HYPE model simulations for non- stationary conditions in European medium sized catchments Göran Lindström & Chantal Donnelly, SMHI, Sweden IAHS, , Göteborg, Sweden. Hw15 - Testing simulation and forecasting models in non-stationary conditions After the Gudrun storm January 2005 Photo: H.Alexandesson
Outline Objectives Simulate non-stationary conditions, for this workshop. Evaluate effects of the Gudrun storm in Modeled basins Garonne (France, increase in temperature, decrease in discharge) Durance (France, increase in temperature, decrease of glacier) Lissbro (Sweden, forest loss due to Gudrun storm)
HYPE model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment Simulates daily fluxes and turn-over of water, Nitrogen & Phosphorus Integrated soil- and groundwater, substances follow water flow paths Developed for large-scale applications Routing in rivers & lakes (incl. regulation) Parameters are linked to soil type or land-use, and calibrated Each combination of soil type and land-use is modeled separately First version was developed in , and continuously developed Potential evaporation by air temperature with seasonally varying factor
Soil typesLand useSLC+ Soil/Land Use classes (SLC) Most parameters coupled to soil or land-use
HYPE in the world
Durance and Garonne – subbasins -Median size 215 km 2 -Used for hindcasting, operational forecasting and future climate predictions, Q, Nitrogen and Phosphorous Taken from the E-HYPE pan-European application of the HYPE model For Durance and Garonne: Local model taken from E-HYPE (subbasin delineation, landuse, soil-type, lakes, glaciers, irrigation etc) Used the local forcing data (but with height adjustment to height of each subbasin in catchment for temperature) Calibrated to given Q data by adjusting ’super-parameters’ (also Precip correction where required)
Trends over data period: Observed Trends: Simulated vs Observed Trends: Modeled decrease slightly too weak
Durance Catchment area: 2170 km² P mean T mean Q mean NSERE (%)
Garonne Catchment area: 9980 km² HYPE underestimated the decrease in discharge Temperature increase not the only cause of decreasing discharge? Temperature increased by ~1.2 ºC (whole period) Precipitation decreased by ~8% (whole period) Data uncertainties? Regulation, irrigation? P mean T mean Q mean NSERE (%)
Does glacial melt in the Durance catchment explain non-stationarity? Glacier = 8 % of areaGlacier = 1 % of area
S-HYPE model for Sweden For support to implementation of EU Water Framework Directive, forecasting etc. ~ subbasins, ~15km2 subbasin resolution Cal/Eval at 400 stations Interpolation Runoff and discharge
Gudrun storm, January 2005 About 70 M m3 of trees were blown down. 18 people died (in Sweden) Three worst storms in Sweden: 1902, 1969 and 2005 In a region affected by a summer flood in 2004 Worries about increased flood risk after loss of forest Also known as Erwin storm
Gudrun storm January 2005 In the worst hit areas ~8 % of trees were blown down. Max wind speed (m/s) Loss of forest (m3/ha) Lissbro
Lissbro 97 km2, 81% forested, 1 % lakes 2004 summer flood The 10 years before Gudrun
Previous HBV study of clearfelling Brandt et al. (1988), small-scale experiments, central Sweden Discharge: mm/yea r
Lissbro, Reference (no change in model) 4 key parameters adjusted to Lissbro data
Lissbro, Simulated clearfelling 8% of the forest converted to clearfelling Change in SLC classes
Lissbro, Decreased PotEvap Forest PET ~15% higher than open areas (8% forest loss) Change in PET parameter
Conclusions Trends in discharge were fairly well captured by the HYPE model for the two French basins (but modeled discharge decrease was too weak in Garonne). Glacier development had negligible effect in Durance. The effects of the Gudrun storm on discharge in Lissbro were very small (within the uncertainty in the model calibration period).