William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & The University of Michigan www.frey-demographer.org A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic Landscape.

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The University of Michigan and the Brookings Institution
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Presentation transcript:

William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & The University of Michigan A 30,000-Foot View of the Demographic Landscape

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected 50 Years Population Growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Race: 2000 and % 50.1%

Source: William H. Frey analysis US: Population by Age: 2000 and % 20.7%

Source: William H. Frey analysis New Demographic Regions n Melting Pot America n The New Sunbelt n The Heartland

Source: William H. Frey analysis Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Foreign Born 70% Asian Language at Home 68% Spanish at Home 76% Mixed Marriages 51% Native Born 37% English at Home 34% Share of U.S. in Melting Pot States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000)

Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Magnet Metros, New York 1,079,700 2 Los Angeles 804, ,702 3Miami 414, ,189 4 Chicago 379, ,550 5Dallas 289, ,312 6Houston 263, ,309 7 San Francisco 246, ,877 8 Washington DC 241, ,661

Source: William H. Frey analysis Domestic Migration Magnets, Phoenix477,871 2 Riverside, CA 468,873 3Atlanta353,953 4 Las Vegas 287,192 5Tampa254,739 6Orlando226,649 7Dallas220,579 8 Charlotte, NC 185,647

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, New York -1,643,228 2 Los Angeles -1,120,854 3Chicago-477,254 4 San Francisco New Orleans Detroit-263,322 7Boston-260,176 8 San Jose -224,992

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race Composition of Regions 2007 Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

Source: William H. Frey analysis Melting Pot States: Race Change

Source: William H. Frey analysis New Sunbelt: Race Change

Source: William H. Frey analysis California: All Races Out-Migrate

Source: William H. Frey analysis Growing "New Immigrant" Destinations

Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrant Concentrations in States 15% or more 10-14% 5-9% Less than 5%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Immigrants vs Natives

Hispanic Concentrations Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates Percent of County Population

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Hispanic Gains, Riverside589,769 2 Los Angeles 522,060 3Dallas519,055 4Houston508,448 5Phoenix441,745 6 New York 417,329 7Miami389,168 8Chicago351,410

Source: William H. Frey analysis Fastest Hispanic Growth, Metros with at least 50,000 Hispanics 1 Cape Coral, FL Port St. Lucie, FL Charlotte Fayetteville, AR Raleigh Lakeland, FL 92,4 92,4 7Nashville Indianapolis

Asian Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Asian Gains, New York 315,022 2 Los Angeles 204,641 3 Washington DC 110,148 4 San Francisco 108,736 5 San Jose 98,446 6Chicago95,919 7Dallas85,179 8Riverside84,407

Source: William H. Frey analysis Fastest Asian Growth, Metros with at least 50,000 Asians 1 Las Vegas Phoenix65.3 3Riverside57.4 4Austin56.1 5Orlando55.6 6Atlanta53.0 7Tampa Columbus OH 45.2

Black Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest Black Gains, Atlanta413,199 2Houston150,180 3Dallas144,887 4Miami105,093 5 Washington DC 100,197 6Charlotte84,681 7Orlando69,913 8Baltimore61,509

White Concentrations Percent of County Population Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest White Decliners 1 New York -280,519 2 Los Angeles -229,493 3Miami-142,696 4 San Francisco -130,709 5 New Orleans -127,120 6Pittsburgh-95,713 7 San Jose -82,347 8Philadelphia-76,663

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest White Gainers 1Phoenix322,104 2Atlanta262,890 3Dallas172,284 4Austin138,701 5Charlotte134,483 6Houston130,488 7Raleigh126,761 8 Las Vegas 116,444

Source: William H. Frey analysis

Born in Same State

Source: William H. Frey analysis US Growth by Age

Source: William H. Frey analysis Growth by Age,

Source: William H. Frey analysis State Growth in Child Population*, Under age 18

Source: William H. Frey analysis Growth in H.S. Graduates, to

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Non White Children*, 2015 * Under age 15

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Children with Immigrant Parents % 35% 34% 32% 31% 23%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Children Speaking Other than English*, 2005 Source: William H. Frey analysis * Ages

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent Speaking Spanish, Children and Adults, 2005

Source: William H. Frey analysis English Proficiency for Spanish Speakers, 2005

Source: William H. Frey analysis Hispanic, Asian Children by Generation, 2006 Hispanics Asians

Source: William H. Frey analysis Young Adult Education 2006, 2 Generations HispanicsAsians

Source: William H. Frey analysis US Growth by Age

Source: William H. Frey analysis Age 65 + Growth, , US States 25% & above 20% -24% 10% -19% under 10%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Percent 65+ population for States, % & above 12% -13% 11% -11.9% under 12%

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest 65+ Growth: Large Metros 1 Las Vegas McAllen, TX Colorado Springs Austin62.0 5Raleigh57.4 6Phoenix El Paso Atlanta51.6 9Orlando Houston50.5

Source: William H. Frey analysis Greatest 65+ Decline: Large Metros 1Scranton Pittsburgh Springfield, MA Buffalo Worcester, MA New Haven Providence0.1 8Youngstown-OH0.8 9Toledo1.1 10Cleveland2.5

Source: William H. Frey analysis Fastest Growing “Old-Old” (85+), % Growth 1. Alaska Nevada Arizona New Mexico Florida California Delaware Hawaii Maryland 57.1

Source: William H. Frey analysis 140% & above 100% -139% 70% -99% under 69% Projected Age 65+ Growth , US States

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Age 65+ Growth, FloridaCaliforniaNew York percent growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis Rates of Migration by Age Per 100

Source: William H. Frey analysis Arizona Projections: Aging in Place and Migration percent growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis New York Projections: Aging in Place and Migration Source: William H. Frey analysis percent growth

Source: William H. Frey analysis Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife Boomers vs. Parents at Midlife

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: US

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: California

Source: William H. Frey analysis Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

Source: William H. Frey analysis United States United States Projected Race Compositions, 2025 Under Age % whiteblackIndianAsianHispanic 62 % Age % Age 65+

Source: William H. Frey analysis State Projected Growth, Source: William Frey

Source: William H. Frey analysis Electoral Vote Gains, Electoral Vote Gains, Source: William Frey

Source: William H. Frey analysis Electoral Vote Losses, Electoral Vote Losses, Source: William Frey

Source: William H. Frey analysis Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state victories) Source: William Frey

Source: William H. Frey analysis Red and Blue States, 2008

Source: William H. Frey analysis Projected Blue State Advantage (assuming constant 2008 state victories) RedBlueAdvantage Electoral Votes

Source: William H. Frey analysis Useful Websites Useful Websites