Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Defense Overview 26 August 2009 Version 3.1 STAFF BRIEF (18 Slides) As Created by Robert Steele

Defense Intelligence Old & New Cold War-Service-Centric Mission is Big War Only Limited Hard Targets Conventional Forces DoD Rules & Runs Alone Service-Centric Intelligence Marginalized Comms Internal, Secret Unconstrained Funding Acquisition Inept & Wasteful Unilateral Militarism New War-Mission Centric Mission is War in All Its Forms Everything is a Target Unconventional Forces Whole of Government Matters Mission Centric Intelligence Matters More Comms Must be Universal Government Bankrupt for Now Acquisition Must Shine Multinational Multifunctional

HUMINT SIGINTGEO-IMINTMASINTIO OSINT Discipline OSINT Support (Producers) OSINT Service (Consumers) Whole of Government Waging Peace & Commerce Includes Decision-Support to All AOs & Congress Global Law Enforcement & Regulation Global Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Global War Both General & In the Shadows Agriculture, Diplomacy, Economy, Energy, Health, Society, Water Family, Health, Justice, Immigration Stabilization & Reconstruction, Humanitarian Assistance, Disaster Relief, Small Wars All Information in All Languages All the Time All Humans, All Minds, All the Time Shared Raw Information in NRT M4IS2 Hub Direct Support TO OSINT Discipline

OSINT Provides Greatest Satisfaction of EEI at Lowest Cost USG Lacks A Central Repository for All-Source Information What We CAN Afford is a Central Repository for All OSINT Transformation Innovation Sweetspot MASINT IMINT SIGINT STATE HUMINT* OSINT 0% 50% Less Costly More Satisfying Do Not Exist * CIA HUMINT Only. Source : CIA Collection Requirements & Evaluation Staff, 1996

Global Information Grid Meets Reality Universe of Information Neighborhood Granularity Secret Discovery $65B/Yr for 4% At Best Deep Web (English) What Search Finds (75+ Different Engines) (Includes Mis-Information) Source of the Whole: Steve Arnold, CEO Arnold IT Source 4% at best: General Tony Zinni, USMC (Ret)

Where Did We Go Wrong? How Do We Leap Ahead NOW? Foreign Language 33 core, 183 relevant English HUMAN to HUMAN MACHINE SPEED English Foreign Language 33 core, 183 relevant Digital Analog Oral/Historical UN/ NGO CIA/DO FBIS NGA NRO NSA State M4IS2 TS/SCI Status Quo Achievable NOW M4IS2: Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing & Sense-Making

State Targets Lots of Assets Not suitable for redirection Organizational Targets Very Few Assets Individual Targets Virtually No Assets Dr. Cambone got it right: Universal coverage; Neighborhood granularity $65 Billion a Year TS/SCI Tubes $600 Million a Year Very Badly Managed

Raw Available Information Billions with Access to Internet Billions with Cell Phones Totality of Human Intelligence Intelligence Spending as Percent of Program 50 OSINT $ Sucking Chest Wound TIME #

DIOSC Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC) US IC USG One-Way BIG PIPE NRT Bridge to SIPR Raw Open Source In OSINT on Demand Out Raw Open Source In OSINT on Demand Out UN/NGO Two-Way Reachback Military Hub Host Academia Host Commercial Host Civil Society Govt LEA Media NGO

1 2 3

Future Far Future Near History & Current Interests Now Strategic, Operational, Tactical Multinational & Inter-Tribal Information Sharing & Sense-Making Operational Partial Sharing + Inter-Tribal National + Regional Multinational -- Strategic- Operational Strategic Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Shared) Private Answers NOW 30% Need, 20% Cost Recurring Monitoring All Topics Big & Small 40% Need, 10% Cost Levels of Intelligence Investment Herring Triangle Jan Herring, NIO/S&T 1970s Competitive Intelligence Guru

10 High-Level Threats to Humanity 21 st Century Demands Defense in Depth Poverty Disease Ecology Inter-State War Civil War Genocide Other Atrocities Prolfieration Terrorism Trans. Crime Agriculture Diplomacy Economy Education Energy Family Health Immigration Justice Security Society Water 1 2 Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards 3 0 0

ENERGY TerrorismProliferation Poverty Infectious Disease Environmental Degradation Inter-State Conflict & Civil War Genocide & Other Atrocities Transnational Crime & 5 6 & Agriculture TIME Diplomacy Economy & Immigration Education Family & Society Health Justice & Security Water High-Level Threats to Humanity True Costs Known Energized Reality-Based Policies Energetically Waging Peace for Profit

Re-Focusing Defense Intelligence Center Collection on HUMINT-OSINT 1.Directorate of Open Sources & Methods (DO) 2.DH to status as god-father of DO 3.Global Virtual Translation Network within DO 4.New ATL/OTE and IG Support Branches 5.Plan for MILCON OSINT/MDSC Center in NCA 6.Create Peace Support Network with USIP 7.Civil Affairs Brigade Integrated into ConOps 1.Office of Information-Sharing Agreements 2.Co-located with NDIC and Library 3.Multinational Decision-Support Centre (MDSC) 4.Brief 90 Nations, invite 1-3 person rotationals 5.Create unclassified pit/cave at MDSC 6.Create NRT feed of all DO raw information to SIPR 7.Create Multinational Analytic Support Brigade

Re-Structuring Defense Intelligence Organizational Intelligence through Processing 1.DoD Does Not Do Any of These Well 2.DIA Has a Chance to Create a Pilot that Does 3.Cell Phones and Rapid SMS are the Field Key 4.Harvesting Commercial Information Also Key 5.DIA is Can Pioneer Organizational Intelligence 6.Africa, Central Asia, South America all Prospects 7.We Can Demonstrate Kinetic Value of OSINT 1.OSINT Program Line Will Allow Fresh Start 2.Get Allocations Right in First Place 3.Strategic Forecasting with EarthGame 4.Global Intelligence Council, Multinational 5.Global Help Desk within DIOSC and MDSC 6.Global Network of Issue Monitors Online 7.Common Global View of the Battlefield

Re-Vitalizing Defense Intelligence Analytics Must be WholeIn Depth 1.QDR Will Get It Wrong Without Integral Analysis 2.DoD Today Optimizes for 10% of the Threat 3.DoD Today Obsessing on Two Small Boxes (0) 4.Ten High-Level Threats Demand DoD Respect 5.Twelve Policies Reduce DoD Exposure & Expense 6.Eight Challengers will Determine the Future 7.What We Can Do Is Show Them the Way Forward 1.Holistic Analysis Centered on Energy 2.Threats are Related to One Another 3.Policies Must be Harmonized within USG 4.Spending Must be Harmonized by Issue Area 5.USG Can Use OSINT to Influence Others $$$ 6.Global Range of Needs Table Available 7.Information Peacekeeping & Arbitrage

History 1.OMB Staff OK with $125M/Year IOC 2.USD(I) Offered USSOCOM $2B/Year FOC 3.OSINT Moribund Since BGen Stewart left 4.Convergence of Players Occurring Recommendations 1.DIA elevate DIOSPO to Direct Report/DO 2.OSINT Program Line Across DoD 3.$125M IOC from 1 October USMC and USSOCOM as Pilot Partners 5.MILCON for Quantico OSINT Center inclusive of Multinational Decision-Support Center