DECISION TREE Project Risk Management: A combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach Dr.Prasanta Kumar Dey 大家好，我今天要報告的是 有關決策樹的內容，我會先簡單介紹一下決策樹的概念，接著介紹一篇應用決策樹分析在專案上的paper

CONTENT What is the decision tree? The example of decision tree The advantage of decision tree The application of decision tree 這是今天報告的大綱，首先我會先簡單介紹decision tree的概念，並且說明它的優缺點跟所面臨的挑戰，接著便會藉由一篇 paper 來說明decision tree的應用，這篇主要是應用AHP與DTA的概念來做整個專案的風險管理。

WHAT IS THE DECISION TREE? Decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like graph or model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. Decision tree is commonly used in operations research, specifically in decision analysis, to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal. Another use of decision trees is as a descriptive means for calculating conditional probabilities. 首先，我先介紹什麼決策樹，決策樹是一種支援決策的工具，利用像樹狀的圖或model來描述決策跟可能的後果，包含事件的後果，資源跟成本與效能。 決策樹也常被用在作業研究、特別是決策分析去幫助識別決策來達到目標。

THE EXAMPLE OF DECISION TREE

在這張圖中，可以看到

THE ADVANTAGE OF DECISION TREE Are simple to understand and interpret.  Have value even with little hard data.  Use a white box model.  Can be combined with other decision techniques.  決策樹易於理解和實現. 人們在通過解釋後都有能力去理解決策樹所表達的意義。 對於決策樹，數據的準備往往是簡單或者是不必要的 . 其他的技術往往要求先把數據一般化，比如去掉多餘的或者空白的屬性。 能夠同時處理數據型和常規型屬性。 其他的技術往往要求數據屬性的單一。 是一個白盒模型如果給定一個觀察的模型，那麼根據所產生的決策樹很容易推出相應的邏輯表達式。 易於通過靜態測試來對模型進行評測。 表示有可能測量該模型的可信度。 在相對短的時間內能夠對大型數據源做出可行且效果良好的結果。

Project Risk Management: A combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree Approach Dr.Prasanta Kumar Dey 接著我來介紹 一篇有關當導入專案時的風險管理的例子，主要是使用了AHP跟DTA的概念來描述整個都風險管理

CONVENTIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT MODEL

PROPOSED PROJECT MODEL

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS Risk identification Risk analysis Risk response

RISK MANAGEMENT FLOW

METHODOLOGY Identifying the work packages for risk analysis. Identifying the factors that affect the time, cost, and quality achievement of a specific work package. Analysis the effect and determining severity of failure Driving various alternatives responses for mitigating the effect of risk factors. Estimating cost for each alternative Determining the probability and severity of failure of a specific work package Forming a decision tree. Deriving expected monetary value or the cost of risk response in this case. Selecting the best option statistical analysis. severity of failure: 風險發生後的嚴重程度，例如說，可能會造成成本多花了多少，時程可能延誤了多久之類的。 接著 找出一種可以選擇的回應措施來減輕risk factor的後果 接著 又去計算出 可能每個回應措施需要花多少的成本 決定每個工作項目發生失誤的 可能性且嚴重性 來去建構decision tree 接著

IDENTIFICATION OF WORK PACKAGES Riving crossing Pipeline laying Stations construction Telecommunication and SCADA system

WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE

AHP MODEL FOR DETERMINING RISKING OF PROJECT

IDENTIFICATION OF RISK FACTORS Technical Risk scope change technology selections implementation methodology selection Equipment risk materials risk Engineering and design change Acts of God normal natural calamities abnormal natural calamities

Financial, Economical and Political Risk inflation risk fund risk changes of local law changes in government policy improper estimation Organization Risk capability risk of owner’s project group contractors failure vendor’s failure consultant’s failure

Statutory Clearance Risk environmental clearance land acquisition clearance from chief controller of explosives other clearance from government authorities

LIKELIHOOD OF RISK IN A PROJECT

PROBABILITY AND SEVERITY OF RISK FACTORS

DECISION ALTERNATIVES do nothing carrying out detailed survey using superior technology engaging an expert project team taking all responses

THE COST DATA FOR EACH PACKAGE AGAINST VARIOUS RESPONSES

DECISION TREE FOR PIPELINE LAYING WORK PACKAGE

DECISION TREE FOR RIVER CROSSING WORK PACKAGE

DECISION TREE FOR STATION CONSTRUCTION WORK PACKAGE

DECISION TREE FOR TELECOMMUNICATION AND CATHODIC PROTECTION WORK PACKAGE

THE EMV FOR “ PIPELINE LAYING PROJECT”

THE EMV FOR” PIPELINE LAYING ACROSS RIVER”

THE EMV FOR ” STATION CONSTRUCTION”

THE EMV FOR “TELECOMMUNTION AND SCADA SYSTEM

THE DECISION EMERGE

RISK RESPONSES To avoid To reduce To transfer To absorb

CONCLUSION Risk management using a combined AHP and DTA provides an effective means for managing a complex project efficiently. Risk management makes an effect to quantify risk by modeling its probability and severity in line with the perceptions of experienced project executives subjectivity.

REFERENCE http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree http://www.mindtools.com/dectree.html http://zh.wikipedia.org/zh- hk/%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E6%A0%91 以上是我的參考文獻