Dr. Jack Gwo (His work may be mis-presented by an ugly George)

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Presentation transcript:

Dr. Jack Gwo (His work may be mis-presented by an ugly George)

Uncertainty Analysis of First-Principle Hydrological Models J. P. (Jack) Gwo University of Maryland, Baltimore Co. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Baltimore, MD Phone:

Sources of Uncertainty  Natural Randomness  Data  Model Parameters  Model Physicochemical Processes  Model Predictions

Nested LHS Model Calibration & Uncertainty Analysis Prior PDF (model parameter) Latin-Hypercube Experiment Design (Maximin Distance) WASH123D Ensemble and Bayesian Statistics Converged? P&M Uncertainty Criteria Meet? STOP YES NO Posterior PDF

Example Application Contaminant Transport Through Fractured Rocks (Limestone & Shale)

Parameter Uncertainty

Process Uncertainty Matrix Diffusion Contaminant Transport

Model Prediction Uncertainty Fracture Matrix

Workload Estimate  Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis – 2 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 2 years or a total of $132,000), not including the startup cost of model construction.  Uncertainty Analysis Only – 1 FTE (research associate at $66,000/yr for 1 year).