UNICREDITO ITALIANO GROUP Andrea Moneta – Deputy CEO & CFO UBS Warburg 2003 Global Financial Services Conference New York - April, 28 th 2003.

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Presentation transcript:

UNICREDITO ITALIANO GROUP Andrea Moneta – Deputy CEO & CFO UBS Warburg 2003 Global Financial Services Conference New York - April, 28 th 2003

2 AGENDA 2002 Group Highlights “The 2003 opportunity”: managing organic growth through 3 segment banks 2003 Outlook

3 Confirmed high profitability (ROE at 17.2%) even in a tougher than expected environment Diversification of revenue sources enabled to keep revenues stable vs (-0.2%) S3 one-off costs partially counterbalanced by strict cost-control policies. Efficiency still at excellence levels (Cost/Income at 54.3%) Strengthened Group financial position: improved coverage ratios and increased Core Tier I ratio (from 6.06% in 2001 to 7.10% in 2002) 2002 KEY HIGHLIGHTS

4 53.7% excl. S3 one- off costs DESPITE WORSE THAN EXPECTED ECONOMIC SCENARIO AND INTERNAL RESTRUCTURING UCI CONFIRMS IN 2002 ITS REVENUE GENERATION AND COST CONTROL CAPABILITY … TOTAL REVENUES (Euro mln) ,122 10, % 3Q024Q02 Quarterly evolution 2,408 2, ,353 5, % 3Q024Q02 Quarterly evolution 1,372 1, % COST/INCOME RATIO % OPERATING EXPENSES (Euro mln) % At unchanged FX (1) +1.6% +4.2% +1.9% +4.6% (1) Calculated on the FX of all the currencies of New Europe countries where UCI is present with fully consolidated banks.

5 OPERATING INCOME (Euro mln) ,769 4, % 3Q024Q02 Quarterly evolution 1,036 1, % ,767 1, % 3Q024Q02 Quarterly evolution ROE (1) % NET INCOME (Euro mln) restated 18.4 … LEADING TO A SATISFYING NET INCOME GROWTH (+1.9% ON 2001) AND GOOD PROFITABILITY LEVELS (ROE AT 17.2% IN 2002) (1) Calculated on end of period net equity excluding profit for the period % At unchanged FX -1.3% +1.8% -1.6% -21.5%

6 POSITIVE VALUE CREATION AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF CAPITAL BASE ,346 Italian banking Wholesale banking New Initiatives CAPITAL ABSORPTION 1, VALUE CREATION 8,979Group total (3) 654 NOPAT 1, ,641 RARORAC % 16.1 n.m (1) Minimum regulatory capital, market risks, credit risks and operational risks (2) The Cost of Equity is related to the capital employed (Net equity for the Group and allocated capital for the business units) (3) Balance due to Corporate Center and Other companies, respectively -311 for NOPAT, 784 for Capital absorption and -448 for Value Creation MARGINAL RARORAC % 16.4 n.m (Euro mln) NOPAT (a) Risk taken (1) (b) Shareholder’s value added (c) =(a)-COE (2) Value added per unit of risk taken (c)/(b) From 6.06% (Dec 01) to 7.10% (Dec 02) CORE TIER 1 RATIO (considering all RWA) From 10.96% (Dec 01) to 11.64% (Dec 02) TOTAL CAPITAL RATIO (considering all RWA) From Euro bn (Dec 01) to Euro bn (Dec 02), -3.7% TOTAL RWA 936 New Europe banking

7 AGENDA 2002 Group Highlights “The 2003 opportunity”: managing organic growth through 3 segment banks 2003 Outlook

8 OUR THREE SEGMENT BANKS REPRESENT THE PILLARS OF UCI’S NEW ORGANISATION New Europe Banks New Europe division Private & AM division Pioneer Xelion Corporate division UBM BMC (3) Locat (4) Clarima (1) Adalya (2) TradingLab Retail division (1) Consumer Finance (2) Retail mortgages (3) M/l term corporate financing (4) Leasing

9 OUR RETAIL BANK, WITH THE MISSION OF BEING THE “QUALITY BRAND” IN THE MARKET OF FINANCIAL SERVICES FOR FAMILIES AND SMALL BUSINESSES, ACTING AS THE “LARGEST ITALIAN LOCAL BANK” OUR CORPORATE BANK, WITH THE MISSION OF BECOMING THE FIRST BANK FOR ITALIAN MID-CORPORATES THANKS TO A SUPERIOR ABILITY IN THE OFFER OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL RISK- MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS OUR PRIVATE BANK, WITH THE MISSION OF PROTECTING AND INCREASING WEALTH OF PRIVATE CUSTOMERS THEY STARTED THEIR OPERATIONS ON JANUARY 1 st WITH CLEARLY DEFINED MISSIONS

