Best practice for ensuring quality in international statistics - The Principal Global Indicators - Werner Bier, Per Nymand-Andersen European Central Bank Committee for the Coordination of Statistical Activities (CCSA) Conference on quality in international Statistics, Athens, 29 May 2012

2 1 4 Policy needs for International Statistics 2 Statistical challenges Ensuring quality and best practice Concepts and methodology Operational set-up Principle Global Indicators (PGIs) Overview International Statistics

3 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination The financial and sovereign debt crisis has revealed that Interconnectedness and interdependence among open economies play an important role in the size, nature and policy responses of systemic risks Systemic risks depend on the collective behaviour of financial intermediaries, markets, infrastructures and depends on the interaction between the financial system and the real economy 1 Policy needs for International Statistics

4 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination Policy responses remain mainly bound to the national territory (exceptional cases supranational (e.g. ECB)) Multilateral policy responses are crucial for mitigating risks to financial stability and for creating strong, sustainable and balanced growth Multilateral policy responses require enhanced and global comparable economic and financial statistics and indicators 1 Policy needs for International Statistics

5 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination Group of 20 (G20) Leaders' requested a range of statistical indicators to identify large imbalances among economics (Seoul Summit) The main priority actions relate to reduce excessive imbalances and to maintain current account imbalances at sustainable levels For this purpose, a set of comparable statistical indicators is required 1 Policy needs for International Statistics

6 Policy needs for multilateral surveillance and coordination 1 Policy needs for International Statistics Main comparable international indicators: public debt and fiscal deficits private savings rate private debt external imbalance Easy accessibility of official statistics/indicators G20 and Global statistical aggregates (e.g. G20 GDP)

7 Concepts and methodology International statistical standards are available Fundamental Principles and agreed Quality frameworks exist Excellent international and regional networks and governance among national statistical agencies and international organisations are in place Data exchange formats among international and supranational organisations (SDMX) are developed Ensuring quality and best practice 2

8 Operational set-up The key statistical challenges lie in the ability to coordinate among the network of international and national authorities synchronise the various statistical activities converge and apply a common set of statistical concepts, guidance and methodological notes governance assessments – check and balances Ensuring quality and best practice 2

9 Operational set-up Do the statistical authorities agree on the detailed statistical requirements ? Have the international statistical standards been applied ? Is the data flow from national authorities to international organisations synchronised ? Limited (timely) G20 and Global aggregates available (G20 quarterly growth rates) If statisticians do not deliver – the market will Ensuring quality and best practice 2

10 First results to meet G20 demands Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN and the World Bank Focus on the G20 economies plus 5 non-G20 Financial Stability Board (FSB) countries key economic and financial statistics and indicators 3

11 Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3 First results to meet G20 demands

12 First results to meet G20 policy demand External debt /Real GDP Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) 3

13 Statistical challenges The PGIs will be further enhanced to comply with the data transmission standard SDMX support visualisation tools include additional G20 and global aggregates become a supporting tool for G20 policies 4

14 Statistical challenges The Inter-Agency Group therefore continues to work on the (detailed) statistical requirements: Agreement on detailed reporting templates (coverage, frequency, timeliness, adjustments) Tier 1: Core Aggregates; Tier 2: Detailed breakdowns; Tier 3: Specificities of the individual economy Agreement on the data flow among the international organisations, including the related quality management 4

15 Statistical challenges The Inter-Agency Group members aim at applying common reporting templates and implementation plans a pilot project on sector accounts and their integration with e.g. government finance statistics and securities issues statistics synchronising the data sources/flow and quality monitoring (Who does what by when) applying the SDMX concept to the PGIs involving the G20 economies where needed 4

16 Official statistics is called upon to support multilateral surveillance policies in a world of global imbalances and uneven global recovery (G20 policy driven needs) The international and national statistical authorities have the statistical, technical and organisational skills to master this challenge (close cooperation) Pilot exercises are needed to prove effective international cooperation by releasing comparable and timely international statistics The policy needs are there. If the statistical authorities can not deliver, the market will replace them Conclusions 4