Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-1 Chapter 21
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-2 Chapter Summary Objective: To discuss specific techniques used in active portfolio management Indexing and Asset allocation The Treynor-Black Model Hedging Performance attribution procedures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-3 Indexing Passive vs Active investing Equity indexing - ETFs Bond indexing – cellular portfolio Money-market funds Mixed strategies – timing, sector funds
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-4 Asset Allocation Baseline allocation (e.g ) Modified weightings for timing Tactical asset allocation (relative predicted returns by asset class)
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-5 Summary Reminder Objective: To discuss specific techniques used in active portfolio management Indexing and Asset allocation The Treynor-Black Model Hedging Performance attribution procedures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-6 Model used to combine actively managed stocks with a passively managed portfolio Using a reward-to-risk measure that is similar to the the Sharpe measure, the optimal combination of active and passive portfolios can be determined Treynor-Black Model
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-7 Analysts will have a limited ability to find a select number of undervalued securities Portfolio managers can estimate the expected return and risk, and the abnormal performance for the actively- managed portfolio Portfolio managers can estimate the expected risk and return parameters for a broad market (passively managed) portfolio Treynor-Black Model: Assumptions
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-8 Reward to Variability Measures Passive Portfolio:
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide 21-9 Appraisal Ratio: A = Alpha for the active portfolio (e) A = Unsystematic standard deviation for active portfolio Reward to Variability Measures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Combined Portfolio: Reward to Variability Measures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Treynor-Black Allocation M A P E(r) CML CAL RfRf
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Sharpe Measure will increase with added ability to pick stocks Slope of CAL>CML (r p -r f )/ p > (r m -r f )/ p P is the portfolio that combines the passively managed portfolio with the actively managed portfolio The combined efficient frontier has a higher return for the same level of risk Summary Points: Treynor-Black Model
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Summary Reminder Objective: To discuss specific techniques used in active portfolio management Indexing and Asset allocation The Treynor-Black Model Hedging Performance attribution procedures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Hedging Systematic Risk To protect against a decline in level stock prices, short the appropriate number of futures index contracts Less costly and quicker to use the index contracts Use the beta for the portfolio to determine the hedge ratio
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Hedging Systematic Risk: Text Example Portfolio Beta =.8S&P 60 = 400 Decrease = 2.5%S&P 60 falls to 390 Portfolio Value = $30 million Project loss if market declines by 2.5% = (.8) (2.5) = 2% 2% of $30 million = $600,000 Each S&P 60 index contract will change $2,000 for a 2.5% change in the index
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Hedge Ratio: Text Example
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Uses of Interest Rate Hedges Owners of fixed-income portfolios protecting against a rise in rates Corporations planning to issue debt securities protecting against a rise in rates Investor hedging against a decline in rates for a planned future investment Exposure for a fixed-income portfolio is proportional to modified duration
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Hedging Interest Rate Risk: Text Example Portfolio value = $10 million Modified duration = 9 years If rates rise by 10 basis points (.1%) Change in value = ( 9 ) (.1%) =.9% or $90,000 Present value of a basis point (PVBP) = $90,000 / 10 = $9,000
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Hedge Ratio: Text Example
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Summary Reminder Objective: To discuss specific techniques used in active portfolio management Indexing and Asset allocation The Treynor-Black Model Hedging Performance attribution procedures
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Decomposing overall performance into components Components are related to specific elements of performance Example components Broad Allocation Industry Security Choice Up and Down Markets Performance Attribution
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Set up a ‘Benchmark’ or ‘Bogey’ portfolio Use indexes for each component Use target weight structure Process of Attributing Performance to Components
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Calculate the return on the ‘Bogey’ and on the managed portfolio Explain the difference in return based on component weights or selection Summarize the performance differences into appropriate categories Process of Attributing Performance to Components
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Where B is the bogey portfolio and p is the managed portfolio Formula for Attribution
Bodie Kane Marcus Perrakis RyanINVESTMENTS, Fourth Canadian Edition Copyright © McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited, 2003 Slide Contributions for Performance Contribution for asset allocation (w pi - w Bi ) r Bi +Contribution for security selection w pi (r pi - r Bi ) = Total Contribution from asset class w pi r pi -w Bi r Bi