Can agriculture survive cheap oil? BRIAN CLANCEY

Agriculture since 1961 World Population Up 108% Land in Field Crops up 17% Field Crop Production up 246%

Land in Field Crops (million hectares)

World Field Crop Output (million metric tons)

World Production by Crop Sector (million metric tons)

Per Capita Field Crop Output All crops up 18% since 1961 Oilseeds up 160% Vegetables up 92% Cereal grains up 19%

Uptrend in Productivity (kilograms per human being)

Why The Uptrend? Improved varieties and technology Subsidies in industrial world Access to credit

Africa Less Productive (kilograms per person in Africa)

Americas More Productive (kilograms per person in Americas)

Steady Gains in Asia (kilograms per person in Asia)

Europe Losing Edge (kilograms per person in Europe)

Moisture Issues Plague Oceania (kilograms per person in Oceania)

Human Beings Eat Too Much Average Woman Needs 2000 Calories Average Man Needs 2700 Calories Average Human Eats 19% Too Much

More Food = Fatter People (average daily calories consumed)

Pulses Lag Population Growth World Population Up 108% Pulse Production up 38% Per Capita Production down 34%

Slower Rise in Pulse Output (000 metric tons)

Per Capita Pulse Output Falling (kilograms per human being)

Pulling it Together Field crop output rising faster than population since Markets used price to consume surplus production between 1985 and 2005 Cheap food spurred over-eating

Moderate Price Downtrend Average prices paid to U.S. farmers trended lower between 1975 and 2005 Corn and soybeans trended lower Wheat was relatively flat

U.S. Farm Prices (U.S. dollars per bushel)

Problem Facing Pulses Pulses compete for land based on potential gross returns to farmers Pulses compete for consumer demand based on relative cost to other foods

Simplified View of Effect of Price on Production and Demand Higher Prices Lower Prices

Canada Illustrates Effect Vast majority of crop is exported No incentive to grow one crop over another Prices reflect need to compete for land and for attention of consumers

Canada Special Crop Price Index (2004 weighted average price = 100)

U.S. Beans Another Story Not part of Farm Program Legislated incentive to grow other crops Early uptrend in prices to retain land

U.S. Average Bean Price (U.S. dollars per 100 pounds)

2005 Was Turning Point U.S. biofuel mandates Intense competition for acres Reversal of long term downtrend in prices

U.S. Biofuel Mandates (billion gallons)

More Land Better Yields Needed The world needs another 84 million acres under continuous crop by the year 2016 to meet biofuel needs. The world needs gross field crop output needs to rise almost 7% by

World Acreage Outlook (million hectares)

World Production Outlook (kilograms per human being) Current preferred before biofuel around 848 kilograms

What Does it Mean Field crop prices declined into 2005 Cheap food caused people to over eat Biofuel policies eliminated surpluses Food prices rose in response

What Does it Mean Cheap oil slows biofuel adoption and lowers prices to world’s farmers World will always produce enough food but people want more than they need Underlying firmness through