SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS OCTOBER 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS OCTOBER 2009

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA’S REAL ESTATE CYCLE… YEARS

DISTRESSED HOUSING TRENDS AND FORECASTS

DISTRESSED HOUSING “SHADOW INVENTORY”

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION Record Low Construction Activity

NEW HOUSING SUPPLY WITH ‘SHADOW’ INVENTORY

WHAT DRIVES THE NEXT ECONOMIC CYCLE?

STIMULUS SPENDING California gets $24B in State Relief California gets a Large Share of Infrastructure

MEDICAL/PHARMACEUTICAL/ BIO-TECH

RENEWABLE ENERGY PHOTOVOLTAIC ROOFING ‘OFF-THE-GRID’ BATTERY-RUN HOUSING PARABOLIC VOLTAIC ‘FARMS’ SOLAR / ELECTRICAL VEHICLES

ENERGY TECHNOLOGY Lawrence Livermore Lab began project in 2001 ($2B spent thus far) World’s most powerful lasers focus on bb-sized hydrogen wafer. Ignites ‘mini sun’ that generates 500+ trillion watts of peak power Clean energy 1 st fusion power plant slated for 2030

EMPLOYMENT

12-MONTH JOB CHANGE

UNEMPLOYMENT

HOUSING PERMIT ACTIVITY

HOUSING CONSTRUCTION PATTERNS

NEW HOUSING SUPPLY WITH ‘SHADOW’ INVENTORY

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES

POPULATION GROWTH

HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH

HOUSING MARKET SUMMARY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Southern California Housing

HOUSING MARKET FIVE-YEAR FORECASTS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY

HOUSING OVER/UNDER SUPPLY

HOUSING VALUATION

HOUSING OVER/UNDER VALUATION

MEDIAN HOME PRICES

California Long-Term Forecast Housing Price Appreciation Ideal Land Acquisition = Yr Ideal Market Entry = Yr

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Southern California’s economy is in turmoil, with unprecedented job losses, but job losses are easing. Housing Construction is at an all-time low. Housing Affordability is an all-time high. Distressed Housing Inventory is burning off at a rapid rate. Significant levels (but not a flood) of distressed land inventory will soon be released. Banks will soon begin to work with Asset Management Teams. Economic growth resumes the latter half of Year Marginal price appreciation begins in Year 2010, and builds toward another cycle of double-digit appreciation.

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