10 UNICREDIT BANCA IS THE SINGLE LARGEST BANK IN ITALY… TOTAL LOANSAround 37 bn Euro CURRENT ACCOUNTSAround 32 bn Euro 6.2 mln CUSTOMERS, of which 3,600 salespeople 2,500 financial consultants 1,300 account managers 4.8 mln MASS MARKET 0.9 mln AFFLUENT 0.5 mln SMALL BUSINESS INDIRECT DEPOSITSAround 97 bn Euro

11... WITH AN IMPORTANT PRESENCE IN THE WEALTHIEST REGIONS, WHERE THE FORMER 7 BANKS WERE TRADITIONALLY ROOTED Italian Provinces Financial wealth (€M) to (35) to (25) 2.000to (43) RETAIL PRIVATE CUSTOMERS FINANCIAL WEALTH UCI BANCA BRANCHES MKT SH. CENTRAL ITALY 5.5% NORTH-EAST 16.2% NORTH-WEST 8.5% SOUTH 4.7% NATIONWIDE9.2% % Of italian GDP UCI Banca Branches # Branches mkt share Lombardia20.4%2514.5% Piemonte8.7% % Veneto 9.1% % Friuli V. G.2.3% % Emilia Romagna8.8% % Total 5 Regions49.3%1, %

12 THE BANKS’ STRATEGIC GOALS AND GUIDELINES HAVE BEEN CLEARLY SET OUT INCREASE in MARKET SHARES Maintain COST/INCOME at EXCELLENCE LEVELS Optimisation of Capital Allocation Focus on SERVICE QUALITY and CUSTOMER SATISFACTION Maintain excellence levels in the operating performance Efficient allocation and motivation of Human Resources STRATEGIC GOALS STRATEGIC GUIDELINES

13 THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2003 SHOW GOOD COMMERCIAL RESULTS, ALSO THANKS TO THE POSITIVE EFFECTS OF THE MAIN STRATEGIC PROJECTS Good sales in first 3 months of 2003 vs. 4Q, traditionally strong in terms of sales: avg. monthly sales of bancassurance: 496 mln single premiums (+80% vs. 4Q02) and 56 mln recurring premiums (+274% vs. 4Q02) 2,059 avg. monthly IMPRENDO subscriptions by new Small Business clients, +16.2% vs. 4Q02 Customer retention project: monitoring marginal and sleeping customers behaviours to re-activate relationships Increase either in household’s mortgages or in current accounts volumes Good pricing ability, resulting in a resilient spread (789 bp in March) Focus on the 2 riskier customer classes (representing around 5% of the total loans but 29% of the total expected loss), to reduce exposure and drive down cost of risk Lower than expected extraordinary costs for incentivisation to leave MAIN PROJECTS UNDERGOING FIRST 3 MONTHS ACHIEVEMENTS Brand management: strong marketing efforts in order to enhance brand recognition at local and national level

14 UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA’s core active customers: represent around 40% of the total Italian market* on those, UBI has an exposure of 10.2% of their outstanding loans portfolio** UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA CAN ENJOY A HUGE CRITICAL MASS Around 3,500 employees 900 account managers 210 branches articulated in 4 commercial regions Around Euro 40 bn of total loans 50 teams of foreign services consultants Around 92,000 total customers: around 55,000 represent the bank core customers (non financial enterprises with a turnover of at least 1.5 mln Euro) out of these, 40,000 have outstanding loans *UBI estimates **Bank of Italy Credit Bureau (Centrale Rischi)

