>Aging and Demographic Change in Europe: Divergent Trends in Western and Central Europe Rainer Muenz Erste Bank, Vienna 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, 2007

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Road Map Past trajectories Current demographic situation Divergent population trends Future outlook

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, EU10, EU15 still increasing EU10 has peaked in 1990

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, CEE, =100 EU10 EU15

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Current Situation

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >European Union EU27 Total Population: 491 million - EU15 (old MS)389 million - EU12 (new MS)102 million Foreign-born pop. 41 million - Foreign-born (in%) 8.4%

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Common Trends

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Total Fertility in Europe Children per woman in Europe, 2004

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Total Fertility in Europe Children per woman in Europe, 2004

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Lowest fertility ever recorded in the history of mankind Persistent below replacement levels Development has lead to excess of deaths over births Shrinking native populations >Total Fertility in EU10, CEE

>Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, males

>Life expectancy at birth in Europe, 2004, females

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Life expectancy well below EU average Difference between EU10 and EU15 larger among males than among females Potential for catch-up in Central Europe (see East Germany) >Life expectancy in EU10, CEE

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Balance of births/deaths in Europe, 2004

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Balance of births/deaths in Europe, 2004

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Most EU10/CEE countries report an excess of deaths over births Decline of native population This is likely to continue And this will also become more common amonc EU15 countries >Balance of births/deaths in Europe

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Outlook: Future Total Population

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe,

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe,

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, xxxxxxxxxxx Source: Labour Force Survey 2005 Total population change in Europe,

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Population Trajectories, EU27, EU15, CEE, =100 EU10 EU15

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Outlook: Future Aging

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2005

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; CEC 2005

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; CEC 2005

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >EU 27: Aging in Europe Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2005

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, EU10/CEE, so far, had a younger population than EU15 Population aging takes place at a higher pace in EU10/CEE Mean age in in EU10/CEE is catching up >Aging in EU10/CEE

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, Lowest fertility Rapid demographic aging Considerable population decline >EU10 / CEE

Rainer Muenz Aging and Demographic Change in Europe 2nd OECD World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge and Policy Istanbul, June 28, >Contact