Lab Assignment 1 Environments Search Bayes Nets. Problem 1: Peg Solitaire Is Peg Solitaire: Partially observable? Stochastic? Continuous? Adversarial?

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Review of Probability. Definitions (1) Quiz 1.Let’s say I have a random variable X for a coin, with event space {H, T}. If the probability P(X=H) is.
Advertisements

BAYESIAN NETWORKS. Bayesian Network Motivation  We want a representation and reasoning system that is based on conditional independence  Compact yet.
Chapter 4 Probability and Probability Distributions
Excursions in Modern Mathematics, 7e: Copyright © 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. 16 Mathematics of Managing Risks Weighted Average Expected Value.
Conditional Probability and Independence. Learning Targets 1. I can calculate conditional probability using a 2-way table. 2. I can determine whether.
Identifying Conditional Independencies in Bayes Nets Lecture 4.
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 6e © 2005 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 4-1 Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach 6 th Edition Chapter.
1 Introduction to Stochastic Models GSLM Outline  course outline course outline  Chapter 1 of the textbook.
PROBABILISTIC MODELS David Kauchak CS451 – Fall 2013.
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach, 7e © 2008 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 4-1 Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach 7 th Edition Chapter.
CSE 221: Probabilistic Analysis of Computer Systems Topics covered: Discrete random variables Probability mass function Distribution function (Secs )
Review P(h i | d) – probability that the hypothesis is true, given the data (effect  cause) Used by MAP: select the hypothesis that is most likely given.
Random Variables A Random Variable assigns a numerical value to all possible outcomes of a random experiment We do not consider the actual events but we.
Probability: Review TexPoint fonts used in EMF.
Visualizing Events Contingency Tables Tree Diagrams Ace Not Ace Total Red Black Total
Representing Uncertainty CSE 473. © Daniel S. Weld 2 Many Techniques Developed Fuzzy Logic Certainty Factors Non-monotonic logic Probability Only one.
. Approximate Inference Slides by Nir Friedman. When can we hope to approximate? Two situations: u Highly stochastic distributions “Far” evidence is discarded.
1 Bayesian Networks Chapter ; 14.4 CS 63 Adapted from slides by Tim Finin and Marie desJardins. Some material borrowed from Lise Getoor.
CEEN-2131 Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach CEEN-2130/31/32 Using Probability and Probability Distributions.
Chapter 6 Probability.
Expected Value (Mean), Variance, Independence Transformations of Random Variables Last Time:
If we measured a distribution P, what is the tree- dependent distribution P t that best approximates P? Search Space: All possible trees Goal: From all.
Probability and Probability Distributions
Sets, Combinatorics, Probability, and Number Theory Mathematical Structures for Computer Science Chapter 3 Copyright © 2006 W.H. Freeman & Co.MSCS SlidesProbability.
McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright © 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Chapter 4 and 5 Probability and Discrete Random Variables.
QA in Finance/ Ch 3 Probability in Finance Probability.
5.1 Basic Probability Ideas
Probability of Independent and Dependent Events
Binomial Distributions Calculating the Probability of Success.
Introduction In probability, events are either dependent or independent. Two events are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of one event has.
Chapter 5.1 Probability Distributions.  A variable is defined as a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values.  Recall that a variable.
Binomial Experiment A binomial experiment (also known as a Bernoulli trial) is a statistical experiment that has the following properties:
Chap 4-1 A Course In Business Statistics, 4th © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc. A Course In Business Statistics 4 th Edition Chapter 4 Using Probability and Probability.
The Probability Game Week 6, Wednesday. Teams This game affects your Quiz 4 Grade First place:+4 points Second place: +3 points Third place: +2 points.
Week 21 Conditional Probability Idea – have performed a chance experiment but don’t know the outcome (ω), but have some partial information (event A) about.
4.1 Probability Distributions NOTES Coach Bridges.
PROBABILITY, PROBABILITY RULES, AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Review: Bayesian inference  A general scenario:  Query variables: X  Evidence (observed) variables and their values: E = e  Unobserved variables: Y.
Today’s Topics Graded HW1 in Moodle (Testbeds used for grading are linked to class home page) HW2 due (but can still use 5 late days) at 11:55pm tonight.
Inference Algorithms for Bayes Networks
Stat 31, Section 1, Last Time Big Rules of Probability –The not rule –The or rule –The and rule P{A & B} = P{A|B}P{B} = P{B|A}P{A} Bayes Rule (turn around.
1 CMSC 671 Fall 2001 Class #20 – Thursday, November 8.
1 Chapter 8 Random Variables and Probability Distributions IRandom Sampling A.Population 1.Population element 2.Sampling with and without replacement.
Chapter 2: Probability. Section 2.1: Basic Ideas Definition: An experiment is a process that results in an outcome that cannot be predicted in advance.
Conditional Independence As with absolute independence, the equivalent forms of X and Y being conditionally independent given Z can also be used: P(X|Y,
Section 5.3: Independence and the Multiplication Rule Section 5.4: Conditional Probability and the General Multiplication Rule.
CSE (c) S. Tanimoto, 2007 Bayes Nets 1 Bayes Networks Outline: Why Bayes Nets? Review of Bayes’ Rule Combining independent items of evidence General.
Conditional Probability 423/what-is-your-favorite-data-analysis-cartoon 1.
Probability and Probability Distributions. Probability Concepts Probability: –We now assume the population parameters are known and calculate the chances.
Basics of Multivariate Probability
Warm-up How many digits do you need to simulate heads or tails (or even or odd)? 2) To simulate an integer % probability of passing or failing?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Oliver Schulte Machine Learning 726
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Still More Uncertainty
Representing Uncertainty
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 6: Probability: What are the Chances?
Class #16 – Tuesday, October 26
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
M248: Analyzing data Block A UNIT A3 Modeling Variation.
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
An Example of {AND, OR, Given that} Using a Normal Distribution
Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances?
Consider the following problem
Presentation transcript:

