, and evolutionary rates

GenesIndividualsPopulationsSpeciesInteractions i ii iii iv v vi ABCDEFABCDEF GCGC GTAC CTAG A B C D E F Local populations Global biodiversity Biological networks GenBank TangledBank?

Interactomics

Integrated biodiversity analysis

Entangled banks and the Tree of Life