15 STARTING FROM THE CURRENT PENETRATION OF THE EXISTING CUSTOMERS UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA HAS A BIG GROWTH OPPORTUNITY AT “LOW COST” AND “LOW RISK” THROUGH A REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATED APPROACH UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA WILL INCREASE MARKET SHARES THANKS TO A SELECTIVE GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS AND THE OFFER OF QUALITY SERVICES, WELL AWARE OF THE RISK-REWARD PARADIGM (1) Calculated dividing the number of core active customers of UniCredit Banca d’Impresa for the total customers of the region 10.2% avg. mkt share on core non-financial customers HIGH MKT SHARE (>11%) MEDIUM MKT SHARE (9-11%) LOW MKT SHARE (<9%) LOW COVERAGE (1) (<30%) MEDIUM COVERAGE (1) (30-55%) HIGH COVERAGE (1) (>55%) TRENTINO AA FRIULI VG VENETO EMILIA R TOSCANA PUGLIA SARDEGNA PIEMONTE V. AOSTA MARCHE MOLISE LOMBARDIA UMBRIA (2) CAMPANIA BASILICATA SICILIA LIGURIA LAZIO ABRUZZO CALABRIA UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA WILL INCREASE MARKET SHARES THANKS TO A SELECTIVE GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS AND THE OFFER OF QUALITY SERVICES, WELL AWARE OF THE RISK-REWARD PARADIGM (2) Banca dell’Umbria not included in the calculation (data not available)

16 UNICREDIT BANCA D’IMPRESA WILL LEVERAGE ON INFRA-GROUP AND “CROSS” DIVISION SYNERGIES TO DEVELOP ITS SERVICE MODEL WE IDENTIFIED THREE MAIN AREAS ON WHICH WE WILL FOCUS TO ACHIEVE OUR GOALS: Take advantage of synergies with our investment bank (UBM) to maintain and further develop leadership in corporate derivatives, with increasing focus on quality of service Increase the weight of innovative products (Equity risk hedging, Commodity & Energy risk) vs. traditional ones (Interest rate & Forex hedging) Increase our market shares on foreign payments & collections of our clients through a better coverage of our customer base Sustain the internationalisation process of Italian companies leveraging on: the presence of our banks in New Europe to satisfy our customers’ needs the activity of our foreign branches (New York, London, etc.) Develop a service model to answer the request for corporate finance services of our top clients, starting from: the strong synergies with UBM (investment banking) and Banca Mediocredito (long term and project finance) a team of specialists fully dedicated to 150/200 “leader” companies selected as pilot to better identify and satisfy their needs CORPORATE DERIVATIVES FOREIGN TRANSACTION SERVICES CORPORATE FINANCE

17 SOUND COMMERCIAL RESULTS IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2003 AND NEW PROJECTS WELL ON TRACK Derivatives: around 13% customer base increase, with good increase in volumes and gross margins up 29% vs. same period in 2002 Improved pricing on loans: mark up at 2.69% in March (+ 14 bp vs January and +2 bp vs February) Customers loans in line with end 2002 (-0.3%) despite rationalization of lending portfolio Key clients: new service model to support origination of value added products (corporate finance, derivatives, asset finance etc.) Foreign transactions services: dedicated team to increase mkt share on foreign payments and collections, also through synergies with UCI New Europe network MAIN PROJECTS UNDERGOING FIRST 3 MONTHS ACHIEVEMENTS

18 Around 550 Bankers Around 95,000 customers, around 40,000 families UNICREDIT PRIVATE BANKING IS THE BIGGEST PRIVATE BANK IN ITALY... KEY FIGURES More than 150 branches Market Shares*: 1.8% in AM 2.4% in Mutual Funds 2.5% in Securities in Custody Around Euro 36 bn Direct and Indirect Deposits Assets under ManagementSecurities in Custody LiquidityLoans Breakdown of Total Dir. & Ind. Deposits + Loans 7% 48% 44% 1% * Source (for Total Italian Market): Internal calculations on Assogestioni and BankIT data Note: Management accounts figures ROOM TO INCREASE PENETRATION OF HIGH VALUE-ADDED SERVICES

19 … OPERATING IN AN INTERESTING MARKET, COMPOSED BY FEW INDIVIDUALS CONTROLLING A HUGE PROPORTION OF WEALTH HNWI: liquid assets > Euro 500K; Affluent = € 50K TO € 500K; Mass =< €50K Source: 2000, National Statistics, PwC Analysis Affluent HNWI Mass 21 mln Families € 2,639 bn € 11.2 bn Total Banking assets FamiliesProfits > Euro 500K < Euro 500K WEALTH DISTRIBUTION AND UCI PB PRESENCE IN ITALY Wealth in Italy* by region UCI PB AuM** by region * Weighted Average of income and deposits by region ** UCI PB AuMs by region Source: UCI PB – Strategic Marketing calculations on UCIBANCA – Strategic Marketing data