Lab Assignment 1 Environments Search Bayes Nets

Problem 1: Peg Solitaire Is Peg Solitaire: Partially observable? Stochastic? Continuous? Adversarial? Play online at:

Problem 2: Loaded Coin Is Loaded Coin: Partially observable? Stochastic? Continuous? Adversarial? The coin above might be fair (0.5 chance of heads, 0.5 chance of tails), or it might be loaded (p chance of heads, 1-p chance of tails, p != 0.5). The Loaded Coin problem is to determine whether the coin is fair or loaded. You don’t need to solve Loaded Coin, but answer the questions on the right.

Problem 3: Maze Traversal Is Maze Traversal: Partially observable? Stochastic? Continuous? Adversarial? O X start goal Maze Traversal: get from the start position to the goal position. Answer the questions about the maze traversal problem on the right.

Problem 4: Search Tree Counting the start node and goal node, how many nodes are expanded if we go 1.Left-to-right a.Breadth-first: b.Depth-first: 2.Right-to-left a.Breadth-first: b.Depth-first: start goal

Problem 5: Search Network Counting the start node and goal node, how many nodes are expanded if we go 1.Left-to-right a.Breadth-first: b.Depth-first: 2.Right-to-left a.Breadth-first: b.Depth-first: start goal

Problem 6: A* Search A B C D start goal The table above shows the state space for a search problem: grid elements A1 through D6. The values in each cell indicate the value of a heuristic function h(x) for that cell grid. 1.Is the heuristic function admissible? 2.Which node will be expanded first: A2 or B1? 3.Which node will be expanded second: B1, C1, A2, A3, or B2? 4.Which node will be expanded third: D1, C2, B3, or A4?

Problem 7: Bayes Rule Assume the following are true regarding binary random variables A and B: P(A) = 0.5 P(B | A) = 0.2 P(B |  A) = 0.8 What is P(A | B)?

Problem 8: Simple Bayes Net P(A) = 0.5  i P(X i | A) = 0.2  i P(X i |  A) = What is P(A | X 1 X 2  X 3 )? 2. What is P(X 3 | X 1 )? A X1X1 X2X2 X3X3

Problem 9: Conditional Independence B  C? B  C | D? B  C | A? B  C | A, D? A BC D

Problem 10: Conditional Independence 2 C  E | A? B  D | C, E? A  C | E? A  C | B? A BD E C

Problem 11: Parameter Counting How many parameters are needed to specify a full joint distribution over 5 binary variables? For the Bayes Net on the left, assuming all 5 variables are binary, how many parameters are needed? A BD E C