Estimating Water Demands for Irrigation Districts on the Lower Colorado River David Kracman University of Texas at Austin December 7, 2000
Colorado River Basin Albers Conical Equal Area Projection
The Highland Lakes
Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis Lake Buchanan/Buchanan Dam Lake Travis/Mansfield Dam
Rice-Growing Irrigation Districts 500,000 acre-ft diverted for rice irrigation each year
Organization of Presentation Definition of Study Area Description of Water Demand Regression GIS Applications and Data Acquisition Preliminary Regression Results Conclusions Future Work Acknowledgments
Definition of Study Area All shapefiles projected to Albers Conic Equal Area Approximate irrigation district boundaries from LCRA
Counties in Study Area
Water Demand Regression Developed by Dr. Quentin Martin, LCRA
Delay Factor Variable t i = day of first diversion in year i TE = earliest diversion of any year TL = latest first diversion of any year
Gross Lake Evaporation Closely related to pan evaporation More data available than pan evap Texas Water Development Board
Rainfall 4 National Weather Service stations near study area Used data from nearest station to fill data gaps
Total Acreage Rice Acreage Data available for first and second crops Planted acreage a function of economic, weather, other factors
Water Demand Dependant variable in regression Measured in acre-ft Garwood Irrigation Pump
GIS Applications Gross Lake Evaporation Data
GIS Applications National Weather Service Station Locations
Regression Design
Regression Analysis SPSS Statistical Package
Regression Results R 2 improved from 0.49 to Std Errors of coefficients improved from and to and respectively
Conclusions GIS can aid in development of regression for predicting water use in rice-growing irrigation districts These regressions have potential to improve existing regressions, and may be incorporated into optimization models
Future Work Develop regressions for other irrigation districts, for all relevant months Incorporate results into optimization model Continue to fill data gaps
Questions? (My niece, Molly)