Calculating the Reproductive Ratio. Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic.

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Presentation transcript:

Calculating the Reproductive Ratio

Reproductive Ratio, R 0 The average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person in the epidemic. For Standing Disease, R 0 is 2 Step No. new infections

Counter Plague 1 st scenario No. on die No. of new infections What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario.

Counter Plague 1 st scenario No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario. R 0 =

Counter Plague 2 nd scenario No. on die No. of new infections What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario.

Counter Plague 2 nd scenario No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected What is the average number of new infections we expect to see for each infected person? Use the probability of each outcome to calculate R 0 for this scenario. R 0 =

Counter Plague No. on die No. of new infections Av. no. new infections expected 1?? 2?? 3?? 4?? 5?? 6?? How could you set up Counter Plague so that R 0 equals: What is the largest value of R 0 you can get in Counter Plague?