Presentation Equity Markets Remco Lenterman Goldman Sachs International May 2002
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 2Agenda The concept of Equity 11 Why do companies issue shares? 22 Why invest in Equity? 33 Maturity of the Equity Markets 44 The Role of the Intermediary 55 The Role of the Regulator 66
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 3 A Tale of Tulips… 1630 in Holland: Tulips are considered an investment by the population 1636: “Tulipomania” Tulips are traded with a rage that spreads to all classes of the society 1637: Speculation begins… Bulbs are sold faster than they can grow In March, Francois Koster pays DFL 6650 for a few dozen tulips Fortunes are made all over the country Market collapses on the rumour that the tulips are worthless… Panic seizes the market In May 1637, Tulip prices collapse by 99% of the price they traded at two months earlier
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 4Agenda The concept of Equity
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 5 The concept of Equity Bank loans Long-term debt Subordinated debt EquityEquity Claim on profits Claim on profits
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 6Agenda 11 Why do companies issue shares?
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 7 Why do companies issue shares? To Improve the Profile and Visibility of the Company To Raise Capital To Create Currency for Strategic Growth via Acquisition Employee Incentives To Create Long-Term Exit Strategy for Shareholders if they wish to sell
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 8 Equity Market Environment Equity issuance volumes in Europe (in E mn) YearYear Amount E mn Amount Source: Dealogic Bondware. Excluding preference shares, units, rights and funds. Including domestic shares. Amount for 2002 is YTD.
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 9 Equity Market Environment Global Equity Issuance ($bn) by region Source: Euromoney Bondware, SDC $320 $490 $419 $285 $319 $266
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 10Agenda Why invest in Equity?
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 11 Why invest in Equity? Long-term and short-term return Equity/Fixed Income ratios A hypothetical $100 invested in the Dow Jones in 1928 would have been worth over a $1mn in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the Dow Jones in 1928 would have been worth over a $1mn in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the Dow Jones in 1999 would have been worth $91 in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the Dow Jones in 1999 would have been worth $91 in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the US Treasury Bonds in 1928 would have been worth $4,170 in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the US Treasury Bonds in 1928 would have been worth $4,170 in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the US Treasury Bonds in 1999 would have been worth $142 in 2001 A hypothetical $100 invested in the US Treasury Bonds in 1999 would have been worth $142 in 2001
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 12Agenda Maturity of the Equity Markets
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 13 Maturity of the Equity Markets countriescountries Market cap (E trn) Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Market cap / GDP countriescountries Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in Euro trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 14 Maturity of the Equity Markets % Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Absolute Size (Market Cap of broadest Index in €trn) Relative Size as Multiple of GDP Notes: Pension figures as of June 2000, Insurance figures as of December 1999Notes: Datas as of June 2000 Size of pension and insurance markets in Europe as a % of GDP Allocation to equities by pension funds in Europe
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 15Agenda The Role of the Intermediary 55 66
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 16 The Role of the Intermediary CORPORATE ADVISORY INVESTMENT ADVISORY CAPITAL / LIQUIDITY / EXECUTION ADVISORY
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 17 Typical Investor / Intermediary relationship In-house research Portfolio Management Trading Desk - - Investor - - ResearchResearchSalesSales - - Intermediary - - Investment advisory Sales-TradersSales-TradersTradersTraders Execution advisory & Liquidity Execution advisory & Liquidity Execution Advice LiquidityLiquidity
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 18 Why Liquidity is important Immediacy provided to clients Immediacy provided to clients TOP 10 BIDOFFER Typical institution order size Vodafone1,500,000800,000 E 20mn Nokia400,000400,000 Siemens300,000300,000 E 15 mn BP480,000400,000 Telefonica350,000350,000 TotalFinaElf400,000150,000 Ericsson600,000600,000 Glaxosmithkline800,000400,000 Royal Dutch Petroleum 1,500,000250,000 E 15 mn Deutsche Telekom 350,00052,000 E 15 mn Depth of the order book in TOP 10 stocks (in Euro):
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 19Agenda The Role of the Regulator 66
17/09/ :3117/09/ :31 Slide 20 The Role of the Regulator To Ensure Transparency To Preserve Integrity of the market To Protect Investors To Maintain Confidence in the Financial System