20 THE BANK WILL LEVERAGE ON ITS STRONG COMPETITIVE POSITION COMPETITORS TYPICAL TARGET CUSTOMER POSITIONING UCI PB COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES LOCAL DOMESTIC PLAYERS NATIONAL DOMESTIC PLAYERS FOREIGN PLAYERS Upper Affluent / Lower Private (500,000 Euro<Total Financial Wealth<1 bn Euro) All categories of Private Clients Upper Private / Large Accounts (Total Financial Wealth>10 bn Euro)  Strong for brand and tradition, but limited (on-shore)  Wider offer of products/ services  Higher quality of service  Superior skills and competencies  Higher focus and better strategy  Wide-spread presence all-across the country  Deeper knowledge/ understanding of customers  Synergies with other Group companies  Consolidated long-term “trust” with the client  Sub-scaled  Large but weak

21 RESULTS IN THE FIRST THREE MONTHS OF 2003 ARE ENCOURAGING, DESPITE THE ADVERSE MARKET SCENARIO Around 400 net acquisitions of clients Around Euro 1.2 bn Total Gross Sales of AM products and Euro 250 mln of structured bonds Total Direct and Indirect Deposits stable on levels despite negative market performance (around –1.7%) Good start of the second “tax-amnesty” for the repatriation of capitals managed in foreign countries, with the acquisition of 281 mandates FIRST 3 MONTHS ACHIEVEMENTS Development of a distinctive offer for highly sophisticated and wealthy customers MAIN PROJECTS UNDERGOING Optimisation of the offer for customers with less than Euro 500K; senior Private Bankers focused on the acquisition of new customers Joint-project with UCI Banca d’Impresa for a combined offer of Corporate and Private services to entrepreneurs

22 AGENDA 2002 Group Highlights “The 2003 opportunity”: managing organic growth through 3 segment banks 2003 Outlook

23 WE HAVE CONSIDERED TWO DIFFERENT MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR 2003 Economic scenario Real GDP growth: Refi ECB (as at ) Mutual Funds Perf. (3) Avg. Loans growth (2) Avg. Deposits growth (2) Avg. Sh. Term Spread (2) BASE SCENARIO (60% likelihood 1 ) ADVERSE SCENARIO (35% likelihood 1 ) Gradual improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals Still weak macroeconomic fundamentals +1.0%+0.2% 2.50% +5.5%+4.2% +5.6%+8.0% 4.29% (-5bp on 2002) +3.7% (on ) -3.0% (on ) (2) Data related to the whole Italian Banking System (1) Balance (5% likelihood) attributed to a more positive scenario (3) Calculated on the whole stock of Mutual Funds in Italy (“perimetro Assogestioni”) 4.18% (-16bp on 2002) 1.75% - in Italy - in Poland +2.1%+1.0%

24 WE ARE ACTIVELY WORKING IN ORDER TO PRESERVE NET INCOME GROWTH EVEN IN THE ADVERSE SCENARIO UCI 2003 BUDGET (Base Scenario) IMPACTS OF THE ADVERSE SCENARIO (pre contingency plan) Net interest Income Moderate increase on 2002: increased market shares in loans and deposits in Italy offsetting slightly lower spreads ~ -100 Euro mln. vs Base Scenario Net Non-interest Income ~ -260 Euro mln. vs Base Scenario Growth related to increased net commissions (due to sales of high value added products, synergies among the segment-banks and growth of foreign- trade services) and income from financial transactions from Corporate Banking Operating Costs Moderate growth mainly due to S3 one-off costs and launch of strategic projects in the 3 segment banks. Tight control on ordinary costs Savings for ~ 60 Euro mln costs directly linked to lower revenues Loan Loss Provisions Overall decreasing; moderate growth on 2002 levels net of extraordinary provisions (i.e. Pekao and alignment of provisioning criteria in the 7 banks) In line with 2002, including 2002 extraordinary provisions

25 Annex

26 Net extraordinary income Net interest income (incl. div.) Net non interest income Total revenues Operating income Net write-down of loans % ch. on FY01 Administrative costs (incl. depr.) Net income Other net provisions* Goodwill depr FY02 5,127 4,972 10,099 5,483 4, , (Euro mln) Minorities Taxes ,317 (*) Including provisions to reserve for general banking risk n.m n.m Q02 1,253 1,219 2,472 1,441 1, % ch. on 3Q02 FY02 CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENT