NSF Hurricane Research National Science Foundation Pamela Stephens Geosciences Directorate

NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research Geosciences (GEO) – Study the hurricane as a phenomenon from formation to dissipation. Conduct research on the prediction of hurricane behavior/evolution and on the impacts of hurricanes on the built and natural environments. Current award areas include : seasonal prediction relation to climate change cyclogenesis intensity changes sediment transport air-sea fluxes

Internal Vortex Dynamics  In collaboration with NOAA’s IFEX, NSF sponsored the RAINEX field campaign in Early results indicate that the “moat” region between the original and replacement eyewalls becomes dynamically similar to the eye, and that targeting observations in this area may lead to improvements in forecasting hurricane intensity.

NCAR Hurricane Modeling Priorities No delay of intensification with EnKF IC  Advanced computation of initial conditions (IC)  Ensemble Kalman Filter  4D-VAR  Grid-spacing of 1 km in real time  Ocean and wave coupling  Simulation of fine-scale dynamics at landfall Imbalance with GFDL IC lasts 2 days Dean 2007 GFDL IC Numerical Weather Prediction

NWP and New Observation Capability  The COSMIC satellites were launched on April 14 th, 2006 and have provided nearly 1 million atmospheric occultation measurements. Early results show that increasing thermodynamic data in data-sparse regions may have an effect on model performance in relation to forecasting tropical cyclogenesis and storm tracks.

System Concept Balloon Based Dropsondes Cost-effective dropsonde observations of wind, temperature, and humidity to fill critical gaps in coverage over oceanic and remote artic and continental regions over days to weeks.

THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008  August-September 2008  Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution  Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in: –tropical cyclone formation –intensification –Motion/track –decay and/or ET  North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in –tropical and midlatitude predictability –tropical cyclones, »ET –intense extratropical cyclogenesis  Navy interest in Tropical cyclone formation, intensification, and structure change (TCS-08)

Example supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa THORPEX-PARC

Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone- midlatitude interface region Midlatitude impact region THORPEX-PARC Downstream impacts may be forced by: Advection of vorticity by the divergent wind associated with remaining deep convection in the tropical cyclone core region Diabatic Rossby wave generation due to latent-heat release in an area of strong warm frontogenesis in the tropical cyclone midlatitude interface region Import of energy into the midlatitudes via interaction between the tropical cyclone outflow and the midlatitude jet in the midlatitude impact region.

Climate Research Priorities  There has been much discussion recently about the trend in hurricane intensity in a warming climate. With questions about the reliability of past hurricane records, NSF-sponsored researchers along with NCDC created a homogeneous global record of hurricane intensity through use of existing satellite data.

NSF Directorate Roles in Hurricane Research Social, Behavioral & Economic Studies (SBE) – Research focuses on the four stages of disaster management: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Engineering (ENG) – Provide research into hazard response and mitigation, and how hurricanes affect infrastructure - including buildings, levees and electrical and communication systems. New Solicitation from SBE, ENG, and NOAA Communicating Hurricane Information …..