Major Current Trends in Innovation: The OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2014 Dominique Guellec Head, Country Studies and Outlook Division (DSTI/CSO) OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation

OECD STI Outlook: 20-year tradition “What’s new in the field of science, technology and innovation policy? “ International review of key recent trends in STI for the STI policy community and analysts Based on latest STI policy information and indicators OECD Flagship publication 2

More than a book… An infrastructure for knowledge sharing and building Measurement work 3 Country reviews Analytical work by CSTP WP (e.g. TIP/RIHR) OECD Directorates (EDU, STD, CFE) OECD Committees (e.g. CIIE)

The three components of the STI Outlook COUNTRY PROFILES POLICY PROFILES OVERALL STI PERFORMANCE AND POLICY TRENDS

European Union: Benchmarking performance (1) 5 Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (Index median = 100)

European Union: Benchmarking performance (2) 6 Normalised index of performance relative to the median values in the OECD area (Index median = 100)

EU policy mix: self-assessment 7 Most relevant instruments of public funding of business R&D Country self-assessment index (9= high and increasing relevance, to 0= not used)

Technological orientation 8 Revealed technology advantage in selected fields, Index based on PCT patent applications Revealed technology advantage in selected fields,

Selected key messages 9 POLICY PROFILES OVERALL STI PERFORMANCE AND POLICY TRENDS

Innovation in the crisis 10 Annual growth rate of GDP and GERD, constant prices, and projections to 2014 and 2015 Source: OECD Economic Outlook n o 95 Database, May 2014; OECD Main Science and Technology Indicators MSTI database, June 2014.

A changing global R&D landscape 11 GERD, million USD 2005 PPP, and projections to 2024 Source: OECD estimates based on OECD MSTI database, June 2014.

Diverging Europe 12 National R&D spending targets and gap with current levels of GERD intensity, % of GDP, 2014 Source: OECD estimates based on OECD MSTI database, June 2014.

Budgets are levelling off or receding… 13 Public R&D budgets (GBAORD), as % of GDP, 2013 compared to 2011 Source: OECD estimates based on OECD MSTI database, June 2014.

Public research funding: Striving for Excellence

Government funds a large share of publicly performed R&D (USD 400 bn in 2012) Source: OECD Research and Development Database, 2011 (2010: 71% of HERD and 93% of GOVERD in the OECD ) Source: OECD Research and Development Database, 2013 GOVERD HERD 15

Promoting Research Excellence: New Approaches to Funding 16

Scope: – Experts commissioned to investigate models, indicators and impacts – Questionnaire survey completed by 13 countries Key findings: – Most schemes introduced since 2000 – Main rationale: raise quality of research; but also others – Assessments commonly used for several rounds of annual funding – Open disclosure of processes and results in most countries – Similarities in indicators used: 3 rd party income, publications, degree completions; differences in combinations and weighting, reliance on quantitative indicators and peer review, and use of additional indicators – Differences in budget impacts of schemes: while difficult to compare across countries, annual block funding affected ranges from 6% to 75% – Differences in the involvement of HEIs in designing schemes – Few formal evaluations of schemes – evidence suggests positive effects on research outputs and research management – Negative and unintended consequences also highlighted: e.g. narrowing of research focus on publications targeted at certain journals Performance-based funding for public research in tertiary education institutions

Performance-based funding for public research in tertiary education institutions (2010)

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