Market Bias Forecast April 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

What is a Market Bias Forecast? In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a method for successfully forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices. Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors’ perspectives. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Market Bias The charts on the following pages will show the estimated bias strengths from the bullish (long) and bearish (short) perspectives. A positive number is good for that perspective, and a negative number is not. To the right of the charts is the forecast for that commodity derived from the composite bias. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

April 2007 – Summary Theme: Stormy and volatile. Socioeconomic sentiment turning pessimistic. Oil and Gold rallying mid to late month in the midst of a US dollar and equity market meltdown. This combination likely signals increase in Middle East tensions or the perception thereof. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil Crude Oil starts out the month down, turns mixed, and then rallies big from the middle of the month. The last few days of the month going into May the rally tops out. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil price

Gold Similar pattern to Crude. Starts out down, turns mixed, then rallies around mid-month. Gold rally tops out sooner than Crude turning down and mixed into May. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Gold price

The Stock Market A little upside in the first week, turns mixed and then down hard mid to late month. Extremely negative bias going into May. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

S&P price

US Dollar Index An overall bad month for the dollar, with the biggest losses the 2 nd half of the month. A moderately negative bias going into May. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

US Dollar Index price

April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc. Market Bias Summary - volatility An abnormally rapid increase in the price of crude mid-late month… why?

April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc. Market Bias Summary - price According to this forecast, crude oil will approach $78 by the end of the month.

April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc. Market Bias Summary - price … while the dollar and stock market is in serious decline (S&P down 4%).

Hypothesis While we are not economists, such a rapid positive change in oil prices at the same time as the stock market is in decline and there is growing concern of recession seems to signal either a geopolitical event, or the perception of a significant increase in the risk of a geopolitical event around the middle of April. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Preparations / Recommendations We are currently limited to forecasting one month in advance. This restricts options for preparations for any potential social instability. Market awareness could allow some financial cushion for those who trade or invest in commodities or equity indices. April 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Disclaimer A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice. Should you find our forecast beneficial please consider supporting our research. Our sole source of funding is donations and grants from people like you. More information can be found on our website at

Have a great month!