? Quo vadis ? world ? economy Alex IzurietaUN / DESA IDEAs 10 th Anniversary Conference.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Center for Emerging Market Enterprises

Advertisements

Revising Policy Assumptions in the Wake of The Great Recession Sherle R. Schwenninger October 26, 2010.

1 Global Economic Crisis: What Can Small Open Economies Do? Asad Alam The World Bank AIPRG Conference, Yerevan July 7, 2009.

African Union Commission Economic Report on Africa 2011 Economic Report on Africa 2011 Governing development in Africa – the role of the state in economic.

Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics - The Principal Global Indicators - Werner Bier, Per Nymand-Andersen European Central Bank.

Dimitri B. Papadimitriou GLOBAL IMBALANCES AFTER THE ECONOMIC CRISIS Levy Economics Institute International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs) Conference.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

GLOBAL DEMAND FOR CREDIT and how to address it using EXPORT CREDIT INSURANCE Presented 12 November 2014 by Mabel Luen Meridian Finance Group.

The European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Rebalancing in a low growth environment Prof. Dr. Júlia Király October 30th, 2012 PhD of economics, honorary professor, deputy governor of the Magyar Nemzeti.

OVERVIEW OF RECENT ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENTS IN AFRICA Adam ElHiraika, Director, Macroeconomic Policy Division (MPD), UNECA.

Recent Developments in the Region and Macedonia Opening of the NBRM-WB PIC Alexander Tieman 16 December, 2010.

Quarterly revision of the macroeconomic projections Governor Dimitar Bogov August, 2012.

WESP Update per Mid-2012 Darkening skies over the world economy New York, 7 June 2012 WESP Update per Mid-2012 Darkening skies over the world economy New.

TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, New York 14 October 2013 Adjusting.

MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC GECO6400 ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES COURSE REVISION.

Rethinking Alternative Growth Paradigms  Mah-Hui LIM  South Centre Conference on The South in the Global Economic Crisis, Geneva  January 31,

The Emerging market economies and the Great Recession Ahmad Seyf Regent’s University London 26 March 2015 University of Cambridge.

Macedonia and the Euro-zone Debt Crisis (Small and Open – Hostages of Uncertain prospects?) Ana Mitreska National bank of the Republic of Macedonia Athens.

Turkish Economy in 2010 and Beyond Murat Ucer Global Source Partners All information copyright of GlobalSource and/or Murat Ucer. All rights reserved.

Standing Committee on Finance Sector Analysis 02 July 2014 Esther Mohube 1.

International linkages and policy coordination Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance (CERF)Alphametrics Ltd. The Cambridge Alphametrics Model LINK.

Global economic prospects Jan Friederich, Senior Economist December 2005.

Global Economic Outlook The Great Recession and Recovery Stephan S. Thurman, PhD Bureau for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs for Wichita State University,

1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.

Justin Yifu Lin Senior Vice President and Chief Economist The World Bank 1 Toronto, November 23, 2010.

1 Regional Economic Outlook Caucasus and Central Asia Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary Fund May 2009.

1 UNCTAD’s RESEARCH ON GLOBAL MACROECONOMICS Chronicle of a crisis foretold? Geneva, Palais des Nations, October 9, 2012 Courses for Diplomats.

Macroeconomic Environment and Policies After Crisis In Armenia Ministry of Finance Deputy Minister Vardan Aramyan October 6, 2011.

Freddy Van den Spiegel Chief Economist Economic outlook. Are we getting out of the mess? Brussels, February

The Global and Regional Outlook Olaf Unteroberdoerster Resident Representative, Hong Kong SAR, International Monetary Fund Task Force on Economic Challenges’

Marek Dabrowski Prospects of Economic Recovery: Potential Traps and Uncertainties Presentation for the International Conference on “The New Reform Agenda.

LINK GEO & United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects Update May 2009 Rob Vos United Nations

Niagara Falls, October 2009 WORLD AGRICULTURAL SITUATION Niagara Falls, October 2009.

NS3040 Winter Term 2015 Latin American Challenges.

Managing the Growth Shock Warwick J. McKibbin Director, ANU Research School of Economics Presentation to the 2011 Economic & Social Outlook Conference,

NS4053 Winter Term 2014 Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution.

What Might the Next Emerging- Market Financial Crisis Look Like? Morris Goldstein Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow Institute for International Economics.

1 Global Financial Crisis and Central Asia Ana Lucía Coronel IMF Mission Chief for Kazakhstan Middle East and Central Asia Department International Monetary.

New World, New World Bank Group Presentation to Fiduciary Forum On Post Crisis Direction and Reforms March 01, 2010.

