1 Update on The Survey of Income and Program Participation Presentation to the Association of Public Data Users Annual Conference September 25, 2009 David Johnson US Census Bureau

2 The Evolution of a Phoenix

3 Congresswomen Maloney hails 25th Anniversary of SIPP, Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Participation "October, 2008 marks 25 years of SIPP data collection. The vital data collected by career professionals at the Census Bureau allows for the evaluation of the efficiency and effectiveness of government programs and gives us a more robust picture of how well we are doing as a nation in helping families progress through tough economic challenges" “The SIPP allows Congress to allocate scarce government resources and save tax dollars. It’s fitting that during this national economic crisis we draw attention to this important diagnostic tool which helps us understand how we can best provide assistance to families in need.”

4 The Unique Value of SIPP To provide a nationally representative sample for evaluating: –annual and sub-annual dynamics of income –movements into and out of government transfer programs –family and social context of individuals and households –interactions between these items

5 SIPP Basics National panel survey – Since 1984 with sample size between about 11,000 to 45,000 interviewed households The duration of each panel from 2½ yrs to 4 yrs The SIPP sample is a multistage-stratified sample of the U.S. civilian noninstitutionalized population The survey uses a 4-month recall period – 3 interviews / year The sample is divided into 4 rotation groups for monthly interviewing Interviews are conducted by personal visit and by decentralized telephone

6 Selected Results from SIPP About 28 percent of households in the bottom quintile in 2004 moved up to a higher quintile in 2007, and 27 percent of households in the top quintile in 2004 moved to a lower quintile in About 31 percent of the population had at least one spell of poverty lasting 2 or more months from 2004 to percent of the population living in poverty all 48 months of the period from About 28 percent of non-elderly citizens were uninsured for at least one month between

7 National Academy of Sciences National Research Council Committee on National Statistics Panel Report Reengineering the Survey of Income and Program Participation Constance F. Citro and John Karl Scholz, Editors July 2009

8 CNSTAT Report – Importance of SIPP Conclusion 2-1: The Survey of Income and Program Participation is a unique source of information for a representative sample of household members on the intrayear dynamics of income, employment, and program eligibility and participation, together with related demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. This information remains as vital today for evaluating and improving government programs addressed to social and economic needs of the U.S. population as it did when the survey began 25 years ago.

9 Celebrating 25 years of SIPP Monthly participation rates, May-Dec 2008

10 Celebrating 25 years of SIPP Results of Tax rebate question, 2008

11 Celebrating 25 years of SIPP Monthly Uninsured rates and Monthly Poverty rates, May – Nov 2009

12 Our work on SIPP Improvements Improve Processing System and Collection Instrument Develop Event History Calendar (EHC) Instrument Examine use of administrative records data to supplement and evaluate survey data Continue meetings with stakeholders, development of survey content, and use of reimbursable supplements

13 Timeline for SIPP Development 2008 paper EHC Sep --- Jan --- May --- Sep --- Jan --- May --- Sep --- Jan --- May --- Sep --- Jan --- May --- Sep --- Jan --- May --- Sep --- Jan SIPP Re-Engineering Instrument Dev. Processing and Evaluation SIPP 2008 Panel – Waves 1 – 10 collection Eval. Analysis Systems Tests - Preparation 2009 Re-engineered SIPP automated Prototype Reference Period Field Activities 2012/13 SIPP Re-Engineering Instrument Refinement Systems Tests - Preparation 2013 Reengineered SIPP Reference Period Field Activities SIPP 2008 Panel – Waves 1 – 13 data release Data Gap SIPP nd automated prototype Reference Period Field Act. SIPP 2004 Panel data release Waves 11 – 13

14 Re-engineered Survey Format/Content Survey Instrument – –Annual administration (Jan/Feb) –BLAISE (plus EHC) –Follow movers Content –Responding users indicated a broad need for most of SIPP core content. Calendar – –Improvement on other designs by integrating more closely with the instrument programming language.

15 Statements from the CNSTAT Report: On EHC methodology As discussed in Belli (1998), in an event history calendar, “respondents are encouraged to consider various events that constitute their personal pasts as contained within broader thematic streams of events. Not only can respondents not the interrelationship of events within the same themes (top-down and sequential retrieval) but, depending on which themes are represented by the calendar, respondents can also not the interrelationships among events that exist with different themes (parallel retrieval).”

16 Statements from the CNSTAT Report: The Advantages of the EHC Another potential advantage of the event history calendar approach, if it proves capable of generating high-quality monthly data, is that the first year of income data could be collected with no added sample attrition beyond the loss of households that refuse to participate in the survey at all. Under the current design, annual income must be aggregated across four waves in order to have a common 12-month reference period for the four rotation groups

17 CNSTAT Report on Administrative Records Conclusion 3-4: Indirect uses of administrative records are those uses, such as evaluation of data quality and improvement of imputation models for missing data, in which the administrative data are never recorded on survey records. They are advantageous for a reengineered SIPP in that they should have little or no adverse effects on timeliness or the needed level of confidentiality protection of SIPP data products.

18 Use of Administrative Records National-level data –SIPP linked with administrative records data at the person level –Examining imputation methods Creation of SIPP Synthetic Beta File matched with SSA data State-level data –Many social programs administered at the state- level –SIPP data linked to social program data from states, e.g., Maryland, Illinois, Texas, New York, Wisconsin

19 CNSTAT Report on Administrative Records Recommendation 3-2: The Census Bureau, in close consultation with data users, should develop a strategy for acquiring selected state administrative records, recognizing that it will be costly and probably unfeasible to acquire all relevant records from all or even most states. The bureau’s acquisition strategy should be guided by such criteria as the importance of the income source for lower income households, particularly in times of economic distress, and the relative ease of acquiring the records.

20 FOOD STAMPS (Texas Only) -- % Participation for Each Month of CY2007 According to the SIPP and EHC Reports

21 FOOD STAMPS (Texas Only) -- % Participation for Each Month of CY2007 According to the SIPP and EHC Reports and Administrative Records data

22 Statements from Recent CNSTAT Report On the EHC field test The development and implementation of the prototype experiment is a valuable next step in developing the information base needed for the reengineered SIPP. If funding during FY2010 and FY2011 is available, this prototype would examine issues that arise with locating movers when interviews are 1 year rather than 4 months apart, as well as the consistency of data reports between interviews that are 1 year apart.

23 Design of the 2010 Test 8,000 Sample Addresses –Target 6,500 Complete HH Interviews “High Poverty” Sample Stratum State-Based Design –With possible access to admin records –TX, IL, MD, NY, WI, CA Field Period: Early Jan - mid March 2010 – Field Reps –FR Training in Dec/Jan

24 New Electronic EHC for 2010 Field Test

25 Statements from Recent CNSTAT Report: On Outreach A key element of reengineering SIPP and keeping it relevant to user needs concerns the survey content. In this regard, we commend the Census Bureau’s efforts to reach out to the user community by asking users to comment on “content matrices” to help identify which portions of the survey are critical to users and to provide input on aspects of SIPP that could be improved. The degree of recent interaction between the Census Bureau and the SIPP user community is exemplary.

26 URL: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographics Survey Division, Survey of Income and Program Participation branch Census Bureau Links: Home · Search · Subjects A-Z · FAQs · Data Tools · Catalog · Census 2000 · Quality · Privacy Policy · Contact Us HomeSearchSubjects A-ZFAQsData ToolsCatalog Census 2000QualityPrivacy PolicyContact Us Updating SIPP User Guide