6 August 2009 Buffalo District Planning Conference Flood Plain Management 2050

Gilbert F. White

ASFPM Foundation Forums The First Assembly of the Forum, September 2004, "Is The 1% Chance Flood Standard Sufficient?" The Second Assembly, November 2007, "Floodplain Management 2050"

In White's 1942 dissertation - He iterated eight ways for humans to adjust to flooding: 1. Elevation 2. Flood Abatement (watershed management 3. Flood Protection (levees, channels, etc.) 4. Emergency Measures 5. Structural Alterations (floodproofing, codes) 6. Land use (zoning) 7. Relief (public or private) 8. Insurance (indemnification)

The Second Gilbert F. White National Flood Policy Forum Theme: Floodplain Management 2050 Held at George Washington University, Washington, D.C., December 6-7, 2007 Attended by 92 invited nationally and internationally known experts in resource management; engineering; environmental sciences; planning; risk analysis; the law; building and construction; emergency management; finance; communication; transportation; and policy analysis

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Demographic Drivers Exploding population in the United States (fastest-growing country on the planet except for India and Pakistan); up to 460 million by 2050 People are moving into high-risk areas, such as along the coasts We will see more intense development of all types to meet the needs and demands of our largest population In 2030, there will be billion square feet of new development in the United States, about 46% more than existed in 2000.

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Climate Change Climate is changing, bringing increased flood risk - more highly variable weather, stronger storms, and sea level rise in many places in the United States Environmental Degradation The accumulated impacts of decades of wasteful land use and mining of water-related resources is tipping the balance against environmental equilibrium

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Shifts in Governance People expect governments at all levels to do more, yet they shrink from personal responsibility Governments have more to do, with less money "The federal budget of the future could be almost entirely consumed by entitlements and payment on the national debt"

Drivers of Change at Work Today That Affect Floodplain Management Other Drivers We are reaching the end of the design life of much of our national infrastructure - roads, bridges, stormwater systems, dams, levees, water facilities Science and technology are tending to outstrip the ability of the public and policy makers to understand and make appropriate decisions

Where Will We Be in 2050 If Business-As-Usual Prevails? Flood losses will be horrific Ecosystem degradation will worsen All hope of sustainable communities will be lost Quality of life will be diminished

Where We Could Be in 2050 We could see land and water as precious resources, so that the natural and beneficial functions, of floodplains, wetlands, and coastal area are protected Natural mitigation of flooding could take place continually and naturally All new development could be designed and built to have no adverse impact on flood levels, sedimentation, erosion, riparian or coastal habitat, or other community-designated values The market could strongly favor sustainable development, so that floodprone construction rarely occurs

ACTION GUIDELINES

Avoidance of floodprone and/or ecologically sensitive areas should be axiomatic. Move communities or portions thereof that are in high flood risk. No adverse impacts. Move critical facilities out of flood plains. In all future projects, long term objectives must be an integral component. Any short term objections must support the long term objectives. Preserve and restore NBF. 1. Make Room for Rivers, Oceans, and Adjacent Loads

Reform all Federal programs that fund, subsidize, or promote development or redevelopment in flood plains. Federal agencies should adhere closely to E.O and Full actuarial insurance rates that are fully commensurate with the actual risk should be implemented. Some areas are too hazardous to insure. 2. Reverse Perverse Incentives in Government Programs

National priority to reclaim lost riparian and coastal resources Increase recognition for NBF. No building zones in high hazard areas in coastal and riverine flood plain. 3. Restore and Enhance the Natural, Beneficial Functions of Riverine and Coastal Areas.

A National Flood Risk Management Policy is needed to provide consistent direction across all programs dealing with flood mitigation and flood recovery. Congressional "bail out" funding to provide recovery and rebuild to those that did not have flood insurance or who live in or have property in flood plains should end. Consider changing the water resources Federal interest focus from economic development to sustainability 4. Generate a Renaissance in Water Resources Governance

Focus on nonstructural alternatives first rather than today's common practice of structural alternatives first. The 100-year standard is no longer appropriate. 500-year minimum standard for urban areas. No more 100-year levees Consider flood plain regulation and flood insurance in areas "protected" by levees. 4. Generate a Renaissance in Water Resources Governance

A thorough, nationwide examination of water sources related risk is critical. All identification of flood risks and resources should be based on future conditions. Flood risk maps must be current and accurate Areas "protected" by flood risk reduction measures must have residual risk fully conveyed. 5. Identify Risks and Resources and Communicate at Public and Individual Levels

Flood risk communications must be a highest priority in terms of funding and done on an annual basis at a minimum. It must be done at all levels. Capitalize on advances in technology to communicate risk and the fragility of water resources. Need a nationwide inventory of flood prone structures and risk. 5. Identify Risks and Resources and Communicate at Public and Individual Levels (cont.)

Mandatory all hazards insurance for all insurable properties based on full actuarial risk. Promote individual and community responsibility to reduce risk. Incentives need to be provided to communities in the form of reduced project cost share if those communities are proactive in reducing flood risk beyond the national standard. Responsibility for the flood risk and damage for flood plain development rests with the developer, the individual, and the land use decision making authority. 6. Assume Personal and Public Responsibility

Year 2050 What Will The Headlines Be?

Great Flood of Horrific damage and deaths Huge amount of funding needed to recover but none available. Business As Usual Scenario

Great Flood of No damage, no deaths Disaster fund remains untapped Achieving Minimum Flood Risk in 2050

Nonstructural Measures Are a Vital Key

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Nonstructural Flood Proofing Committee U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Nonstructural Flood Proofing Committee