Eesti Pank Bank of Estonia Andres Sutt Estonian Economy - on the course for soft landing? October 25, 2007.

Financing for Development: A Progress Report on the Implementation of the Monterrey Consensus Meeting of the Committee of Experts of the 3rd Joint Annual.

Economic and Social Update November 2007 William E. Wallace, Lead Economist World Bank, Indonesia November 2007.

November, CONTENTS  Macroeconomic projections for the period Key exogenous assumptions for the projections Baseline macroeconomic scenario.

The shift and the shocks: prospects for the world economy Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Oxonia 15 th February.

Bangladesh Economy: Achievements and Challenges

Risks of New Global Downturn: Impact on Asia and Response  Lim Mah Hui (Michael)  State of the Global Economy, and Reflections on Recent Multilateral.

Report on the crisis: a scenario analysis Notes on the distribution of income, growth and employment A. Berrini, Economist.

Maria Elena Valenzuela ILO ECLAC/ILO Bulletin Labour market and social protection policies to confront the crisis.

Recovery from the Global Crisis: Implications for SADC and Development Finance Keith Jefferis May 2010.

Macroeconomic situation. The economic downturn has been suspended Gross Domestic Product Seasonally adjusted data, 4th q of 2005 = Exports and Domestic.

Prospects for Wisconsin in the Economic Recovery Wisconsin Bankers Association January 14, 2010 Dean Michael M. Knetter Wisconsin School of Business UW-Madison.

Global economic forecast November 1st The economy has started to recover, but growth is heavily driven by short-term factors, such as a stabilisation.

Global economic forecast November 1st The housing market has stabilised recently but a sustained recovery is unlikely until 2011 Factors putting.

New Growth Model John Evans, TUAC. 2 Summary Purpose of the TUAC/ETUI/ITUC task force Summary of the policy approach Priorities: what is economic growth.

Euro area policy options to combat the debt crisis Christian Dreger, DIW Berlin.

PEET STRYDOM COLLOQUIUM EMERGING MARKETS, GROWTH RESILIENCE OR HITTING A LOW GROWTH TRAP?

LINK Global Economic Outlook

Baltic economic outlook

Global Economic Crisis: What Can Small Open Economies Do?

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and New College, Oxford University

Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Global Setting

Overview of recent economic and social conditions in Africa

Macedonia and the Euro-zone Debt Crisis

Russian Economic Report No. 24

NS4540 Winter Term 2016 Latin American Challenges

NS4053 Spring Term 2017 Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution

Global Economic Crisis: What Can Small Open Economies Do?

NS4540 Winter Term 2019 Latin American Challenges

NS4540 Winter Term 2016 Latin America: Recovery 2016

Presentation transcript:

? Quo vadis ? world ? economy Alex IzurietaUN / DESA IDEAs 10 th Anniversary Conference

Problems persists after the great recession Uneven global income distribution, overborrowing and underconsumption Private sector balance sheet stress Unfettered financial institutions Pressure on fiscal budgets (crowding out or baling out?) Inadequate aggregate demand Pressure on natural resources and the environment

A muddling through option Sluggish growth in developed economies (financial fragility, deleveraging, impotent monetary policy, un-welcomed fiscal policy) Major emerging economies in a moderating pace, vulnerable to international trade and finance, not yet fully regionalized Other developing countries pending on an export recovery (of commodities)

Muddling through : a technical growth scenario

Muddling through : convergence slow and partial

Muddling through : employment: problem for all

Muddling through : imbalances take on again

The muddling through option will not likely stand Vulnerable and fragile Unsatisfactory outcomes call for some kind of action The louder voice in the developed world calls for fiscal austerity and hopes of export recovery The developing world between perplexity and hope of decoupling

A fiscal austerity scenario: weaker demand & protracted

A fiscal austerity scenario: debt not notably reduced

A fiscal austerity scenario: employment far worse

A fiscal austerity scenario: shifting external imbalances

A coordinated employment growth scenario Stronger stimuli, targeted to jobs, to greener technologies, and to private investment Internationally coordinated to avert speculative attacks and protectionist responses, aimed at correcting imbalances Effective debt-work out initiatives Development oriented (infrastructure, know how, market access, etc.)

The employment growth scenario growth delivers

The employment growth scenario employment catches up faster

The employment growth scenario external imbalances improve

The employment growth scenario fiscal balances improve

Conclusion: what lies ahead for the next 10 years? At the trough of the recent recession, attention to policy action and international coordination grew, winning the policy debate But stimuli were inadequate A sluggish recovery is changing the ground, likely bringing back the world economy to a new recession Genuine alternatives are feasible, but these must persuade, hopefully before a deeper crisis