INTERMARKET ANALYSIS USING EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS IN ASSET ALLOCATION & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT John J. Murphy Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com.

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Presentation transcript:

INTERMARKET ANALYSIS USING EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS IN ASSET ALLOCATION & PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT John J. Murphy Chief Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com

Intermarket Changes The Deflation Scenario Bonds and Stocks Decoupled The Resurgence of Gold The Role of Oil Asset Allocation Economic Forecasting

DOLLAR INDEX NEARS LONG-TERM CHART SUPPORT December 30, 2004

FALLING DOLLAR IS BULLISH FOR COMMODITIES March 23, 2005

GOLD AND THE DOLLAR ARE LINKED March 23, 2005

DOLLAR PULLS BACK FROM TOP OF TRADING RANGE April 18, 2005

EURO AND GOLD BOUNCE OFF 200 DAY LINES April 18, 2005

+$40 OIL COINCIDES WITH JP MORGAN TOP April 1, 2005

EXXON MOBIL RISES AS WALMART FALLS April 1, 2005

WHY NASDAQ LEADERSHIP IS IMPORTANT October 1 st, 2004 NASDAQ 100/ S&P 500 Ratio

Sector Rotations ▲CRB Favors Basic Materials, Cyclicals ▲Bonds Favor Financials and Housing Late Cycle = Energy and Staples Early Cycle = Tech. and Transports

IT’S TIME FOR CONSUMER STAPLES TO START SHOWING LEADERSHIP – THEY FOLLOW ENERGY December 14, 2004

CONSUMER STAPLES AND ENERGY ARE TOP PERFORMERS FOR 2005 TECHNOLOGY IS THE WORST January 19, 2005

CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR TESTS 2004 HIGH January 19, 2005

FIRST QUARTER SECTOR RANKINGS PAINT NEGATIVE PICTURE April 1, 2005

RETAILERS LEAD MARKET LOWER April 1, 2005

CYCLICAL BREAKDOWN BAD FOR THE ECONOMY April 14, 2005

HEALTHCARE TAKES TOP SPOT IN APRIL May 2, 2005

DRUG STOCKS GET BETTER May 2, 2005

OIL SERVICE INDEX UP AGAINST LONG TERM SUPPLY April 27, 2005

Intermarket Implications Post-Boom Decade: Not Good Paper ► Hard Assets Using ETFs For Asset Allocation Importance of Charts – The Big View TA + Economics + Fundamentals

Thank You!